發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-16 09:31

【摘要】：從1998年中國(guó)取消福利分房制度以后,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)迅速發(fā)展,并日益成為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。隨著房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程加快,房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲,不僅超出了居民的基本收入水平,影響到居民的生活質(zhì)量,也不利于國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)平穩(wěn)發(fā)展,房?jī)r(jià)問(wèn)題已經(jīng)成為社會(huì)廣泛關(guān)注的經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題。2008年從美國(guó)住房市場(chǎng)開始的金融危機(jī),造成了全球范圍的內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。2009年底到2010年,國(guó)務(wù)院先后出臺(tái)嚴(yán)格的房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策——“國(guó)十條”、“限購(gòu)令”,政策的實(shí)施到達(dá)了一定的效果,全國(guó)一線城市房?jī)r(jià)下降最猛。因此,如何有效的利用宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系,成為了各國(guó)政府要解決的重要問(wèn)題,本文所選取的題目具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文通過(guò)從理論到實(shí)證的研究方法,討論貨幣政策對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。理論部分包括：貨幣政策目標(biāo)和貨幣政策工具的理論,貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,房地產(chǎn)的雙重屬性,房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響因素,房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。本文的實(shí)證部分包括兩個(gè)方面：一是貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格,建立貨幣供應(yīng)量M2、利率對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響的變量模型；二是房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,分別從消費(fèi)和投資兩方面建立房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資額或社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額、金融機(jī)構(gòu)人民幣中長(zhǎng)期貸款之間的關(guān)系模型,在對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行處理的過(guò)程中運(yùn)用ADF單位根檢驗(yàn)、VAR(變量自相關(guān)模型)檢驗(yàn)法、Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、Granger因果檢驗(yàn),并建立誤差修正模型,最后得出結(jié)論。 本文包括五個(gè)部分。 第一章是緒論,主要介紹問(wèn)題研究的背景和意義,本文研究的主要思路和結(jié)構(gòu)。 第二章是建立本文的理論框架,首先介紹貨幣政策的相關(guān)理論,包括貨幣的工具,貨幣政策的中介目標(biāo),即利率和貨幣供應(yīng)量作為本文實(shí)證研究的工具。接著介紹房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)理論,主要是房地產(chǎn)作為商品和資產(chǎn)的雙重屬性,影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的因素,從而建立本文的模型框架。最后部分一是介紹貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,包括利率途徑、資產(chǎn)價(jià)格途徑、股票價(jià)格途徑和信貸途徑,接著就對(duì)本章要討論的貨幣供應(yīng)量和利率怎樣影響房?jī)r(jià)進(jìn)行論述；二是房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,在前面?zhèn)鲗?dǎo)機(jī)制的基礎(chǔ)上,本文通過(guò)房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)消費(fèi)和投資的影響兩方面進(jìn)行理論探討,也為后來(lái)實(shí)證研究打下基礎(chǔ)。 第三章是理論聯(lián)系實(shí)際的章節(jié),主要介紹中國(guó)貨幣政策的發(fā)展歷程,以及在這個(gè)過(guò)程中房地產(chǎn)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,可以看到隨著央行貨幣政策職能的增強(qiáng),對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的調(diào)控能力增強(qiáng),同時(shí)對(duì)于房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響也在日益加強(qiáng)。最后介紹了中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,主要從房屋一級(jí)、二級(jí)和三級(jí)市場(chǎng)來(lái)觀察,可以發(fā)現(xiàn)宏觀調(diào)控對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響大,特別是目前嚴(yán)厲的宏觀調(diào)控政策,對(duì)高漲的房?jī)r(jià)起到了非常大的抑制作用。 第四章是本文的實(shí)證部分,通過(guò)前面幾章的理論支撐,本文搜集了2002年1月到2011年12月宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)月度數(shù)據(jù),通過(guò)對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計(jì)量處理,包括ADF單位根檢驗(yàn)、VAR(變量自相關(guān)模型)檢驗(yàn)法、Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、建立誤差修正模型以及Granger因果檢驗(yàn)。實(shí)證研究的結(jié)果表明,在檢驗(yàn)的樣本期內(nèi),我國(guó)貨幣政策通過(guò)調(diào)控利率進(jìn)而影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的途徑在傳導(dǎo)過(guò)程中不是很通暢,存在一定的問(wèn)題。房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)傳導(dǎo)的消費(fèi)效應(yīng)比較顯著,而房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)傳導(dǎo)的投資效應(yīng)不顯著,總的來(lái)說(shuō),我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制中也存在一定問(wèn)題。 第五章是結(jié)論章節(jié),通過(guò)理論和實(shí)證研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)從2002年到2011年,中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制并不是理論所描述的那樣,甚至?xí)霈F(xiàn)相反的結(jié)論。于是這一章主要討論貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制阻滯及其原因,包括貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制本身的問(wèn)題、市場(chǎng)參與者的問(wèn)題以及房地產(chǎn)區(qū)域化差異的問(wèn)題,最后對(duì)這些問(wèn)題提出自己的政策建議,包括積極推動(dòng)利率市場(chǎng)化改革,加快建設(shè)保障房和廉租房以及差異化的貨幣和財(cái)政金融政策等。 本文的貢獻(xiàn)在于：2008年金融危機(jī)以后,中國(guó)政府為了保證經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)和防止房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)泡沫出現(xiàn),頻繁調(diào)整貨幣政策以及其他相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)政策。本文采用了最新的數(shù)據(jù)直到2011年底,檢驗(yàn)了中國(guó)貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制是否存在傳導(dǎo)阻滯,并對(duì)傳導(dǎo)阻滯的產(chǎn)生原因進(jìn)行了分析。
