【摘要】：本文通過偏相關分析的統(tǒng)計方法,對通脹預期與真實價格之間的關系進行了數(shù)量分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),通脹預期與消費價格指數(shù)存在相互的正向作用。通脹預期的形成具有短期特征,對未來物價的判斷更多地依賴最近時段的環(huán)比物價水平,而通脹預期對后期物價指數(shù)特別是同比物價指數(shù)具有長期影響。以房屋和股票為代表的環(huán)比資產(chǎn)價格變動對通脹預期的形成具有正向作用,但通脹預期對后期資產(chǎn)價格走勢不存在反作用。
[Abstract]:Through the statistical method of partial correlation analysis, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the relationship between inflation expectations and real prices. The study found that inflation expectations and consumer price indices have a positive effect on each other. The formation of inflation expectations has short-term characteristics, and the judgment of future prices depends more on the recent month-on-month price levels, while inflation expectations have a long-term impact on the late price index, especially the year-on-year price index. The month-on-month asset price change represented by housing and stocks has a positive effect on the formation of inflation expectations, but inflation expectations have no negative effect on the trend of asset prices in the later period.
【作者單位】： 上海立信會計學院經(jīng)貿學院;中國人民銀行上�？偛�;
【基金】：教育部人文社會科學研究項目“全球流動性沖擊對中國經(jīng)濟的影響與政策選擇”(編號10YJC790376) 上海市教委科研創(chuàng)新重點項目(編號:11ZS185),上海市教委重點學科項目(編號:J51702)
【分類號】：F822.5;F726
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本文編號：2501115