人民幣匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)中美貿(mào)易差額的影響
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-06 12:47
【摘要】：中美兩國自1979年1月1日建交以來,在政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化等多個(gè)領(lǐng)域廣泛合作,取得了多項(xiàng)成果,尤其是雙邊經(jīng)貿(mào)的發(fā)展,在34年的交往中碩果累累。改革開放后,美國儼然已成為中國最重要的貿(mào)易伙伴,而中國也于2007年起成為美國最大的進(jìn)口來源國。據(jù)中國海關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì),2012年1月至9月,中美商品貿(mào)易總額達(dá)3554.2億美元,較2011年同期增長294.8億美元,同比高出9個(gè)百分點(diǎn),其中對(duì)美出口商品總額達(dá)2581.6億美元,自美國進(jìn)口商品總額972.6億美元,實(shí)現(xiàn)凈出口額高達(dá)1609億美元。簡而言之,中美兩國的經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系已由互惠互利的合作關(guān)系上升為唇齒相依的戰(zhàn)略合作者關(guān)系。 然而兩國的貿(mào)易往來近幾年來摩擦不斷,在美方看來,這很大程度上歸咎于中國的幣值問題。從2001年開始,人民幣幣值是否被低估引起了國際社會(huì)及學(xué)術(shù)界的廣泛關(guān)注與討論,并且由最初單純的經(jīng)濟(jì)問題上升至政治問題,在這場持久戰(zhàn)中,美國無疑是主要的輿論制造者,不斷推動(dòng)著人民幣的升值。2005年7月21日,中國人民銀行宣布即日起實(shí)施“以市場供求為基礎(chǔ),參考一攬子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié),有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度”,這無疑將我國的匯率制度改革進(jìn)程推向一個(gè)全新的階段。一個(gè)新的匯率制度的產(chǎn)生往往有著深刻的歷史背景,對(duì)于我國而言,美國——這一支巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)力量自始至終都極大程度地影響著我國的金融體制與匯率形成機(jī)制。自中美貿(mào)易出現(xiàn)順差鴻溝伊始,美國便成為迫使人民幣升值的主力軍,并將順差作為要挾人民幣升值的理由,大肆鼓吹“中國威脅論”,而諸多唯美國馬首是瞻的西歐國家以及日韓等國也或多或少地拿我國與之貿(mào)易順差大做文章。 匯率改革七年來,美方依然堅(jiān)決地認(rèn)為人民幣理應(yīng)升值,其主要理由為：中國政府對(duì)貨幣運(yùn)行機(jī)制的人為操縱導(dǎo)致了美國嚴(yán)重的失業(yè)問題和巨大的貿(mào)易逆差。而截至2012年12月,人民幣兌美元匯率已跌至6.3左右,較匯率制度改革伊始時(shí)的8.27,人民幣足足升值了23.82%�？v觀2005年后的匯率與中美貿(mào)易相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),不難發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣匯率升值的同時(shí),中美貿(mào)易余額仍然在不斷擴(kuò)大,美國的貿(mào)易逆差并沒有像美國所希望的那樣隨人民幣的升值而有所減小。由此可見,人民幣升值不可能徹底解決中美之間嚴(yán)重的貿(mào)易失衡問題,美國數(shù)年來將其國內(nèi)嚴(yán)重的失業(yè)問題歸咎于人民幣幣值的低估也是毫無科學(xué)根據(jù)可言的。 本文將中美兩國于改革開放后的雙邊貿(mào)易情況以及兩國貨幣的匯率作為主要分析對(duì)象,首先對(duì)改革開放以來至今我國匯率制度的變遷及對(duì)應(yīng)同時(shí)期人民幣的匯率變動(dòng)情況進(jìn)行了回顧,并結(jié)合以上信息對(duì)1978年以來的中美貿(mào)易情況圖文并茂地進(jìn)行了分析；然后通過建立標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的兩國之間的不完全替代模型,選取2005年第一季度到2012年第三季度(季度數(shù)據(jù))的中美貿(mào)易收支、中國實(shí)際GDP、美國實(shí)際GDP和人民幣兌美元實(shí)際匯率的數(shù)據(jù)(經(jīng)名義匯率數(shù)據(jù)處理后得到),對(duì)人民幣兌美元實(shí)際匯率對(duì)中美貿(mào)易收支之間進(jìn)行了單位根檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)以及協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)中美貿(mào)易差額與人民幣兌美元實(shí)際匯率間的確存在協(xié)整關(guān)系。并且,筆者還計(jì)算出中美商品貿(mào)易的進(jìn)出口彈性之和約為1.56,滿足馬歇爾勒納條件,說明在短期內(nèi)匯率對(duì)中美兩國貿(mào)易有較為顯著的影響。 由此,筆者最后得出的結(jié)論為：匯率僅僅是造成中美貿(mào)易順差的輔因,真正的主因是美國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值,它對(duì)兩國貿(mào)易不平衡現(xiàn)象的產(chǎn)生存在最大的影響。此外,造成巨額順差的因素還有很多,包括中美兩國的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、美國對(duì)華的出口管制以及統(tǒng)計(jì)口徑的不一致等等。因此,美國逼迫人民幣升值,其醉翁之意不在酒,而是另有所圖——美國大選政治的需要、遏制中國的發(fā)展、減少對(duì)中國的巨額負(fù)債等等。在此基礎(chǔ)上,筆者進(jìn)一步針對(duì)緩解中美貿(mào)易順差這一問題提出自己的政策建議,主要從以下幾方面入手：一是根據(jù)中美貿(mào)易發(fā)展的具體情況進(jìn)一步完善人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制；二是轉(zhuǎn)變我國目前出口導(dǎo)向型的發(fā)展策略,擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需；三是多渠道優(yōu)化中美貿(mào)易的商品結(jié)構(gòu)；四是擴(kuò)大美國對(duì)華的服務(wù)貿(mào)易的進(jìn)口；五是打開視野,實(shí)現(xiàn)我國企業(yè)出口市場的多元化；六是抓住全球化機(jī)遇,推動(dòng)我國企業(yè)走出去的步伐,實(shí)現(xiàn)跨國經(jīng)營。