本文關鍵詞： 資源稟賦 資源詛咒 模型不確定性 貝葉斯模型平均 制度　出處：《東南大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：資源稟賦與經(jīng)濟增長的關系問題是經(jīng)濟學研究的經(jīng)典話題,也是一個極富爭議性的研究論題。早期的研究者大多支持資源優(yōu)勢論的觀點,而在上世紀中后期,隨著大批的資源豐裕國家陷入增長困境,"資源詛咒"學說開始獲得主流學界的關注及認同�？v觀既有研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)研究者在"資源詛咒"是否存在及其產(chǎn)生機理的問題上,尚存在較大的爭議,國內(nèi)的研究情況亦是如此。然而,不可否認的是,對于我國這樣一個資源總量豐裕而在國家內(nèi)部分布又十分不均勻的國家而言,尋找一種可行的方法破除這種學術界僵持不下的局面,探索資源稟賦與經(jīng)濟增長的真實關系,以期在合理利用自然資源的同時實現(xiàn)區(qū)域均衡發(fā)展,避免陷入"資源詛咒"的桎梏,是十分重要和迫切需要解決的問題。在此基礎上,本文認為現(xiàn)有的研究結論存在較大分歧的原因在于存在模型與變量的不確定性問題,并決定引入貝葉斯模型平均方法(Bayesian Model Averaging,BMA)重新檢驗國際以及國內(nèi)層面的資源稟賦與經(jīng)濟增長的關系問題,這在同類研究中尚不多見。經(jīng)過研究,本文發(fā)現(xiàn),無論在國際以及國內(nèi)層面,BMA方法均支持"資源詛咒"不存在的結論。同時,對于國際層面以制度質(zhì)量水平為劃分依據(jù)的分樣本研究表明,制度質(zhì)量低且經(jīng)濟發(fā)展嚴重依賴資源產(chǎn)業(yè)的國家,較易引發(fā)"資源詛咒";國內(nèi)層面以東中西部地區(qū)為劃分依據(jù)的分樣本研究表明,西部地區(qū)由于產(chǎn)業(yè)單一、制造業(yè)衰退、人力資源儲備不足以及技術及發(fā)展的落后,較易出現(xiàn)"資源詛咒"現(xiàn)象。在此基礎上,本文給出了相對應的解決方案。
[Abstract]:The relationship between resource endowment and economic growth is a classic topic of economic research and a controversial research topic. Most of the early researchers supported the view of resource advantage theory, but in the middle and late of 0th century, With a large number of resource-rich countries falling into the dilemma of growth, the theory of "resource curse" has begun to gain attention and approval from the mainstream academic circles. Throughout the existing studies, it is found that researchers are concerned about the existence of "resource curse" and its mechanism. There is still a great deal of controversy, and the same is true of domestic research. However, it is undeniable that for a country such as China, where the total amount of resources is abundant and the distribution is very uneven within the country, To find a feasible way to break the deadlock in academic circles and explore the true relationship between resource endowment and economic growth in order to realize regional balanced development while utilizing natural resources rationally. To avoid falling into the shackles of "resource curse" is a very important and urgent problem to be solved. On this basis, this paper holds that the reason for the great divergence of existing research conclusions lies in the uncertainty of models and variables. It is also decided to introduce Bayesian Model averaging method to re-examine the relationship between resource endowment and economic growth at the international and domestic levels, which is rarely seen in similar studies. Both international and domestic BMA methods support the conclusion that "resource curse" does not exist. Countries with low institutional quality and heavy dependence on resource industries for their economic development are likely to trigger a "resource curse". A sample study on the east, west and central and western regions of China shows that the manufacturing industry in the western region is declining because of a single industry. The shortage of human resource reserve and the backwardness of technology and development make it easy to appear the phenomenon of "resource curse". On this basis, the corresponding solution is given in this paper.
【學位授予單位】：東南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F124.1;F205

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