本文選題：非正規(guī)金融 + 貨幣政策�。� 參考：《西南財經大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著各地民間借貸危機的密集爆發(fā),非正規(guī)金融被推到了風口浪尖上,非正規(guī)金融的合法化也又一次被提上議程。所謂非正規(guī)金融,從行政審批的角度上來說,是指那些沒有經過中央政府批準從而處于政府監(jiān)管之外的金融活動和金融機構,隨著經濟的不斷發(fā)展,這一概念如今還包括了那些由正規(guī)金融機構所主導和從事的不正規(guī)金融活動。 傳統(tǒng)的理論認為非正規(guī)金融是在金融抑制中萌芽的,發(fā)展中國家的金融抑制導致正規(guī)金融市場總是供給不足,由此產生了資金缺口；此外,在中國長期的二元經濟體制’下,金融資源的投放帶有很強的政策導向,以至于農村經濟和個體民營經濟很難獲得來源于正規(guī)金融機構的資金。正是在這種背景下,產生一個不同于正規(guī)金融市場的、能夠滿足多余資金需求的非金融市場,從而在中國形成了正規(guī)金融與非正規(guī)金融并存的二元金融體制。 與正規(guī)金融相比,非正規(guī)金融更加善于處理貸款中的“軟信息”,因此,在一定范圍內,非正規(guī)金融市場能夠有效克服道德風險,實現(xiàn)較低的邊際貸款成本。此外,非正規(guī)金融市場還能夠吸收社會閑散資金,來滿足借款人急迫的資金需求,從而達到有效配置社會資源的作用。但是,我們也看到,一方面,隨著參與主體范圍的擴大,非正規(guī)金融在克服道德風險上的優(yōu)勢會而逐漸消失；另一方面,由于非正規(guī)金融市場高收益回報的誘惑,越來越多的人參與到非正規(guī)金融活動中,從而資金鏈逐漸被拉長,以至于在監(jiān)管缺失的情況下,造成非正規(guī)金融市場的各種風險的累積,這些風險隨著非正規(guī)金融與正規(guī)金融的相互滲透而進入到正規(guī)金融體系,給金融的穩(wěn)定帶來巨大的潛在威脅,這也正是眾多學者呼吁讓非正規(guī)金融合法化的原因。 鑒于非正規(guī)金融存在潛在風險,本文創(chuàng)作的目的正是要研究政府能否通過實施貨幣政策對非正規(guī)金融市場進行調控?而非正規(guī)金融又能對貨幣政策帶來怎樣的影響?更重要的是在非正規(guī)金融與貨幣政策可能存在的關聯(lián)下思考非正規(guī)金融是否應當合法化?在合法化呼聲越來越高的今天是否還存在一些現(xiàn)實問題使得合法化不能順利推進?而如果存在這些問題,又能有什么樣的對策? 在結構上,本文共分為六部分。第一部分導論主要交代了非正規(guī)金融的一些背景,同時從存在性,利率研究和與宏觀經濟相關性三方面出發(fā)對非正規(guī)金融的相關文獻作了大致的回顧,另外,本章還闡明了創(chuàng)作的意圖和將要使用的方法。 本文第二部分對非正規(guī)金融的內涵作出了界定,明確了本文所討論的非正規(guī)金融范圍,同時對常見的幾種非正規(guī)金融組織形式進行了描述；另外,在這一部分,本文總結了非正規(guī)金融產生的理論邏輯并對個別理論進行了評價。 第三部分是關于我國非正規(guī)金融發(fā)展路徑的論述,這部分主要回顧了我國非正規(guī)金融組織形式的發(fā)展并以直觀簡明的圖表形式展示了該過程。另外,這部分還對最近我國非正規(guī)金融出現(xiàn)的新的趨勢作了論述,認為非正規(guī)金融由于資金流向趨于投機化、參與主體越來越多元化而累積了許多潛在的風險。 在第四部分,本文重點研究了貨幣政策對我國非正規(guī)金融的影響。該部分的研究從邏輯上來說有兩層,一層是說明在發(fā)展中國家普遍存在的利率管制下,正規(guī)金融市場總會產生資金缺口,從而導致了非正規(guī)金融市場的高利率；另一層是說明在這種資金缺口下,考慮正規(guī)金融市場可能存在尋租行為,那么當正規(guī)金融和非正規(guī)金融同時存在時,借款人選擇在哪個金融市場上融資取決于正規(guī)金融市場融資成本和非正規(guī)金融市場融資成本的比較,此時,正規(guī)金融利率與非正規(guī)金融利率間存在一個理論上的關系,在此關系之下,無論貨幣政策趨緊或是趨松,正規(guī)金融市場利率與非正規(guī)金融市場利率間總是存在著同向變動的趨勢,只不過變動的程度有差異。 第五部分是我國非正規(guī)金融對貨幣政策影響的分析及實證研究。在對相關文獻進行回顧的基礎上,本文從以下三個方面完成了該部分的研究：一是考慮了一個在非正規(guī)金融存在下的貨幣供給模型,通過分析說明了在一定范圍內,非正規(guī)金融的存在能夠使得實際的貨幣乘數(shù)變大,在基礎貨幣不變的情況下,增加社會實際貨幣供給量,反映出非正規(guī)金融市場可能具備一定的貨幣創(chuàng)造功能,此外,本文還從理論上分析了非正規(guī)金融的存在可能會影響貨幣流通速度以及干擾貨幣政策指向性；二是運用收入支出法對非正規(guī)金融信貸額進行了估算并就估算結果作出了分析,結果表明,估算出的非正規(guī)金融信貸規(guī)模遠遠低于正規(guī)金融信貸規(guī)模,此外,本文還結合宏觀經濟形勢的變化,對這一估算的非正規(guī)金融信貸額的變化進行了分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)非正規(guī)金融信貸規(guī)模的大小可以從側面反映出宏觀經濟形勢的變化；三是利用估算出的非正規(guī)金融信貸額對廣義貨幣M2做了實證分析,實證的思路是分別建立以廣義貨幣M2為被解釋變量,以正規(guī)金融信貸額為解釋變量的計量經濟模型和以廣義貨幣M2為被解釋變量,以正規(guī)及非正規(guī)金融信貸總額為解釋變量的計量經濟模型,而后通過分析這兩個模型的系數(shù)變化,判斷非正規(guī)金融對M2進而對貨幣政策的影響。