人民幣匯率制度選擇對經(jīng)濟(jì)影響研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-04 22:35
【摘要】：近年來，隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長，為我國累積了豐厚的外匯儲備，但同時也導(dǎo)致人民幣升值壓力不斷加大，表明缺乏彈性的匯率制度已不適合我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)發(fā)展。我國人民幣匯率制度先后于1994年、2005年7月21日兩次大的改革后，開始實行以市場供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣、有管理的浮動匯率制度，標(biāo)志著人民幣匯率制度走上了更加市場化、更加靈活的軌道。匯率制度主要通過匯率行為影響貿(mào)易和投資，進(jìn)而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長趨勢和方式。在人民幣升值壓力持續(xù)加大以及資本項目可自由兌換進(jìn)程加快的背景下，如何選擇人民幣匯率制度，是實施穩(wěn)定的釘住匯率制，，還是實施更加靈活的浮動匯率制，以及匯率制度對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響，對加快中國經(jīng)濟(jì)深度融入全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)程，具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 論文以匯率制度理論為指導(dǎo)，以人民幣匯率制度為研究對象，在借鑒國內(nèi)外研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，闡述了各種匯率制度的理論分歧以及對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響。分析了匯率制度的歷史變遷、分類和分布狀況。以人民幣匯率制度演變?yōu)榍腥朦c，構(gòu)建了人民幣匯率制度選擇依據(jù)、原則、路徑、目標(biāo)和模式。分析了人民幣匯率制度對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、貿(mào)易、資本、貨幣政策等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的影響。從政策層面提出了完成人民幣匯率制度改革的政策建議。 論文研究結(jié)論：一是在經(jīng)濟(jì)金融飛速發(fā)展的今天，我國目前的匯率制度已不能適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要。當(dāng)前國際社會對人民幣施加的升值壓力，從表象看是匯率問題，但實際上是匯率制度深層次問題的放映。二是人民幣匯率制度選擇問題是我國的主權(quán)，應(yīng)堅定不移地堅持自主性的原則。同時，要在權(quán)衡利弊、有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)上，加快匯制改革步伐。三是人民幣匯率制度改革的近期目標(biāo)是實行目標(biāo)區(qū)匯率制度，中期目標(biāo)是實行管理浮動匯率制度，采取的模式應(yīng)該是貨幣政策獨(dú)立+資本完全流動+浮動匯率制，這符合中國經(jīng)濟(jì)市場化改革的要求。四是匯率行為是匯率制度的表現(xiàn)形式，匯率問題是表象，反映的是匯率制度深層次的問題，因此要解決國際社會對匯率的“熱心”關(guān)注，關(guān)鍵是要在堅持自主性、漸進(jìn)性的基礎(chǔ)上，徹底改革人民幣匯率制度制度。五是人民幣匯率制度對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有一定的影響作用，但存在滯后效應(yīng)。匯率制度要同其他經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控工具及相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策配套使用，才能更有效地促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。六是人民幣匯率制度改革是一項復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)工程，需要政府主導(dǎo)、金融機(jī)構(gòu)配合、企業(yè)和個人順利適應(yīng)的一項綜合性改革。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid growth of China's economy, the accumulation of rich foreign exchange reserves for China, but also led to increasing pressure on the appreciation of the RMB, indicating that the inelastic exchange rate system is no longer suitable for the sustainable development of China's economy. After two major reforms in 1994 and July 21, 2005, China's RMB exchange rate system began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and referring to a basket of currencies. Marked the RMB exchange rate regime on a more market-oriented, more flexible track. Exchange rate system mainly affects trade and investment through exchange rate behavior, and then economic growth trend and mode. Under the background of the increasing pressure of RMB appreciation and the acceleration of the process of capital account convertibility, how to choose the RMB exchange rate system is to implement a stable pegged exchange rate system or a more flexible floating exchange rate system. The influence of exchange rate system on China's economic growth is of great theoretical and practical significance in speeding up the process of China's deep integration into the global economy. Guided by the theory of exchange rate regime and taking RMB exchange rate regime as the research object, this paper expounds the theoretical differences of various exchange rate regimes and their effects on economic growth on the basis of reference of domestic and foreign research results. This paper analyzes the historical changes, classification and distribution of exchange rate system. Based on the evolution of RMB exchange rate system, this paper constructs the basis, principle, path, target and mode of RMB exchange rate system selection. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate regime on economic growth, trade, capital, monetary policy and other macroeconomic indicators. From the policy level, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to complete the reform of RMB exchange rate system. The main conclusions are as follows: first, with the rapid development of economy and finance, the current exchange rate system in China can not meet the needs of economic development. The current pressure exerted by the international community on the appreciation of the RMB is seen as a matter of exchange rate, but it is in fact a projection of the deep-seated issue of the exchange rate regime. Second, the choice of RMB exchange rate system is the sovereignty of our country, and we should firmly adhere to the principle of autonomy. At the same time, we should speed up the pace of exchange rate system reform on the basis of weighing advantages and disadvantages and beneficial to economic development. Third, the short-term goal of the reform of the RMB exchange rate system is to implement the target zone exchange rate system, and the medium-term goal is to implement the management floating exchange rate system. The model adopted should be the completely floating exchange rate system of independent capital