人民幣匯率變化對廣東省進出口影響實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-26 06:59
【摘要】：自2005年7月21日中國人民銀行宣布實行匯率體制改革以來,人民幣開始步入大幅升值的軌道,截止到2012年8月底已累計升值23.33%。2012年4月16日央行再次宣布提高銀行間即期外匯市場美元兌人民幣交易價浮動幅度,即由最初的0.3%到0.5%,再到現(xiàn)在的1%,人民幣匯率更具彈性。廣東省作為我國最大的對外貿(mào)易主體,是典型的外向型經(jīng)濟,其進出口總額連續(xù)多年來一直穩(wěn)居我國首位,占全國進出口總額的四分之一以上。匯率,作為調(diào)節(jié)對外貿(mào)易的關(guān)鍵變量,對廣東省進出口的影響范圍更大、程度更深。因此本文以廣東省為研究對象,深入研究匯率變化對其進出口的影響。 文章首先對匯率變化影響進出口的相關(guān)理論進行了梳理和總結(jié)。隨后在對人民幣匯率變化情況和廣東省進出口貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀進行描述性分析的基礎(chǔ)上,分別從短期和長期兩個方面實證研究了人民幣匯率變化對廣東省進出口的影響。短期分析主要借鑒Cushmax的分析模型,將雙邊匯率水平變化和第三國匯率風(fēng)險納入研究范疇,綜合分析匯率變化對廣東省進出口的短期影響。研究表明,雙邊匯率水平變化和第三國匯率風(fēng)險均對廣東省進出口產(chǎn)生顯著影響,但第三國匯率風(fēng)險的影響方向是不確定的。長期分析基于傳統(tǒng)的供求分析理論,使用彈性分析法,對人民幣實際有效匯率與廣東省進出口的長期關(guān)系進行了協(xié)整檢驗。結(jié)論顯示,人民幣升值將促進廣東省進口的增長,但對廣東省出口產(chǎn)生顯著的負(fù)向影響。最后針對實證分析結(jié)論,分別從我國政府和進出口企業(yè)兩個角度提出改善廣東省進出口貿(mào)易的相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the people's Bank of China announced the reform of the exchange rate system in July 21, 2005, the RMB has begun to step into the track of substantial appreciation. By the end of August 2012, the central bank has revalued the exchange rate of the exchange market in the inter bank exchange market to increase the exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate, from the initial 0.3% to 0.5%, from the initial 0.3% to 0.5%. At present 1%, the RMB exchange rate is more flexible. As the largest foreign trade subject in China, Guangdong is the typical export-oriented economy. Its import and export volume has been the first place in China for many years, accounting for more than 1/4 of the total import and export of the country. The exchange rate, as the key variable in the regulation of foreign trade, is the shadow of the import and export of Guangdong province. This article takes Guangdong Province as the research object, and deeply studies the impact of exchange rate changes on its import and export.
First, the paper combs and summarizes the related theories of exchange rate change affecting import and export. Then, on the basis of a descriptive analysis of the change of RMB exchange rate and the status of Guangdong import and export trade, the effect of the change of RMB exchange rate on the import and export of Guangdong province is empirically studied in two aspects of short-term and long-term. Based on the analysis model of Cushmax, the change of bilateral exchange rate and the risk of the third country exchange rate are included in the study category, and the short-term influence of exchange rate changes on the import and export of Guangdong province is synthetically analyzed. The study shows that the change of bilateral exchange rate and the exchange rate risk of the third country have a significant influence on the import and export of Guangdong Province, but the exchange rate wind of the third country is the same. The long-term analysis based on the traditional supply and demand analysis theory and the elastic analysis method, the long-term relationship between the actual effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export of Guangdong province is cointegration test. The conclusion shows that the appreciation of RMB will promote the increase of the import of Guangdong Province, but there is a significant negative shadow on the export of Guangdong province. Finally, according to the conclusion of empirical analysis, we put forward relevant policies and suggestions to improve Guangdong's import and export trade from two perspectives, namely, our government and import and export enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.6
本文編號：2145221
[Abstract]:Since the people's Bank of China announced the reform of the exchange rate system in July 21, 2005, the RMB has begun to step into the track of substantial appreciation. By the end of August 2012, the central bank has revalued the exchange rate of the exchange market in the inter bank exchange market to increase the exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate, from the initial 0.3% to 0.5%, from the initial 0.3% to 0.5%. At present 1%, the RMB exchange rate is more flexible. As the largest foreign trade subject in China, Guangdong is the typical export-oriented economy. Its import and export volume has been the first place in China for many years, accounting for more than 1/4 of the total import and export of the country. The exchange rate, as the key variable in the regulation of foreign trade, is the shadow of the import and export of Guangdong province. This article takes Guangdong Province as the research object, and deeply studies the impact of exchange rate changes on its import and export.
First, the paper combs and summarizes the related theories of exchange rate change affecting import and export. Then, on the basis of a descriptive analysis of the change of RMB exchange rate and the status of Guangdong import and export trade, the effect of the change of RMB exchange rate on the import and export of Guangdong province is empirically studied in two aspects of short-term and long-term. Based on the analysis model of Cushmax, the change of bilateral exchange rate and the risk of the third country exchange rate are included in the study category, and the short-term influence of exchange rate changes on the import and export of Guangdong province is synthetically analyzed. The study shows that the change of bilateral exchange rate and the exchange rate risk of the third country have a significant influence on the import and export of Guangdong Province, but the exchange rate wind of the third country is the same. The long-term analysis based on the traditional supply and demand analysis theory and the elastic analysis method, the long-term relationship between the actual effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export of Guangdong province is cointegration test. The conclusion shows that the appreciation of RMB will promote the increase of the import of Guangdong Province, but there is a significant negative shadow on the export of Guangdong province. Finally, according to the conclusion of empirical analysis, we put forward relevant policies and suggestions to improve Guangdong's import and export trade from two perspectives, namely, our government and import and export enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.6
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，本文編號：2145221
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