【摘要】：投資、消費、凈出口被稱為拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的三駕馬車。投資則是啟動經(jīng)濟(jì)的最快引擎，是宏觀調(diào)控政策的重要工具。在我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中，投資一直是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的最主要動力。金融危機(jī)以后，政府投資成為保增長的主導(dǎo)力量，投資增長形成了由政府和國有經(jīng)濟(jì)帶動的格局。但是，政府投資作為增長動力不具有可持續(xù)性。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長不可能完全依靠外力保持，同時，政府財政赤字也難以承受長期投資增長的資金需求，投資動力必須向私人投資轉(zhuǎn)換。只有私人投資信心得到有效恢復(fù)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長才能真正獲得內(nèi)生的、可持續(xù)的動力。如何正確處理公共投資和私人投資關(guān)系、鼓勵和促進(jìn)私人投資發(fā)展，進(jìn)而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是值得深入研究的一個問題。 本文首先對國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了梳理，并從公共投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、擠出和擠入效應(yīng)以及私人投資的決定因素三個視角對相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了評介。進(jìn)而對我國宏觀和分省公共投資和私人投資的特征事實進(jìn)行了總結(jié)，重點從總量、結(jié)構(gòu)和存在的問題等方面進(jìn)行分析，并對全國公共投資內(nèi)部基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資、科教文衛(wèi)投資和公共管理投資對私人投資的影響進(jìn)行分析，初步形成了對中國宏觀經(jīng)公共投資和私人投資關(guān)系的一個基本判斷。 關(guān)于地方公共投資與私人投資之間的相互關(guān)系，本文采用分省面板數(shù)據(jù)，，采用格蘭杰檢驗和協(xié)整以及VAR脈沖響應(yīng)分析等靜態(tài)和動態(tài)相結(jié)合的方式，不僅研究了公共投資對私人投資是“競爭”還是“互補(bǔ)”，更深入分析了公共投資內(nèi)部基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資、科教文衛(wèi)投資和公共管理投資對私人投資的影響。通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，因地區(qū)資源稟賦、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、政策性因素等方面的差異，公共投資內(nèi)部構(gòu)成對私人投資的影響不能一概而論，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資和科教文衛(wèi)投資對私人投資的影響都表現(xiàn)為正向，但在部分省市表現(xiàn)出負(fù)面影響；而公共管理投資對私人投資的影響地區(qū)間差異較大。公共投資與私人投資的關(guān)系在省市間的差異性表現(xiàn)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和所有制類型有關(guān)。在國有經(jīng)濟(jì)比重較高的地區(qū)，公共投資與私人投資是競爭關(guān)系；而在西部不發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)公共投資與私人投資表現(xiàn)為互補(bǔ)關(guān)系。 考慮到我國處在從財政主導(dǎo)型向銀行主導(dǎo)型體制轉(zhuǎn)變的過程中，金融發(fā)展和財政收入是影響公共投資和私人投資發(fā)展及其相互關(guān)系的重要因素。本文采用分省面板數(shù)據(jù)，運用理論分析和實證檢驗相結(jié)合的方法，將金融發(fā)展、財政收入、財政分權(quán)等變量納入模型進(jìn)行研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)金融發(fā)展和財政分權(quán)對公共投資和私人投資及其相互關(guān)系的影響省際間存在結(jié)構(gòu)性差異。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，金融發(fā)展水平與私人投資水平密切相關(guān)，金融發(fā)展水平高的地區(qū)，金融發(fā)展能夠有效帶動私人投資增長，而金融發(fā)展水平滯后的地區(qū)，私人投資很難從金融中介獲得支持實現(xiàn)快速發(fā)展。地方政府公共投資受到財政收入的約束，財政分權(quán)程度不同的地方將會產(chǎn)生不同力度的公共投資。財政收入、財政分權(quán)對基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和科教文衛(wèi)投資有較大的促進(jìn)作用，且財政收入和財政分權(quán)對基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的促進(jìn)作用更大一些。在財政投入有限的情況下，地方政府更傾向于加大基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資力度，而忽視了短期內(nèi)對地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長促進(jìn)效果不明顯的科教文衛(wèi)投資。本文還對各省市公共投資的最優(yōu)比重進(jìn)行了預(yù)測。 最后基于以上實證檢驗結(jié)果的比較分析，在借鑒發(fā)達(dá)國家先進(jìn)經(jīng)驗的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了改善地方政府公共投資管理和促進(jìn)民間投資的相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:Investment, consumption, and net exports are referred to as a troika of economic growth. Investment is the fastest engine to start the economy, and is an important tool of macro-control policy. In the economic development of our country, the investment has been the main power of economic growth. After the financial crisis, the government's investment has become the leading force of the growth, and the investment growth has formed a pattern driven by the government and the state-owned economy. However, government investment is not sustainable as a driving force. Economic growth is unlikely to rely entirely on external forces and, at the same time, the government's fiscal deficit is hard to bear the capital demand for long-term investment growth, and the investment power must be converted to private investment. Only private investment confidence is effectively restored, and economic growth can truly achieve an endogenous, sustainable power. How to deal with the relationship between public investment and private investment, to encourage and promote the development of private investment, and to promote the economic growth is a problem that is worth further research. This paper reviews the domestic and foreign literature, and reviews the relevant literature from three perspectives: public investment and economic growth, extrusion and squeezing effect and the determinants of private investment. In addition, the paper summarizes the characteristics of public investment and private investment in the macro-and sub-province of China. The emphasis is on the analysis of the total quantity, structure and the existing problems and the investment in the national public investment. The analysis of the influence of investment and public administration on the private investment has formed a basic judgment on the relationship between the public investment and the private investment in China. On the basis of the relationship between local public investment and private investment, this paper adopts the method of combining the static and dynamic combination of the data of the sub-province panel, the Granger test and the association and the VAR impulse response analysis, which not only studies whether the public investment is the 鈥渃ompetition鈥

本文編號：2390435