發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-07 19:18

【摘要】：在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)日益密切參與到國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)中去，對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)交往不斷加深，國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值高速增長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下，匯率日益成為一個(gè)重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量，成為了國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)交往的紐帶，幾乎所有的國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)都要與匯率產(chǎn)生聯(lián)系。一個(gè)開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與匯率制度是分不開(kāi)的。自從2005年我國(guó)實(shí)行了以市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)的有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度之后，人民幣匯率問(wèn)題日益成為國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)中的一個(gè)重要課題。如何有效估計(jì)人民幣的均衡匯率，測(cè)算人民幣匯率的失調(diào)程度，合理預(yù)估人民幣幣值的走勢(shì)，對(duì)于我國(guó)的對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)交往乃至國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展都有著重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先回顧了人民幣匯率制度的改革歷程，以歷史的發(fā)展的眼光看待人民幣匯率問(wèn)題，緊接著對(duì)西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的經(jīng)典匯率決定理論進(jìn)行了綜述，以期確定影響一國(guó)匯率的基本經(jīng)濟(jì)因素有哪些。在此基礎(chǔ)之上，筆者選擇了行為均衡匯率理論（BEER）對(duì)人民幣的均衡匯率進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。在具體的變量選擇過(guò)程中，筆者結(jié)合對(duì)經(jīng)典匯率理論的分析，確定了經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放度、勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率、貿(mào)易條件、貨幣供給量、政府支出和國(guó)內(nèi)外利率差六個(gè)基本經(jīng)濟(jì)變量作為人民幣均衡匯率的解釋變量，通過(guò)實(shí)證分析確定了人民幣均衡匯率方程，并測(cè)算了人民幣匯率的失調(diào)程度，預(yù)測(cè)了人民幣未來(lái)的走勢(shì)。 本文在理論分析和實(shí)證分析的基礎(chǔ)上得出了以下結(jié)論：（1）經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放度、勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率、貿(mào)易條件、貨幣供給量、政府支出和國(guó)內(nèi)外利率差等對(duì)人民幣均衡匯率確實(shí)有影響，但是影響方向及程度不同。（2）長(zhǎng)期的人民幣匯率走勢(shì)情況，匯率失調(diào)是常態(tài)，但是失調(diào)程度不大。同時(shí)在未來(lái)的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，人民幣匯率將保持失調(diào)的狀態(tài)，穩(wěn)步升值。 在文章的最后，筆者對(duì)人民幣匯率制度改革提出了幾點(diǎn)建議：（1）增強(qiáng)人民幣匯率的彈性。（2）深化發(fā)展外匯市場(chǎng)，提高市場(chǎng)活躍度。（3）緩解人民幣升值和通貨膨脹并行的壓力。
[Abstract]:In the context of China's increasingly close participation in international economic activities, the deepening of foreign economic contacts and the rapid growth of its gross national product, the exchange rate has increasingly become an important economic variable. It has become the link of international economic communication, almost all international economic activities have to be linked with exchange rate. The economic development of an open economy is inseparable from the exchange rate regime. Since China implemented a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand in 2005, with reference to a basket of currencies, the issue of RMB exchange rate has increasingly become an important issue in the international economy. How to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB effectively, calculate the misadjustment degree of RMB exchange rate, and estimate the trend of RMB currency value reasonably have important theoretical and practical significance for the healthy development of our country's foreign economic exchanges and even the national economy. This paper reviews the course of the reform of RMB exchange rate system, views the issue of RMB exchange rate from the perspective of historical development, and then summarizes the classical theory of exchange rate determination in western economics. With a view to determining the basic economic factors that affect a country's exchange rate. On this basis, the author chooses the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate theory (BEER) to carry on the empirical analysis to the RMB equilibrium exchange rate. In the process of choosing specific variables, the author analyzes the classical exchange rate theory and determines the economic openness, labor productivity, terms of trade, money supply. Six basic economic variables of government expenditure and interest rate difference at home and abroad are taken as the explanatory variables of RMB equilibrium exchange rate. The equilibrium exchange rate equation of RMB is determined by empirical analysis, and the misadjustment degree of RMB exchange rate is calculated. Forecast the future trend of RMB. On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions: (1) Economic openness, labor productivity, terms of trade, money supply, government expenditure and interest rate differentials at home and abroad do have an impact on the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB. But the influence direction and the degree are different. (2) the long-term RMB exchange rate trend situation, the exchange rate misadjustment is the normal, but the misadjustment degree is not big. At the same time in the future, the RMB exchange rate will remain misaligned, steady appreciation. At the end of the paper, the author puts forward some suggestions on the reform of RMB exchange rate system: (1) strengthening the flexibility of RMB exchange rate; (2) deepening the development of foreign exchange market and increasing market activity; (3) relieving the pressure of RMB appreciation and inflation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：國(guó)際關(guān)系學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6

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