【摘要】：提高上市公司信息披露水平和質(zhì)量不僅關(guān)乎著證券市場有效性，同時，也對提高投資者保護水平以及改善公司治理具有重要作用。目前，信息披露方面的研究主要集中在歷史信息，對預(yù)測信息的研究較少。上市公司管理層發(fā)布的盈利預(yù)測信息可以及時向投資者傳遞公司經(jīng)營成果方面的信息，但是作為一種預(yù)測性信息，，它有其固有的不確定性和主觀性，并且它與投資者的投資決策有較高的相關(guān)度，投資者對待這種預(yù)測性信息的風險也有不同的市場反應(yīng)。上市公司管理層預(yù)測信息以及準確性一直都是投資者非常關(guān)注的問題，一旦上市公司披露的管理層預(yù)測信息存在失真現(xiàn)象，那么投資者在市場中對此類信息就會缺乏“安全感”。當前，作為新興市場特征非常明顯的我國證券市場，在許多方面還不成熟，各項制度建設(shè)任重道遠，證監(jiān)會對上市公司的監(jiān)督與管理還有很多方面需要加強，相關(guān)的政策法規(guī)也需要完善。另外，由于我國證券市場里大部分是散戶，他們很難對上市公司做出準確、科學的評估，不真實的信息不僅會誤導投資者，而且對證券市場也會產(chǎn)生負面的影響。 上市公司管理層盈利預(yù)測信息的準確性不同，所引起的投資者市場反應(yīng)也是不盡相同的。預(yù)測信息的準確性與隨后的市場反應(yīng)（股價反應(yīng)）之間存在著一定的關(guān)系，這種關(guān)系恰恰是通過影響投資者的投資決策而影響到公司股價的變化，并由此影響了上市公司股價后續(xù)的波動方向和波動幅度。 本論文立足于中國上市公司發(fā)展的實際，運用信息不對稱假設(shè)、博弈論、市場效率等分析理論，采用規(guī)范和實證的研究方法，對上市公司管理層盈利預(yù)測信息行為、準確性及市場反應(yīng)進行了比較全面、系統(tǒng)和深入的研究，不僅提出了上市公司管理層預(yù)測信息準確性問題，并且按照準確性程度進行分類，利用事件研究法把“準確類”和“非準確類”兩種不同類型的管理層預(yù)測的市場反應(yīng)（股價反應(yīng)）和投資者預(yù)期進行了研究，即把預(yù)測信息準確性和相關(guān)性結(jié)合起來進行考察，同時也從一個側(cè)面反映出我國上市公司治理結(jié)構(gòu)情況，同時該選題的研究也可以對我國目前上市公司管理層預(yù)測信息披露制度的發(fā)展和改進起到非常重要的借鑒作用。對投資者客觀把握上市公司業(yè)績預(yù)測信息具有重要參考意義。
[Abstract]:Improving the level and quality of information disclosure of listed companies is not only related to the effectiveness of the securities market, but also plays an important role in improving the level of investor protection and corporate governance. At present, the research on information disclosure is mainly focused on historical information, but less on forecast information. The profit forecast information issued by the management of the listed company can transmit the information about the company's operating results to the investors in time, but as a kind of predictive information, it has its inherent uncertainty and subjectivity. And it has a high degree of relevance with investors' investment decisions, and investors have different market responses to the risk of this predictive information. The management forecast information and accuracy of listed companies has always been an issue of great concern to investors. Once the management forecast information disclosed by listed companies is distorted, Then investors in the market for such information will lack of "sense of security". At present, China's securities market, which has very obvious characteristics in emerging markets, is still immature in many respects, and the construction of various systems has a long way to go, and the supervision and management of listed companies by the CSRC still need to be strengthened in many aspects. Relevant policies and regulations also need to be improved. In addition, because most of the stock market in our country are retail investors, it is very difficult for them to make accurate and scientific evaluation of listed companies. Untrue information will not only mislead investors, but also have a negative impact on the securities market. The accuracy of management profit forecast information of listed companies is different, and the investor market reaction is also different. There is a certain relationship between the accuracy of the forecast information and the subsequent market reaction (stock price response), which affects precisely the changes in the stock price of a company by influencing investors' investment decisions. And thus affected the stock price of listed companies follow-up fluctuation direction and fluctuation range. Based on the reality of the development of listed companies in China, this paper makes use of the information asymmetry hypothesis, game theory, market efficiency and other analytical theories, and adopts normative and empirical research methods to predict the information behavior of management profitability of listed companies. The accuracy and market response are studied in a comprehensive, systematic and in-depth way, which not only raises the problem of the accuracy of the management forecast information of listed companies, but also classifies them according to the degree of accuracy. Using the event research method, the market response (stock price response) and investor expectation of two different types of management prediction, "accurate class" and "inaccurate class", are studied, that is to say, the accuracy and correlation of forecast information are examined by combining the accuracy and correlation of forecast information. At the same time, it also reflects the governance structure of listed companies in China. At the same time, the research on this topic can also play a very important role in the development and improvement of the management forecast information disclosure system of listed companies in China. It is of great significance for investors to grasp the performance forecast information of listed companies objectively.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F224;F832.51

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