【摘要】：2007年3月，第一家村鎮(zhèn)銀行在四川成立。緊接著，村鎮(zhèn)銀行在全國各地紛紛成立。從2007年到現(xiàn)在，村鎮(zhèn)銀行對于促進農村經濟發(fā)展、改善城鄉(xiāng)二元經濟結構、完善農村金融服務體系等方面發(fā)揮了重要作用。但是，村鎮(zhèn)銀行屬于新型農村金融機構，成立的時間還不長，正處于起步發(fā)展階段，抗風險能力還很弱，，一旦出現(xiàn)風險，將會給自身的經營帶來威脅，甚至面臨破產。村鎮(zhèn)銀行如果經營不善，不僅與最初成立時服務三農的目標背道而馳，而且會增加農村金融體系的負擔，對農村經濟的繁榮與發(fā)展造成負面影響。因此，科學地認識村鎮(zhèn)銀行的風險，合理地對其進行評估，并加以有效地防范和控制，能夠大大減少村鎮(zhèn)銀行風險發(fā)生的概率，進而降低風險發(fā)生給村鎮(zhèn)銀行帶來的損失，促進村鎮(zhèn)銀行更快、更好地發(fā)展。 本文共分為五個部分，其中第二、三、四章是本文研究的重點。第一章介紹了研究的背景、目的及意義，并對國內外學者的研究現(xiàn)狀進行綜述，為下文的研究做鋪墊。第二章在第一章的基礎上，對村鎮(zhèn)銀行及其風險的含義進行了界定，并分別對村鎮(zhèn)銀行和村鎮(zhèn)銀行風險的特點進行比較深入的分析；結合大型商業(yè)銀行風險的類型和村鎮(zhèn)銀行自身的特殊性，提出村鎮(zhèn)銀行在實際運營中存在的七種類型的風險，并且詳細分析了每種風險產生的根源及其相互聯(lián)系。第三章根據上文提出的七種類型的風險構建村鎮(zhèn)銀行風險評估指標體系，該指標體系共包括8個二級指標和29個三級指標，然后闡述村鎮(zhèn)銀行風險評估的理論基礎，即層次分析法和模糊綜合評價法的理論部分。第四章是村鎮(zhèn)銀行風險的案例分析部分，以P市X村鎮(zhèn)銀行為例，運用第三章提出的模型對其運營風險的大小進行評估，首先運用層次分析法并計算出每一級指標的權重；其次，運用模糊綜合評價法進行風險評估，結果表明，評估結果與X村鎮(zhèn)銀行的實際情況基本一致；最后針對該村鎮(zhèn)銀行的現(xiàn)實情況提出具體風險防范策略。第五章是文章的結尾部分，這部分對全文的研究進行總結，指出本研究的局限性和需要改進的方面，并對該領域的研究進行展望。
[Abstract]:In March 2007, the first village bank was established in Sichuan. Then, village and town banks in various parts of the country have been established. From 2007 to now, village and town banks have played an important role in promoting the development of rural economy, improving the dual economic structure of urban and rural areas, and perfecting the rural financial service system. However, the village and town banks belong to the new type of rural financial institutions, the establishment of which is not a long time, is in the initial stage of development, the ability to resist risks is still very weak, once there is a risk, will bring a threat to their own operations, and even face bankruptcy. If the village bank does not operate well, it not only runs counter to the goal of serving agriculture, rural areas and farmers at the beginning, but also increases the burden of the rural financial system and has a negative impact on the prosperity and development of the rural economy. Therefore, a scientific understanding of the risk of village and town banks, reasonable evaluation of them, and effective prevention and control, can greatly reduce the probability of village and town banks risk occurrence, and then reduce the risk to the village bank losses, Promote the village bank faster, better development. This paper is divided into five parts, of which the second, third and fourth chapters are the focus of this paper. The first chapter introduces the background, purpose and significance of the research, and summarizes the research status of scholars at home and abroad, which lays the groundwork for the following research. The second chapter, on the basis of the first chapter, defines the meaning of village bank and its risk, and analyzes the characteristics of village bank and village bank risk respectively. Combined with the risk types of large commercial banks and the particularity of village banks, this paper puts forward seven types of risks existing in the actual operation of village and town banks, and analyzes in detail the root causes of each kind of risks and their interconnections. The third chapter constructs the risk assessment index system of village and town bank according to the seven types of risk mentioned above. The index system includes 8 second-level indexes and 29 three-level indexes, and then expounds the theoretical basis of the risk assessment of village and town banks. That is, analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the theoretical part. The fourth chapter is the case analysis part of the village bank risk, taking the P city X village bank as an example, using the model put forward in the third chapter to evaluate the operation risk, first, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate the weight of each level index; Secondly, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk. The result shows that the evaluation result is basically consistent with the actual situation of the X village bank. Finally, the concrete risk prevention strategy is put forward according to the actual situation of the village bank. The fifth chapter is the end of the article, this part summarizes the full text of the study, points out the limitations of this study and the aspects that need to be improved, and looks forward to the research in this field.
【學位授予單位】：大連工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.35

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