of monetary policy. This is in line with the requirements of market-oriented reform of China's economy. Fourth, exchange rate behavior is the manifestation of the exchange rate system, and the exchange rate problem is a superficial one, reflecting the deep-seated problem of the exchange rate regime. Therefore, to solve the international community's "enthusiastic" concern about the exchange rate, the key is to insist on its autonomy. On the basis of gradual reform of RMB exchange rate system. Fifth, RMB exchange rate system has certain influence on economic growth, but it has lag effect. The exchange rate system should be used in conjunction with other economic control tools and related economic policies in order to promote economic growth more effectively. Sixthly, the reform of RMB exchange rate system is a complex systematic project, which needs government leading, financial institutions to cooperate, enterprises and individuals to adapt to a comprehensive reform.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.61
本文編號：2252135
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid growth of China's economy, the accumulation of rich foreign exchange reserves for China, but also led to increasing pressure on the appreciation of the RMB, indicating that the inelastic exchange rate system is no longer suitable for the sustainable development of China's economy. After two major reforms in 1994 and July 21, 2005, China's RMB exchange rate system began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and referring to a basket of currencies. Marked the RMB exchange rate regime on a more market-oriented, more flexible track. Exchange rate system mainly affects trade and investment through exchange rate behavior, and then economic growth trend and mode. Under the background of the increasing pressure of RMB appreciation and the acceleration of the process of capital account convertibility, how to choose the RMB exchange rate system is to implement a stable pegged exchange rate system or a more flexible floating exchange rate system. The influence of exchange rate system on China's economic growth is of great theoretical and practical significance in speeding up the process of China's deep integration into the global economy. Guided by the theory of exchange rate regime and taking RMB exchange rate regime as the research object, this paper expounds the theoretical differences of various exchange rate regimes and their effects on economic growth on the basis of reference of domestic and foreign research results. This paper analyzes the historical changes, classification and distribution of exchange rate system. Based on the evolution of RMB exchange rate system, this paper constructs the basis, principle, path, target and mode of RMB exchange rate system selection. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate regime on economic growth, trade, capital, monetary policy and other macroeconomic indicators. From the policy level, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to complete the reform of RMB exchange rate system. The main conclusions are as follows: first, with the rapid development of economy and finance, the current exchange rate system in China can not meet the needs of economic development. The current pressure exerted by the international community on the appreciation of the RMB is seen as a matter of exchange rate, but it is in fact a projection of the deep-seated issue of the exchange rate regime. Second, the choice of RMB exchange rate system is the sovereignty of our country, and we should firmly adhere to the principle of autonomy. At the same time, we should speed up the pace of exchange rate system reform on the basis of weighing advantages and disadvantages and beneficial to economic development. Third, the short-term goal of the reform of the RMB exchange rate system is to implement the target zone exchange rate system, and the medium-term goal is to implement the management floating exchange rate system. The model adopted should be the completely floating exchange rate system of independent capital of monetary policy. This is in line with the requirements of market-oriented reform of China's economy. Fourth, exchange rate behavior is the manifestation of the exchange rate system, and the exchange rate problem is a superficial one, reflecting the deep-seated problem of the exchange rate regime. Therefore, to solve the international community's "enthusiastic" concern about the exchange rate, the key is to insist on its autonomy. On the basis of gradual reform of RMB exchange rate system. Fifth, RMB exchange rate system has certain influence on economic growth, but it has lag effect. The exchange rate system should be used in conjunction with other economic control tools and related economic policies in order to promote economic growth more effectively. Sixthly, the reform of RMB exchange rate system is a complex systematic project, which needs government leading, financial institutions to cooperate, enterprises and individuals to adapt to a comprehensive reform.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.61
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