【摘要】：隨著中國城市化水平的提高,流動人口的增加,使得在中國的商品住房市場中存在著巨大的購房需求。但是過高的房價使得潛在的購房群體買不起住房。另外,商品住房市場的狀況和宏觀經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展緊密相關(guān),商品住房市場的投資過熱,會引起經(jīng)濟的不平衡發(fā)展,過高的房價可能引起房地產(chǎn)泡沫。中國房地產(chǎn)中的問題已經(jīng)成為重大的社會問題、民生問題、經(jīng)濟問題。在這種背景下,國家出臺了差別化信貸政策,試圖對這些問題進行解決。 本文總的研究目標是分析差別化信貸政策對成都商品住房的影響。在這一總的目標之下,本文要回答的問題是國家出臺的差別化信貸政策的目標是什么,測量成都商品住房市場發(fā)展的可操作化指標、成都商品住房市場的發(fā)展狀況、差別化信貸政策在往期的狀況和近期預測中對成都商品住房的成交、供給、存量三個方面的影響。通過對成都市2007年至2011年商品住房市場數(shù)據(jù)和成都商品住房市場狀況進行分析,利用時間序列分析的方法,對成都2012年1月到12月的主要指標進行了預測。通過成都商品住房市場的狀況和趨勢預測,對差別化信貸的政策影響進行分析。 通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn)國家出臺差別化信貸政策的主要目標是有三個,一是推動住房購買行為中堅持基本的“住有所居”目標。二是扼制購房者的投機行為。三是控制商品住房市場的投資過熱。 在對成都商品住房市場發(fā)展狀況的分析中,可以從商品住房市場的成交、供給和存量三方面的指標進行測量。成都商品住宅在近幾年發(fā)展狀況的主要特征是：(1)在2010年實行差別化信貸政策后至2011年第一季度,成交均價、成交的面積、供給面積均呈現(xiàn)了上漲趨勢,存量面積保持了穩(wěn)定的狀態(tài)；在2011年二季度后,成交面積在保持了在低位徘徊,在供給面積方面,從四季度出現(xiàn)了下降。(2)在其他方面上,小戶型住宅的成交面積占總面積的比重在總體趨勢上并沒有呈現(xiàn)明顯增加的趨勢,別墅類型的住宅在成交面積和供給面積上并沒有出現(xiàn)下降,存量面積因為供給面積的增加而出現(xiàn)了大幅增加。 差別化信貸政策對成都商品住房市場往期的狀況和近期預測表現(xiàn)出的影響中,主要表現(xiàn)為：(1)差別化信貸政策對成都商品住宅市場的成交面積產(chǎn)生了較大的影響,說明差別化信貸政策減少購房投機行為。差別化信貸政策使得成交均價在2012年沒有呈現(xiàn)繼續(xù)上漲的趨勢,這有助于抑制住宅市場的投資過熱。但是差別化信貸政策并沒有表現(xiàn)出對成都的商品住宅市場成交的戶型分布的影響,這不利于推動商品住房市場實現(xiàn)“住有所居”的目標,說明還需要國家其他政策的配套,才能達到這一目標。(2)從供給和存量方面來看,差別化信貸政策對成都房地產(chǎn)的影響極其微弱,從這些指標上沒有實現(xiàn)差別化信貸政策抑制投資過熱、推動住有所居等目標 通過這些分析,本文提出了政策建議,主要是：繼續(xù)嚴格實施差別化信貸政策,扼制購房中的投機行為；發(fā)展保障性住房,調(diào)整住房的供給結(jié)構(gòu)；促進小戶型住房的供給,考慮對低收入人群在購房方面予以支持；結(jié)合土地政策、稅收政策等,配合差別化信貸政策,控制房地產(chǎn)投資過熱。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of China's urbanization level and the increase of the floating population, there is a huge demand for housing in the commodity housing market in China. But over-the-price housing prices have made it possible for potential buyers to be able to afford housing. In addition, the situation of the commodity housing market and the development of the macro-economy are closely related, the investment of the commodity housing market is overheated, the unbalanced development of the economy can be caused, and the excessive house price may cause the real estate bubble. The problems in China's real estate have become a major social problem, civil and economic problems. In this context, the State has introduced differential credit policies to address these issues. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the shadow of the differential credit policy to the commodity house in Chengdu In this general objective, the question to be answered in this paper is what the goal of the differentiated credit policy of the state is to measure, measure the operational index of the development of the commodity housing market in Chengdu, and the development of the commodity housing market in Chengdu The status of the differential credit policy and the shadow of three aspects of the transaction, supply and stock of the commercial housing in Chengdu in the current situation and the near-term forecast In response to the analysis of the data of the commercial housing market in Chengdu from 2007 to 2011 and the status of the Chengdu commercial housing market, the main indexes of Chengdu from January to December 2012 were pre-determined by using the method of time series analysis. Measurement. The policy impact on differential credit is divided through the status and trend prediction of the Chengdu commodity housing market. The first one is to promote the basic "to live in a house" Objectives. The second is to choke the investment of homebuyers The third is to control the investment in the commodity housing market In the analysis of the development situation of the commodity housing market in Chengdu, it is possible to refer to the three aspects of the transaction, supply and stock of the commodity housing market The main characteristics of the development of Chengdu Commodity House in recent years are as follows: (1) After the introduction of the differential credit policy in 2010 to the first quarter of 2011, the transaction average price, the volume of the transaction and the supply area show an upward trend, and the stock area remains stable; in 2011 After the second quarter of the year, the deal area remained in the low position, and in terms of supply area, it was from the fourth quarter. (2) In other respects, the proportion of the total area occupied by the small-sized house does not show a significant increase in the overall trend, and the house of the villa type is not in the deal area and the supply area There is a decrease in the stock area due to the increase in the supply area The effect of differential credit policy on the current situation and the recent forecast of the commercial housing market in Chengdu is mainly shown as follows: (1) The differential credit policy has a good deal area of the commercial housing market in Chengdu have a great influence on the differentiation of credit policy A small amount of speculative behavior. The differential credit policy makes the average value of the transaction not present in 2012, which can help to restrain the house. The investment of the market is too hot. But the differential credit policy does not show the impact on the distribution of the family size of the commercial housing market in Chengdu, which is not conducive to the promotion of the "to live in a house" of the commodity housing market, and the description also requires the matching of other national policies (2) In terms of supply and stock, the impact of differential credit policy on the real estate in Chengdu is extremely weak. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the target through these analyses. The policy suggestions are: to continue to strictly implement the differential credit policy, to restrain the speculative behavior in the house purchase, to develop the supportability housing, to adjust the supply structure of the housing, to promote the supply of the small-sized housing, to consider the support of the low-income people in the purchase of the house, and to combine the soil land policy, tax policy and so on, cooperate with the differential credit policy,
【學位授予單位】：四川農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F299.23;F832.4

【引證文獻】

相關(guān)博士學位論文 前3條

1 葛龍;基于GARCH和COPULA的天津房地產(chǎn)市場預測[D];天津大學;2008年

2 杜雪君;房地產(chǎn)稅對房價的影響機理與實證分析[D];浙江大學;2009年

3 王剛;貨幣政策調(diào)控對房地產(chǎn)市場的影響研究[D];西南財經(jīng)大學;2010年

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本文編號：2484483