【摘要】：地方政府融資平臺是以地方政府為主體，，以所屬投融資機構(gòu)為載體，主要承擔政府在本地進行城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)等公共項目的開發(fā)。2008年，國家為了應(yīng)對全球金融風(fēng)暴、繼續(xù)城市化建設(shè)等，開始大力支持地方政府融資平臺的發(fā)展，并取得了良好的成效。隨后融資平臺進入了高速擴張階段，使得貸款規(guī)模迅速膨脹，導(dǎo)致目前地方政府融資平臺已經(jīng)進入償債高峰期，并且面臨著較大還貸壓力。雖然國務(wù)院在2010年下發(fā)了關(guān)于加強地方政府融資平臺公司管理的通知，銀監(jiān)會在2012年已經(jīng)開始研究如何給融資平臺的貸款進行有條件的延期，但融資平臺面臨的償債風(fēng)險仍然不小。 以上情況表明，如何應(yīng)對地方政府融資平臺在償債高峰期存在的貸款風(fēng)險，已經(jīng)成為一個重點關(guān)注的問題。首先研究了地方政府融資平臺的概念和發(fā)展過程，貸款風(fēng)險的基本理論，比較了KMV、Credit Risk+和Credit Metrics三種貸款風(fēng)險度量模型的特點和優(yōu)缺點。接著分析了我國地方政府融資平臺當前的債務(wù)情況，貸款風(fēng)險的可能成因與潛在后果，以及融資平臺貸款風(fēng)險實際案例。然后通過使用Credit Metrics模型計算VaR在險價值來建模，并結(jié)合融資平臺公司的貸款進行實證，驗證我國融資平臺的貸款風(fēng)險。最后提出對融資平臺貸款風(fēng)險進行監(jiān)管與防范的策略。 根據(jù)我國地方政府融資平臺的特征和貸款風(fēng)險情況，結(jié)合實際研究了如何對融資平臺的貸款風(fēng)險進行更好的度量，提出了融資平臺的貸款風(fēng)險管理策略，將有助于加強對地方政府融資平臺貸款風(fēng)險的防范和管理，保障我國地方政府融資平臺的健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Local government financing platform is a local government as the main body, with affiliated investment and financing institutions as the carrier, mainly undertake the government in the local urban infrastructure construction and other public projects development. In 2008, the country in order to cope with the global financial turmoil, Continued urbanization, began to support the development of local government financing platform, and achieved good results. Then the financing platform entered the stage of rapid expansion, which made the loan scale expand rapidly, leading to the current local government financing platform has entered the peak of debt service, and is facing a greater pressure to repay the loan. Although the State Council issued a notice in 2010 on strengthening the management of local government financing platform companies, the CBRC began to study in 2012 how to extend loans to the financing platform in a conditional manner. But the financing platform faces the repayment risk is still not small. The above situation shows that how to deal with the loan risk of local government financing platform in the peak of debt servicing has become a key concern. Firstly, this paper studies the concept and development process of local government financing platform, the basic theory of loan risk, and compares the characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of three loan risk measurement models: KMV Credit Risk and Credit Metrics. Then it analyzes the current debt situation of the local government financing platform, the possible causes and potential consequences of the loan risk, and the actual cases of the financing platform loan risk. Then, by using Credit Metrics model to calculate the value of VaR in risk, and combining with the loan of the financing platform company to verify the loan risk of the financing platform in China. Finally, the paper puts forward some strategies to supervise and prevent the loan risk of financing platform. According to the characteristics of local government financing platform and the situation of loan risk, this paper studies how to better measure the loan risk of financing platform, and puts forward the loan risk management strategy of financing platform. It will help to strengthen the prevention and management of loan risk of local government financing platform and ensure the healthy development of local government financing platform.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.4

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