在實證的過程中,為了消除異方差,首先對這三個變量取對數(shù),接著依次做了平穩(wěn)性檢驗,協(xié)整并建立了兩個具有長期均衡關系的回歸模型及各自的誤差修正模型。 本文通過觀察這兩個回歸模型的變量系數(shù),發(fā)現(xiàn)非正規(guī)金融信貸額對廣義貨幣M2僅產生了微小的正的影響,因此可以粗略認為非正規(guī)金融信貸額對M2的影響并沒有反映到M2的統(tǒng)計中；此外,本文對這部分微小的正的影響也做出了解釋,得出非正規(guī)金融的資金有一小部分來自于正規(guī)金融的結論,并就該結論輔以了相關數(shù)據(jù)支持。結合前文的理論分析,綜上,非正規(guī)金融既能擴大貨幣供給但又不易被觀察的特質會給宏觀經濟的平穩(wěn)運行帶來一定的影響,亦不利于貨幣政策的實施。 在第六部分中,本文通過以上理論和實證分析,明確了非正規(guī)金融與貨幣政策間的相互關聯(lián),故本文認為,從保持經濟活力,維持金融穩(wěn)定的角度出發(fā),非正規(guī)金融應該被合法化。鑒于此,本文進一步分析了目前非正規(guī)金融合法化仍面臨的現(xiàn)實困境是金融體制的長期壟斷性和立法細則難以達成共識。在未來非正規(guī)金融合法化的道路上,本文提出了一點拙見,即認為非正規(guī)金融的合法一方面需要制定專門的法律,另一方面需要有發(fā)揮最終貸款人作用的存款保險機構為非正規(guī)金融的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展保駕護航。 通過六個部分的論述,本文得出的觀點是：貨幣政策影響非正規(guī)金融市場利率,而非正規(guī)金融能夠擴大貨幣供給但這種影響無法反映在M2的統(tǒng)計中,從而抑制了以貨幣供給量為中介目標的貨幣政策的實施,因此,非正規(guī)金融尋求合法化道路。 本文的創(chuàng)作主要有以下三方面特點：一是本文通過理論模型得出非正規(guī)金融與貨幣政策間存在相互影響的關系；其次,本文在對非正規(guī)金融規(guī)模估算的過程中,運用了現(xiàn)有文獻中較少用到的收入支出法,并對估算過程作了詳細的說明,在此基礎上,將非正規(guī)金融信貸規(guī)模的估算擴展到了2009年；最后,本文運用計量檢驗的方法實證了非正規(guī)金融對貨幣供給量進而對貨幣政策的影響,在選取M2作為被解釋變量的基礎上,構造了兩個具有長期均衡關系的回歸模型,通過比較這兩個模型的系數(shù)得出非正規(guī)金融對貨幣供給量的影響在M2的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)中得到體現(xiàn)的結論,說明非正規(guī)金融使貨幣政策的效果難以被控制。 當然,本文的創(chuàng)作也存在一些不足。首先本文在估算非正規(guī)金融信貸規(guī)模時,由于原始數(shù)據(jù)的缺乏,沒能估算出近兩年的非正規(guī)金融信貸規(guī)模,同時,由于估算方法的缺陷,可能導致了估算結果偏�。辉僬�,本文進行實證時,僅僅選取了信貸規(guī)模作為解釋變量,沒有考慮其他因素對廣義貨幣的影響,可能使得模型的結果不夠精準。這些也正是論文本身今后還需努力的地方。
[Abstract]:With the dense outbreak of private lending crises, informal finance has been pushed to the tip of the storm, and the legalization of informal finance has been put on the agenda again. The so-called informal finance, from the perspective of administrative approval, refers to financial and financial machines that have not been approved by the central government and are outside government supervision. With the continuous development of the economy, the concept also includes informal financial activities dominated by formal financial institutions.