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of diplomatic relations on January 1, 1979, China and the United States have cooperated extensively in various fields, such as politics, economy, culture and so on. Many achievements have been made, especially in the development of bilateral economy and trade. After 34 years of exchanges, the United States has become the most important trade partner of China, and China has become the biggest advance of the United States since 2007. According to the statistics of China Customs, the total merchandise trade between China and the United States between January and September 2012 reached 355.42 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.48 billion US dollars over the same period in 2011, 9 percentage points higher than the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period. Among them, the total merchan As a result, Sino-US economic and trade relations have risen from a mutually beneficial cooperative relationship to a mutually dependent strategic cooperative relationship.
However, the trade between the two countries has been in constant friction in recent years, which, in the view of the US side, is largely attributable to China's currency value. Since 2001, whether the value of the RMB is undervalued has aroused widespread concern and discussion in the international community and academic circles, and has risen from the initial simple economic issues to political issues, in this protracted war. On July 21, 2005, the People's Bank of China announced the implementation of a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a package of currencies, which will undoubtedly push the reform of China's exchange rate system to a new level. The emergence of a new exchange rate regime often has a profound historical background. For China, the United States, a huge economic force, has greatly influenced the financial system and exchange rate formation mechanism of China from beginning to end. Army, and the surplus as a reason to coerce the appreciation of the renminbi, widely advocated the "China threat theory", and many only the United States is looking forward to Western European countries and Japan and South Korea and other countries more or less to China's trade surplus with it.
Seven years after the exchange rate reform, the US side has remained firmly convinced that the Renminbi should appreciate, mainly because the Chinese government's manipulation of the currency operation mechanism has led to serious unemployment and a huge trade deficit in the United States. It is not difficult to find that the trade balance between China and the United States is still expanding, and the US trade deficit is not decreasing with the appreciation of the RMB as expected by the United States. There is no scientific basis for the U.S. to blame the undervaluation of the Renminbi for years of serious unemployment in the country, which could completely solve the serious trade imbalance between China and the United States.
This paper takes the bilateral trade situation between China and the United States after the reform and opening up and the exchange rate of their currencies as the main analysis object. First, it reviews the changes of China's exchange rate system since the reform and opening up and the exchange rate changes of RMB in the corresponding period, and combines the above information to analyze the Sino-US trade situation since 1978. Then, by establishing a standard incomplete substitution model between the two countries, we select the Sino-US trade balance from the first quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2012 (quarterly data), China's real GDP, the real GDP of the United States and the real exchange rate of Renminbi against the U.S. dollar (after processing the nominal exchange rate data), to the people. The unit root test, Granger causality test and cointegration test of the real exchange rate of RMB against US dollar show that there is a cointegration relationship between the trade balance between China and US and the real exchange rate of RMB against US dollar. The NAC conditions indicate that the exchange rate has a significant impact on Sino US trade in the short term.
