【摘要】：本文以信貸規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)為切入點(diǎn)，主要研究我國信貸與通貨膨脹的關(guān)系。本文從四個(gè)角度對(duì)信貸進(jìn)行分析：信貸規(guī)模、信貸行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、信貸期限結(jié)構(gòu)和信貸質(zhì)量結(jié)構(gòu)，并分別從這四個(gè)方面論述信貸與通貨膨脹的關(guān)系。 首先，本文分別對(duì)信貸規(guī)模與通貨膨脹、信貸各結(jié)構(gòu)與通貨膨脹的理論關(guān)系進(jìn)行概述，接著將信貸與通貨膨脹的理論關(guān)系分解為信貸—貨幣供應(yīng)量—通貨膨脹這兩個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)，并分別用貨幣乘數(shù)理論、后凱恩斯學(xué)派內(nèi)生貨幣假說、古典貨幣數(shù)量論、一般均衡理論、貨幣主義學(xué)派的現(xiàn)代貨幣數(shù)量論等理論對(duì)信貸與通貨膨脹的相互作用機(jī)制進(jìn)行了理論分析，這些理論都認(rèn)為信貸和通貨膨脹相互作用、相互影響。 本文接著對(duì)我國信貸規(guī)模、信貸結(jié)構(gòu)、通貨膨脹的情況進(jìn)行定量和定性分析，包括我國信貸規(guī)模現(xiàn)狀、特點(diǎn)、信貸資金來源、信貸規(guī)模成因；我國信貸行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、期限結(jié)構(gòu)、資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀及成因；我國通貨膨脹歷史狀況、現(xiàn)階段通貨膨脹特征、現(xiàn)階段通貨膨脹成因等。文章接著從理論角度分析了我國信貸規(guī)模、結(jié)構(gòu)與通貨膨脹的相互作用機(jī)制。 本文用向量自回歸模型對(duì)信貸規(guī)模、結(jié)構(gòu)與通貨膨脹的關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析。首先分析我國信貸規(guī)模與通貨膨脹的經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量關(guān)系，得出信貸規(guī)模的變動(dòng)引起通貨膨脹同向變動(dòng)、通貨膨脹變動(dòng)引起信貸規(guī)模反向變動(dòng)的實(shí)證結(jié)果；其次分析我國信貸行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、期限結(jié)構(gòu)、質(zhì)量結(jié)構(gòu)與通貨膨脹的經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量關(guān)系，得出信貸行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、期限結(jié)構(gòu)單向作用于通貨膨脹水平，信貸質(zhì)量結(jié)構(gòu)與通貨膨脹水平互為因果的實(shí)證結(jié)果，，并給出了相應(yīng)實(shí)證結(jié)果的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義。 針對(duì)前文的理論分析，我國信貸與通貨膨脹水平定性、定量分析和實(shí)證結(jié)果，本文最后部分提出了合理控制信貸規(guī)模與平衡信貸結(jié)構(gòu)，發(fā)展多樣融資方式與降低銀行非理性放貸行為，積極發(fā)揮存貸利率的中介作用等對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:Based on the scale and structure of credit, this paper mainly studies the relationship between credit and inflation in China. This paper analyzes the credit from four angles: the scale of credit, the structure of credit industry, the structure of credit term and the structure of credit quality, and discusses the relationship between credit and inflation from these four aspects. First of all, this paper summarizes the theoretical relationship between credit scale and inflation, the relationship between credit structure and inflation, and then divides the theoretical relationship between credit and inflation into two links: credit, money supply and inflation. And respectively using monetary multiplier theory, post-Keynesian endogenous monetary hypothesis, classical monetary quantity theory, general equilibrium theory, The modern monetary quantity theory of monetarist school makes a theoretical analysis of the interaction mechanism between credit and inflation. These theories all hold that credit and inflation interact and affect each other. This paper then carries on the quantitative and qualitative analysis to our country credit scale, the credit structure, the inflation situation, including our country credit scale present situation, the characteristic, the credit fund source, the credit scale origin, the credit profession structure, the term structure, The present situation and causes of asset quality structure, the historical situation of inflation in China, the characteristics of inflation at the present stage, the causes of inflation at present and so on. Then the paper analyzes the interaction mechanism of credit scale, structure and inflation from the theoretical point of view. This paper uses vector autoregressive model to analyze the relationship between credit scale, structure and inflation. Firstly, the paper analyzes the econometric relationship between credit scale and inflation, and concludes that the change of credit scale causes inflation to change in the same direction and inflation to cause reverse change of credit scale. Secondly, the paper analyzes the econometric relationship between credit industry structure, term structure, quality structure and inflation, and draws the conclusion that the structure of credit industry and term structure act on inflation level unidirectionally. The empirical results of the causality between the credit quality structure and the inflation level are given, and the economic significance of the corresponding empirical results is given. In view of the above theoretical analysis, qualitative, quantitative and empirical results of credit and inflation in China, the last part of this paper puts forward a reasonable control of credit scale and balance of credit structure. To develop various financing methods and reduce the irrational lending behavior of banks, and play an active role in the intermediary role of deposit and loan interest rates and other countermeasures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.4;F822.5

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