【摘要】：歐盟是我國(guó)對(duì)外出口的第一大貿(mào)易伙伴,歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的爆發(fā)影響到歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和消費(fèi)信心,使我國(guó)對(duì)歐出口面臨嚴(yán)重挑戰(zhàn),研究歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)對(duì)我國(guó)出口的影響具有理論與實(shí)踐意義。 本文從歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的爆發(fā)根源入手,了解引發(fā)歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的原因以及其傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,分析歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)給歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇帶來的影響,再從總需求的角度詳細(xì)分析歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)給我國(guó)對(duì)歐出口造成的影響,最后通過總模型以及面板數(shù)據(jù)分國(guó)家模型實(shí)證分析定量的得出歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)歐出口貿(mào)易的具體影響,其中包括我國(guó)對(duì)整個(gè)歐盟地區(qū)的出口的影響以及分別對(duì)危機(jī)國(guó)家、非危機(jī)國(guó)家出口的影響。 研究結(jié)果顯示,歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的爆發(fā)確實(shí)使得我國(guó)對(duì)歐出口大幅下降,特別是對(duì)機(jī)電產(chǎn)品、金屬制造品等價(jià)格彈性大、可替代性高的產(chǎn)品的影響最大。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示了主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)所導(dǎo)致的歐洲總需求的減少是使得我國(guó)對(duì)歐出口貿(mào)易額下降的最主要原因,而匯率這一變量的實(shí)證結(jié)果并不穩(wěn)定,因國(guó)家的差異其影響程度也略有差異,但總體上歐元對(duì)人民幣的貶值也將給我國(guó)對(duì)歐出口帶來負(fù)面影響,控制變量政府債務(wù)和單位勞動(dòng)成本均對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)歐出口具有一定影響力。 最后,本文建議我國(guó)應(yīng)盡快轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式、擴(kuò)大國(guó)內(nèi)需求、降低經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)出口的依賴,同時(shí)也要以歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)為戒,預(yù)防政府債務(wù)危機(jī)。具體為：第一、調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu),降低出口在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中所占的比例,加快實(shí)現(xiàn)出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)向內(nèi)需拉動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)變。第二、積極開拓多元化的海外市場(chǎng),優(yōu)化出口市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)。第三、注重結(jié)算貨幣和結(jié)算方式的靈活運(yùn)用,防止匯率波動(dòng)帶來的損失。第四、加強(qiáng)管理我國(guó)的財(cái)政收支以及各級(jí)政府債務(wù),合理控制政府債務(wù)規(guī)模,防范潛在的財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。第五、采取有效措施合理解決人口老齡化問題,制定符合國(guó)情的社會(huì)福利制度,保持合適的政府機(jī)構(gòu)。
[Abstract]:The European Union (EU) is the largest trading partner of China's foreign exports. The outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis has affected the economic development and consumer confidence of Europe and made China's exports to Europe face serious challenges. It is of theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of European sovereign debt crisis on China's exports. Starting with the origin of the European sovereign debt crisis, this paper analyzes the causes of the European sovereign debt crisis and its transmission mechanism, and analyzes the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on European economic development and global economic recovery. From the perspective of aggregate demand, the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on China's exports to Europe is analyzed in detail. Finally, through the general model and panel data sub-country model empirical analysis of quantitative analysis of the European sovereign debt crisis on China's export trade to Europe specific impact, It includes the impact of our country on the export of the whole EU region and on the exports of crisis countries and non-crisis countries respectively. The results show that the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis has made China's exports to Europe drop sharply, especially to the products with high price elasticity and high substitutability, such as mechanical and electrical products, metal manufactures and so on. The empirical results show that the reduction of total European demand caused by the sovereign debt crisis is the main reason for the decline of China's export trade to Europe, while the empirical results of the exchange rate variable are not stable. However, the depreciation of the euro to the RMB will also have a negative impact on China's exports to Europe. Controlling variable government debt and unit labor cost have certain influence on China's exports to Europe. Finally, this paper suggests that our country should change the mode of economic growth as soon as possible, expand domestic demand and reduce the dependence of economic growth on exports. At the same time, we should take the European sovereign debt crisis as a warning to prevent the government debt crisis. First, we should adjust the economic structure, reduce the proportion of export in our economy, and accelerate the transition from export-oriented economy to domestic demand driven economy. Second, actively develop diversified overseas markets and optimize the export market structure. Third, pay attention to the flexible use of settlement currency and settlement methods to prevent losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations. Fourth, we should strengthen the management of our country's fiscal revenue and expenditure and government debts at all levels, reasonably control the scale of government debt, and guard against potential financial risks. Fifth, we should take effective measures to solve the problem of population aging rationally, formulate a social welfare system suitable for our national conditions, and maintain appropriate government institutions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F831.59;F752.62;F224

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