Therefore, the author concludes that the exchange rate is only a subsidiary factor of the Sino-US trade surplus, and the real main factor is the US GDP, which has the greatest impact on the production and survival of the trade imbalance between the two countries. Therefore, the United States forces the appreciation of the RMB, and its drunken intention is not to drink, but to have other purposes - the needs of the U.S. election politics, to curb China's development, to reduce China's huge debt and so on. On this basis, the author further aims at alleviating the Sino-U.S. trade surplus this issue from the Our policy suggestions are as follows: firstly, to further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism according to the specific situation of Sino-US trade development; secondly, to change China's current export-oriented development strategy and expand domestic demand; thirdly, to optimize the commodity structure of Sino-US trade through multiple channels; and fourthly, to expand the service trade between the United States and China. Easy import; Fifth, open the horizon to realize the diversification of China's enterprises'export market; Sixth, seize the opportunity of globalization, promote the pace of China's enterprises going out and realize transnational operation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F752.7;F832.6
本文編號(hào)：2226396
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of diplomatic relations on January 1, 1979, China and the United States have cooperated extensively in various fields, such as politics, economy, culture and so on. Many achievements have been made, especially in the development of bilateral economy and trade. After 34 years of exchanges, the United States has become the most important trade partner of China, and China has become the biggest advance of the United States since 2007. According to the statistics of China Customs, the total merchandise trade between China and the United States between January and September 2012 reached 355.42 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.48 billion US dollars over the same period in 2011, 9 percentage points higher than the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period. Among them, the total merchan As a result, Sino-US economic and trade relations have risen from a mutually beneficial cooperative relationship to a mutually dependent strategic cooperative relationship.
However, the trade between the two countries has been in constant friction in recent years, which, in the view of the US side, is largely attributable to China's currency value. Since 2001, whether the value of the RMB is undervalued has aroused widespread concern and discussion in the international community and academic circles, and has risen from the initial simple economic issues to political issues, in this protracted war. On July 21, 2005, the People's Bank of China announced the implementation of a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a package of currencies, which will undoubtedly push the reform of China's exchange rate system to a new level. The emergence of a new exchange rate regime often has a profound historical background. For China, the United States, a huge economic force, has greatly influenced the financial system and exchange rate formation mechanism of China from beginning to end. Army, and the surplus as a reason to coerce the appreciation of the renminbi, widely advocated the "China threat theory", and many only the United States is looking forward to Western European countries and Japan and South Korea and other countries more or less to China's trade surplus with it.
Seven years after the exchange rate reform, the US side has remained firmly convinced that the Renminbi should appreciate, mainly because the Chinese government's manipulation of the currency operation mechanism has led to serious unemployment and a huge trade deficit in the United States. It is not difficult to find that the trade balance between China and the United States is still expanding, and the US trade deficit is not decreasing with the appreciation of the RMB as expected by the United States. There is no scientific basis for the U.S. to blame the undervaluation of the Renminbi for years of serious unemployment in the country, which could completely solve the serious trade imbalance between China and the United States.
This paper takes the bilateral trade situation between China and the United States after the reform and opening up and the exchange rate of their currencies as the main analysis object. First, it reviews the changes of China's exchange rate system since the reform and opening up and the exchange rate changes of RMB in the corresponding period, and combines the above information to analyze the Sino-US trade situation since 1978. Then, by establishing a standard incomplete substitution model between the two countries, we select the Sino-US trade balance from the first quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2012 (quarterly data), China's real GDP, the real GDP of the United States and the real exchange rate of Renminbi against the U.S. dollar (after processing the nominal exchange rate data), to the people. The unit root test, Granger causality test and cointegration test of the real exchange rate of RMB against US dollar show that there is a cointegration relationship between the trade balance between China and US and the real exchange rate of RMB against US dollar. The NAC conditions indicate that the exchange rate has a significant impact on Sino US trade in the short term.
Therefore, the author concludes that the exchange rate is only a subsidiary factor of the Sino-US trade surplus, and the real main factor is the US GDP, which has the greatest impact on the production and survival of the trade imbalance between the two countries. Therefore, the United States forces the appreciation of the RMB, and its drunken intention is not to drink, but to have other purposes - the needs of the U.S. election politics, to curb China's development, to reduce China's huge debt and so on. On this basis, the author further aims at alleviating the Sino-U.S. trade surplus this issue from the Our policy suggestions are as follows: firstly, to further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism according to the specific situation of Sino-US trade development; secondly, to change China's current export-oriented development strategy and expand domestic demand; thirdly, to optimize the commodity structure of Sino-US trade through multiple channels; and fourthly, to expand the service trade between the United States and China. Easy import; Fifth, open the horizon to realize the diversification of China's enterprises'export market; Sixth, seize the opportunity of globalization, promote the pace of China's enterprises going out and realize transnational operation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F752.7;F832.6
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