本文選題：跨年度預算平衡機制 + 中期財政規(guī)劃��； 參考：《首都經濟貿易大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,隨著中國的經濟增速放緩,財政收支矛盾進一步加劇,各級政府面臨著更嚴峻的債務風險。然而未來一段時間內我國公共支出和投資規(guī)模仍呈現出大規(guī)模上升趨勢,這將導致財政支出壓力大幅攀升,加劇了對我國財政制度抗壓能力的考驗。傳統(tǒng)的年度預算平衡機制存在較多問題,不僅無法起到熨平經濟波動的作用,反倒給經濟運行帶來更大的風險。實踐證明,跨年度預算平衡機制可以有效克服傳統(tǒng)年度預算存在的弊端,因此當前預算管理模式改革是朝著跨年度預算平衡機制與中期財政規(guī)劃的方向發(fā)展。本文首先介紹了跨年度預算平衡機制的內涵及理論基礎,并對其客觀存在的必要性進行深入探析。其次,本文深入剖析了跨年度預算平衡機制在我國實踐的難點及存在的問題,充分借鑒了西方發(fā)達國家跨年度預算平衡機制改革的成功經驗。最后,為進一步完善我國跨年度預算平衡機制改革,本文提出了應繼續(xù)提高中期財政收支預測水平,做好跨年度預算與宏觀經濟政策的銜接工作,進一步提高跨年度預算在執(zhí)行中的法律地位和效力,完善專項轉移支付定期評估和退出機制等政策建議。另外,相關配套措施也需進一步完善,應建立跨年度預算績效指標評價體系,并繼續(xù)深化權責發(fā)生制下政府綜合財務報告制度改革。本文針對跨年度預算編制的最大難點——中期財政收支預測,利用經過季節(jié)調整后的財政收支月度數據,通過建立ARIMA模型進行預測,結合經驗分析提出相對準確的預測方法,為保障跨年度預算平衡機制順利實施提供有價值的參考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as China's economic growth slows and fiscal revenue and expenditure conflicts intensify, governments at all levels are facing more severe debt risks. However, in the future, the scale of public expenditure and investment in China will continue to show a large-scale upward trend, which will lead to a sharp rise in the pressure of fiscal expenditure, which has intensified the test of the ability of our fiscal system to resist pressure. There are many problems in the traditional annual budget balance mechanism, not only can not play the role of ironing the economic fluctuations, but also bring greater risks to the economic operation. Practice has proved that the inter-annual budget balance mechanism can effectively overcome the shortcomings of the traditional annual budget, so the current budget management model reform is towards the cross-annual budget balance mechanism and medium-term financial planning direction. This paper first introduces the connotation and theoretical basis of the inter-annual budget balance mechanism, and probes into the necessity of its objective existence. Secondly, this paper deeply analyzes the difficulties and problems in the practice of cross-annual budget balance mechanism in our country, and fully draws lessons from the successful experience of cross-annual budget balance mechanism reform in western developed countries. Finally, in order to further improve the reform of the inter-annual budget balance mechanism in China, this paper puts forward that we should continue to improve the level of medium-term fiscal revenue and expenditure forecasting, and do a good job in linking the cross-annual budget and macroeconomic policies. We should further improve the legal status and effectiveness of the inter-annual budget and improve the periodic evaluation and withdrawal mechanism of special transfer payments. In addition, the relevant supporting measures need to be further improved, the inter-annual budget performance indicators evaluation system should be established, and continue to deepen the accrual basis of the government comprehensive financial reporting system reform. In this paper, according to the biggest difficulty of the inter-annual budget preparation, the medium-term fiscal revenue and expenditure forecast, using the monthly data of fiscal revenue and expenditure after seasonally adjusted, through the establishment of ARIMA model to forecast, combined with empirical analysis to put forward a relatively accurate forecasting method. To ensure the smooth implementation of the cross-annual budget balance mechanism to provide a valuable reference.
【學位授予單位】：首都經濟貿易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812.3

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本文編號：1836007