[Abstract]:Since China abolished the welfare housing system in 1998, the real estate market has developed rapidly and has increasingly become a pillar industry of the national economy. With the acceleration of the marketization of real estate, the price of real estate continues to rise, which not only exceeds the basic income level of residents, but also affects the quality of life of residents, and is not conducive to the steady development of the national economy. From the end of 2009 to 2010, the State Council successively promulgated a strict real estate control policy - "State Ten Articles", "Purchase Restriction Order". The implementation of the policy has arrived. Therefore, how to effectively use macroeconomic policies to coordinate the relationship between economic development and the development of the real estate market has become an important issue for governments to solve. The topics selected in this paper have important practical significance.
This paper discusses the impact of monetary policy on the real estate market and the real estate market on the real economy by means of theoretical and empirical research. The empirical part of this paper includes two aspects: first, the impact of monetary policy on real estate prices, the establishment of money supply M2, the variable model of interest rate on real estate prices; second, the impact of real estate prices on the real economy, respectively, from consumption and investment to establish real estate prices, the whole society. The relationship model between fixed assets investment or total retail sales of consumer goods and RMB medium and long-term loans of financial institutions is established. ADF unit root test, VAR (variable autocorrelation model) test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and error correction model are used to process the data.
This article includes five parts.
The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background and significance of the research, the main ideas and structure of this study.
The second chapter is to establish the theoretical framework of this paper. Firstly, it introduces the relevant theories of monetary policy, including monetary tools, intermediary targets of monetary policy, namely interest rates and money supply as empirical tools. Then it introduces the theory of real estate market, mainly the dual attributes of real estate as commodities and assets, which affect real estate prices. The last part introduces the transmission mechanism of monetary policy affecting real estate price, including interest rate path, asset price path, stock price path and credit path, and then discusses how the money supply and interest rate affect the house price. On the basis of the previous transmission mechanism, this paper discusses the impact of housing prices on consumption and investment in theory, and lays a foundation for the subsequent empirical study.
The third chapter is the chapter of integrating theory with practice. It mainly introduces the development of China's monetary policy and the development of real estate in this process. It can be seen that with the strengthening of the central bank's monetary policy functions, the ability to regulate the economy has been enhanced, and the impact on real estate prices has been strengthened day by day. The development of the real estate market, mainly from the primary, secondary and tertiary housing market to observe, we can find that macro-control has a great impact on real estate prices, especially the current stringent macro-control policies, on the rising housing prices have played a very large inhibitory role.
The fourth chapter is the empirical part of this paper. Based on the theoretical support of the previous chapters, this paper collects the monthly data of macro-economy and real estate market from January 2002 to December 2011. The empirical results show that the way of monetary policy affecting real estate prices through regulating interest rates is not smooth in the transmission process, and there are some problems. The real estate price has a significant consumption effect on the real economy transmission, while the real estate price has a significant transmission effect on the real economy. The investment effect is not significant. Generally speaking, there are some problems in the transmission mechanism of real estate prices affecting the real economy.
The fifth chapter is the conclusion chapter. Through theoretical and empirical research, it is found that from 2002 to 2011, the transmission mechanism of China's real estate market is not as described in theory, or even will have the opposite conclusion. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on these issues, including actively promoting the market-oriented reform of interest rates, speeding up the construction of affordable housing and low-rent housing, and differentiating monetary and financial policies.
The contribution of this paper is as follows: After the 2008 financial crisis, the Chinese government frequently readjusted monetary policy and other related industrial policies in order to ensure stable economic growth and prevent the emergence of real estate bubbles. The causes of conduction block were also analyzed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F293.3;F224

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