【摘要】：2008年10月,北歐小國(guó)冰島的主權(quán)債務(wù)問(wèn)題就開(kāi)始逐漸顯現(xiàn),在之后的一兩年時(shí)間里,主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)全面暴露,并最終演變成歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)。歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)對(duì)各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了不小的沖擊,尤其使我國(guó)以出口拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的發(fā)展模式遭遇考驗(yàn)。我國(guó)擁有13億人口的廣泛市場(chǎng),若要在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下滑的情況下保持較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),必需依靠?jī)?nèi)需,通過(guò)擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。由于消費(fèi)信貸在刺激消費(fèi)需求、促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)、改善銀行的資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)方面有十分重要的作用,我國(guó)金融機(jī)構(gòu)應(yīng)該大力發(fā)展消費(fèi)信貸業(yè)務(wù)。但遺憾的是,在歐美等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家發(fā)展已經(jīng)相當(dāng)成熟的消費(fèi)信貸在我國(guó)還只有短短十幾年的發(fā)展時(shí)間,其發(fā)展特征、方法都還在摸索階段。鑒于此,本文運(yùn)用實(shí)證分析的方法對(duì)我國(guó)消費(fèi)信貸的發(fā)展歷程、特征、對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的貢獻(xiàn)度等方面進(jìn)行了研究。文章首次利用中國(guó)31個(gè)省市的大量數(shù)據(jù),從學(xué)術(shù)角度全面分析了中國(guó)消費(fèi)信貸的數(shù)量特征,用平衡面板數(shù)據(jù)分析了消費(fèi)信貸對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)作用,并從五個(gè)方面研究了中國(guó)消費(fèi)信貸的可持續(xù)發(fā)展策略。 本論文分為五章。第一章為導(dǎo)論,闡述本論文研究的背景以及意義,評(píng)述有關(guān)這一問(wèn)題的國(guó)內(nèi)外研究成果,闡明研究方法和本文創(chuàng)新之處。第二章是消費(fèi)信貸概述,本章依次介紹了消費(fèi)信貸的產(chǎn)生和發(fā)展、消費(fèi)信貸的特點(diǎn)及分類(lèi)和消費(fèi)信貸在我國(guó)的發(fā)展歷史。第三章介紹了我國(guó)消費(fèi)信貸的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,并依次對(duì)中國(guó)消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)和中國(guó)消費(fèi)信貸市場(chǎng)做出分析,提出了我國(guó)現(xiàn)有消費(fèi)信貸發(fā)展存在的問(wèn)題。第四章即本文的實(shí)證分析部分,本章利用面板數(shù)據(jù),通過(guò)混合回歸、固定效應(yīng)分析法以及隨機(jī)效應(yīng)分析法來(lái)分析中國(guó)消費(fèi)信貸與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)GDP之間的計(jì)量關(guān)系。文章選取消費(fèi)信貸余額、GDP,城鎮(zhèn)居民可支配收入、房地產(chǎn)投資和凈出口五個(gè)個(gè)變量構(gòu)成計(jì)量模型。為了消除數(shù)據(jù)的非平穩(wěn)性,對(duì)變量取了對(duì)數(shù)。最終的結(jié)果表明我國(guó)消費(fèi)信貸每增長(zhǎng)一個(gè)百分點(diǎn),國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)0.06個(gè)百分點(diǎn),這個(gè)結(jié)果符合前文介紹的消費(fèi)信貸與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系的相關(guān)理論。第五章,本文探討了我國(guó)發(fā)展消費(fèi)信貸的對(duì)策,提出大力發(fā)展住房貸款、逐步加大汽車(chē)消費(fèi)信貸的市場(chǎng)份額、將推進(jìn)農(nóng)村消費(fèi)信貸作為增長(zhǎng)亮點(diǎn)和完善個(gè)人征信系統(tǒng)等對(duì)策與建議,此外,本文從貸前預(yù)防、貸中管理、貸后監(jiān)督三個(gè)方面提出了我國(guó)消費(fèi)信貸市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范的措施。
[Abstract]:In October 2008, the sovereign debt problem of Iceland, a small Nordic country, began to emerge, and in the following one or two years, the sovereign debt crisis was fully exposed and eventually developed into a European sovereign debt crisis. The European debt crisis has had a great impact on the economies of all countries, especially the export-led economic growth model of our country has been tested. China has a broad market of 1.3 billion people. If we want to maintain high economic growth while global economic growth is declining, we must rely on domestic demand to stimulate the economy by expanding consumption. Since consumer credit plays a very important role in stimulating consumer demand, promoting stable economic growth and improving the asset structure of banks, our financial institutions should vigorously develop consumer credit business. However, it is a pity that the developed countries such as Europe and America have developed quite mature consumer credit in China for only ten years, and its development characteristics and methods are still in the stage of exploration. In view of this, this paper uses the method of empirical analysis to study the development process, characteristics and contribution of China's total economic volume of consumer credit in China. This paper, for the first time, makes use of a large number of data from 31 provinces and cities in China to comprehensively analyze the quantitative characteristics of consumer credit in China from an academic point of view, and analyzes the pulling effect of consumer credit on China's economy by using balance panel data. The sustainable development strategy of consumer credit in China is studied from five aspects. This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is an introduction, which describes the background and significance of this paper, reviews the domestic and foreign research results on this issue, and clarifies the research methods and innovations of this paper. The second chapter is an overview of consumer credit. This chapter introduces the emergence and development of consumer credit, the characteristics and classification of consumer credit, and the history of consumer credit in China. The third chapter introduces the current situation of the development of consumer credit in China, and analyzes the consumer market and consumer credit market in turn, and puts forward the existing problems in the development of consumer credit in China. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis part of this paper, this chapter uses panel data, through mixed regression, fixed effect analysis and stochastic effect analysis to analyze the econometric relationship between China's consumer credit and macroeconomic GDP. This paper selects five variables of consumption credit balance GDP, disposable income of urban residents, real estate investment and net export to constitute the econometric model. In order to eliminate the nonstationarity of the data, the logarithm of the variables is taken. The final results show that for every one percentage point increase of consumer credit, GDP increases by 0.06 percentage points. This result is in line with the theory of the relationship between consumer credit and macro-economy. In the fifth chapter, this paper discusses the countermeasures of developing consumer credit in our country, and puts forward to develop housing loan vigorously and increase the market share of automobile consumption credit step by step. The countermeasures and suggestions of promoting rural consumer credit as a bright spot of growth and perfecting personal credit information system are put forward in this paper. In addition, this paper puts forward some measures to prevent the risk of consumer credit market in China from three aspects: pre-loan prevention, loan management and post-loan supervision.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.479

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