The traditional theory holds that informal finance is in the bud of financial restraining. The financial restraining of the developing countries leads to the shortage of the regular financial market, which leads to the shortage of funds. In addition, under the long-term two yuan economic system in China, the investment of financial resources has a strong policy orientation so that the rural economy and the individual are the individual. It is very difficult for the private economy to obtain funds from the regular financial institutions. It is in this context that a non-financial market, which is different from the regular financial market, can meet the needs of excess funds, has formed a two yuan financial system that coexists between regular finance and informal finance in China.
Compared with regular finance, informal finance is better at dealing with "soft information" in loans. Therefore, in a certain range, the informal financial market can effectively overcome the moral risk and achieve a lower marginal loan cost. In addition, the informal financial market can also absorb the idle funds to meet the urgent needs of the borrowers. In order to achieve the effective allocation of social resources, we also see that, on the one hand, with the expansion of the scope of participation, the advantages of informal finance in overcoming moral risks will gradually disappear; on the other hand, more and more people are involved in informal financial activities due to the temptation of high return on non formal financial markets. Therefore, the capital chain is gradually lengthened so that under the absence of supervision, the risk of the informal financial market is accumulated. These risks enter into the formal financial system with the mutual infiltration of informal finance and regular finance, and bring huge potential threat to the stability of the finance. The reasons for the integration of the rules of the rules.
In view of the potential risks of informal finance, the purpose of this article is to study whether the government can regulate the informal financial market through the implementation of monetary policy, and how does the informal finance affect the monetary policy? More importantly, it is not formal to think about the possible relationship between the informal finance and the currency policy. Should finance be legalized? Is there some realistic problems in today's legitimization calls for legalization that can not be promoted smoothly? And if these problems exist, what kind of countermeasures can there be?
In structure, this article is divided into six parts. The first part introduces some background of informal finance, and gives a general review of the related literature of informal finance from three aspects of existence, interest rate research and macroeconomic correlation. In addition, this chapter also clarifies the intention of the creation and the methods to be used.
The second part of this paper defines the connotation of informal finance, clarifies the informal financial scope discussed in this article, and describes the forms of several common informal financial organizations. In addition, in this part, this paper summarizes the theoretical logic of the informal finance and evaluates the individual theories.
The third part is about the informal financial development path of our country. This part mainly reviews the development of the informal financial organization in our country and shows the process in the form of intuitive and concise chart. In addition, this part also discusses the new trend of the recent informal finance in our country, and thinks that the informal finance is due to the funds. The flow tends to be opportunistic, and the participants are more and more diversified, which has accumulated many potential risks.
In the fourth part, this paper focuses on the impact of monetary policy on China's informal finance. This part of the study has two layers of logic, one is that under the prevailing interest rate control in developing countries, the formal financial market will produce a capital gap, thus leading to the high interest rate in the informal financial market; the other is the other. It shows that there may be rent-seeking behavior in the formal financial market under this financial gap, so when the regular finance and the informal finance exist simultaneously, the borrower's choice in which financial market depends on the comparison between the financing cost of the regular financial market and the financing cost of the informal financial market. At this time, the formal financial interest rate and the non positive financial market are not positive. There is a theoretical relationship between the regulatory financial interest rate, and under this relationship, no matter the tightening or loosening of monetary policy, there is always a trend of the same change between the interest rate of regular financial market and the interest rate of the informal financial market, but the degree of change is different.
