【摘要】：回首過(guò)去十多年中貨幣政策領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展,最引人注目的成就便是通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制的誕生和流行,以及由此所觸發(fā)的對(duì)這一政策框架的討論及研究。目前,我國(guó)實(shí)行的是以貨幣供應(yīng)量為中介目標(biāo)的貨幣政策框架開(kāi)始遭遇越來(lái)越多的挑戰(zhàn)。如何完善我國(guó)當(dāng)前的貨幣政策框架以應(yīng)對(duì)這些挑戰(zhàn),就成了一個(gè)頗具緊迫感的問(wèn)題。本文便是從分析通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制入手,探求成功貨幣政策框架的理論及實(shí)踐,探討通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制在中國(guó)的適用性以及它對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策框架調(diào)整的啟示。 本文共分6章,第1章是導(dǎo)論部分,介紹選題的背景和研究的意義、國(guó)內(nèi)外的研究狀況、研究的理論基礎(chǔ)和方法。 第2章從理論層面和制度層面對(duì)通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制進(jìn)行深入、細(xì)致的剖析。 第3章對(duì)通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制的國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)進(jìn)行了考察,以試圖找尋出成功貨幣政策的共性。本章討論的范圍并不局限于實(shí)施正式通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制的國(guó)家智利,還包含了被譽(yù)為通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制“先驅(qū)”的德國(guó)和有“隱含的通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制”之稱的美國(guó)。 第4章在介紹了我國(guó)現(xiàn)行貨幣政策框架的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了當(dāng)前我國(guó)貨幣政策框架所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。結(jié)合貨幣目標(biāo)制出現(xiàn)了問(wèn)題,本文隨之探討了匯率目標(biāo)制亦不適用于現(xiàn)如今的中國(guó)。本章的最后一節(jié)結(jié)合通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制實(shí)施的前提條件,對(duì)通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制在中國(guó)的適用性進(jìn)行了分析。最后得出結(jié)論：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)尚處于經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)軌時(shí)期,目前在中國(guó)引入通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制尚不具備條件,中國(guó)應(yīng)有步驟地、逐漸地實(shí)施通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制。 第5章則緊承第4章的內(nèi)容,在論證了通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制是我國(guó)貨幣政策框架選取趨勢(shì)的基礎(chǔ)上,探討了我國(guó)是否有必要提高當(dāng)前通貨膨脹容忍度,另外嘗試著對(duì)我國(guó)的通貨膨脹目標(biāo)區(qū)間做了一個(gè)設(shè)定,并將其作為我國(guó)逐步實(shí)施通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制的第一步。在做這個(gè)嘗試之前,第一節(jié)內(nèi)容首先分析了國(guó)際上通用的通貨膨脹目標(biāo)的設(shè)定依據(jù),即通用的1%-3%的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源。緊接著探討了我國(guó)是否有提高通貨膨脹容忍度的必要,而最適宜于我國(guó)的通貨膨脹目標(biāo)應(yīng)設(shè)定為多少是最佳,并在最后得出一個(gè)：我國(guó)應(yīng)效仿德國(guó),先設(shè)立一個(gè)暫時(shí)性的過(guò)渡目標(biāo)為3%～5%,而待至我國(guó)真正確立通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制后,再將1%～3%作為一個(gè)中長(zhǎng)期的通貨膨脹目標(biāo)不動(dòng)搖。這章內(nèi)容也是本文的創(chuàng)新所在。 第6章在前面分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策框架的調(diào)整提出了一攬子政策建議。
[Abstract]:Looking back on the development of monetary policy in the past decade or so, the most remarkable achievement is the birth and popularity of inflation targeting system, as well as the discussion and research on this policy framework triggered by it. At present, the monetary policy framework with the intermediate target of money supply is confronted with more and more challenges. How to improve China's current monetary policy framework to meet these challenges, has become a very urgent issue. This paper starts with the analysis of inflation targeting system, explores the theory and practice of successful monetary policy framework, discusses the applicability of inflation targeting system in China and its enlightenment to the adjustment of monetary policy framework in China. This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter is the introduction, introduces the background of the topic and the significance of the research, the domestic and foreign research status, the theoretical basis and methods of the research. The second chapter makes an in-depth and detailed analysis of inflation targeting system from the theoretical level and the institutional level. Chapter 3 investigates the international experience of inflation targeting in order to find out the commonality of successful monetary policy. The scope of this chapter is not limited to Chile, which implements formal inflation targeting, but also includes Germany, known as the "pioneer" of inflation targeting, and the United States, known as "implicit inflation targeting". Chapter 4, on the basis of introducing the current monetary policy framework of our country, analyzes the challenges faced by the current monetary policy framework of our country. Combined with the problems of currency targeting, this paper also discusses that exchange rate targeting is not applicable to today's China. In the last section of this chapter, the applicability of inflation targeting in China is analyzed. Finally, it is concluded that China's economy is still in the period of economic transition, at present, the introduction of inflation targeting system in China does not have the conditions, China should gradually implement inflation targeting system step by step. Chapter 5 follows the contents of Chapter 4, and on the basis of proving that inflation targeting is the trend of choosing the monetary policy framework of our country, it discusses whether it is necessary to improve the current inflation tolerance in our country. In addition, an attempt is made to set the inflation target interval of our country, which is regarded as the first step of the gradual implementation of inflation targeting system in our country. Before doing so, the first section analyzes the basis for setting inflation targets, or 1% and 3% of the global inflation target. Then it discusses whether it is necessary for our country to improve the tolerance of inflation, and how much the inflation target which is most suitable for our country should be set to be the best, and finally draws a conclusion: our country should emulate Germany. First set a temporary transition target of 3% 鈮，

本文編號(hào)：2472460