The fifth part is the analysis and Empirical Study of the influence of Informal Finance on monetary policy in China. On the basis of reviewing related literature, this paper has completed the research from the following three aspects: first, it considers a model of money supply in the presence of informal finance, and shows that in a certain range, it is not positive. The existence of regular finance can make the actual monetary multiplier become larger, and increase the actual money supply of the society under the condition of the basic currency, which reflects that the informal financial market may have certain monetary creation function. In addition, this paper also theoretically analyses the existence of irregular gold melting in theory. The directivity of monetary policy is disturbed; two is the use of income expenditure method to estimate the amount of informal financial credit and analyze the results of the estimate. The results show that the estimated size of the informal financial credit is far below the scale of the regular financial credit. In addition, this paper also combines the changes in the macroeconomic situation to the informal gold of this estimate. The changes in the amount of credit credit are analyzed, and the size of the informal financial credit can be reflected from the side of the macroeconomic situation. Three, the empirical analysis of the generalized currency M2 is made by using the estimated amount of informal financial credit. The empirical idea is to establish the generalized currency M2 as the explanatory variable and the formal finance. The econometric model of the amount of credit is the explanatory variable and the econometric model which takes the M2 as the explanatory variable and the formal and informal financial credit as the explanatory variable. Then by analyzing the change of the coefficient of the two models, the influence of the informal finance on the policy of M2 to the currency is judged. In addition to the heteroscedasticity, the logarithm of the three variables is first taken, then the stability test is done in turn, and two regression models with long-term equilibrium relations and their respective error correction models are co integrated and established.
By observing the variable coefficients of the two regression models, this paper finds that the amount of informal financial credit has only a slight positive effect on the generalized monetary M2, so it can be roughly considered that the effect of the informal financial credit on the M2 is not reflected in the statistics of M2; moreover, the small positive impact of this part is also explained. It is concluded that a small part of informal finance comes from the conclusion of formal finance, and the conclusion is supported by relevant data. In combination with the previous theoretical analysis, the characteristics of informal finance which can not only expand the supply of money but are not easily observed will bring a certain impact on the smooth operation of the macro-economy, and it is also not conducive to the monetary policy. The implementation of the policy.
In the sixth part, through the above theory and empirical analysis, the interrelation between informal finance and monetary policy is clarified. Therefore, this paper believes that the informal finance should be legalized from the perspective of maintaining economic vitality and maintaining financial stability. In view of this, this paper further analyzes the current informal financial legalization still facing. The real dilemma is that the long-term monopoly of the financial system and the legislative rules are difficult to reach a consensus. On the road of the legalization of the informal finance in the future, this paper puts forward a little humble opinion, that is to think that the legal one on the one hand of informal finance needs to make special laws, and on the other hand, the deposit insurance institution with the role of the lender of final credit is needed. The stable development of formal finance is escorted.
Through the discussion of six parts, the point of view is that monetary policy affects the interest rate of the informal financial market, while the non formal finance can expand the supply of money, but this effect can not be reflected in the statistics of M2, thus restraining the implementation of the monetary policy with the target of the money supply as the intermediary, therefore, the informal finance seeks to legalize it. Road.
This paper has the following three main features: first, this paper obtains the mutual influence between the informal finance and the monetary policy through the theoretical model. Secondly, in the process of estimating the informal financial scale, this paper uses the income expenditure method which is less used in the existing literature, and gives a detailed account of the estimation process. On this basis, the estimation of the scale of informal financial credit is extended to 2009. Finally, this paper uses the method of measurement test to demonstrate the influence of the informal finance on the monetary supply and then to the monetary policy. On the basis of the selection of M2 as the explanatory variable, two regression models with long-term equilibrium relationship are constructed. By comparing the coefficients of the two models, the results of the impact of Informal Finance on the supply of money in the M2 statistics show that the effect of the informal finance is difficult to be controlled.
Of course, there are also some shortcomings in this paper. First of all, this paper, when estimating the scale of informal financial credit, can not estimate the size of the informal financial credit in the last two years due to the lack of original data. At the same time, because of the defect of the estimation method, it may lead to a small estimate. The scale of the loan, as an explanatory variable, does not take into account the influence of other factors on the broad currency, which may make the results of the model not accurate enough. These are also where the paper itself needs to work hard in the future.

【學位授予單位】：西南財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832;F822.0

【引證文獻】

相關碩士學位論文 前1條

1 王志紅;非正規(guī)金融融資研究[D];內蒙古大學;2013年

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本文編號：1882796