本文選題：有色金屬 + 股價均線��； 參考：《電子科技大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：有色金屬材料作為重要的工業(yè)原材料，是經(jīng)濟建設(shè)中必備的戰(zhàn)略性資源，被廣泛應(yīng)用于電子、機械、汽車、建筑、包裝、冶金、國防和高科技領(lǐng)域，，在國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中具有相當(dāng)重要的地位。目前，正是中國經(jīng)濟處于轉(zhuǎn)型和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的時期，有色金屬行業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整為投資者提供了新的投資機會；而資源的稀缺性、不可再生性以及全球資源持續(xù)的緊缺，也預(yù)示著小金屬與稀土永磁類價格將在波動中持續(xù)上漲。介于有色金屬行業(yè)充滿著投資機會，本文選取有色金屬行業(yè)上市公司為研究對象，進行基本面和技術(shù)面的綜合分析，為投資者決策提供理論指導(dǎo)和決策參考。 在借鑒前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上，本文在對上市公司的投資價值分析中，依次對宏觀經(jīng)濟形勢、行業(yè)發(fā)展勢態(tài)、公司內(nèi)在價值三個層面進行分析。對宏觀經(jīng)濟形式的分析包括了目前國際經(jīng)濟與有色金屬的形勢、國內(nèi)有色金屬的環(huán)境、國家政策導(dǎo)向等方面的內(nèi)容，其目的在于把握適當(dāng)?shù)耐顿Y機會，通過分析得出在目前國際整體經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇動量放緩的情況下，稀缺和受政策保護的有色金屬仍具有投資價值。行業(yè)發(fā)展勢態(tài)方面介紹了有色金屬的分類、國內(nèi)行業(yè)發(fā)展的特點的分析。得出小金屬與稀土永磁類的發(fā)展趨勢良好，仍具備投資價值的結(jié)論。 對公司內(nèi)在價值投資的分析中，本文選擇從公司財務(wù)和市場兩個方面來進行分析，而前人的研究主要是從財務(wù)方面進行評價。具體分析中本文首先選取常用的公司財務(wù)評價指標(biāo)，從公司的長短期償債能力、公司獲利能力、股東獲利能力、發(fā)展能力，現(xiàn)金流量以及股票價格七個方面共十八項指標(biāo)建立了投資價值評價體系。然后利用股票市場中常用的移動平均線分析法，在以大盤指數(shù)為參考的前提下，選擇各公司的120日股價均線值為臨界值，對所研究的上市公司進行初步評價，并從62家上市公司中選出達到臨界值的31家上市公司。再利用2011年的年報數(shù)據(jù)與建立的評價指標(biāo)體系對31家上市公司做進一步的主成分分析，根據(jù)主成分分析結(jié)果計算出各公司的綜合得分排名。最后，用最新的股票市場價格走勢比較排名前后三位的公司，經(jīng)過驗證得出本文的研究結(jié)果是正確、有效、適用的。
[Abstract]:As an important industrial raw material, nonferrous metal material is a necessary strategic resource in economic construction. It is widely used in the fields of electronics, machinery, automobile, construction, packaging, metallurgy, national defense and high technology. It plays a very important role in the development of national economy. At present, China's economy is in a period of transformation and structural adjustment, and the restructuring of the non-ferrous metal industry has provided investors with new investment opportunities, while the scarcity of resources, non-reproducibility and the persistent shortage of global resources, Also foreshadowing small metals and rare earth permanent magnet prices will continue to rise in volatility. Since nonferrous metal industry is full of investment opportunities, this paper selects listed companies of nonferrous metal industry as the research object, carries on the fundamental and technical comprehensive analysis, provides the theory guidance and the decision-making reference for the investor decision-making. On the basis of previous studies, this paper analyzes the investment value of listed companies from three aspects: macroeconomic situation, industry development situation and internal value of the company. The analysis of macroeconomic forms includes the current situation of the international economy and non-ferrous metals, the domestic environment of non-ferrous metals, the orientation of national policies, and so on, with the aim of seizing appropriate investment opportunities, Through analysis, it is concluded that the rare and policy-protected non-ferrous metals still have investment value under the condition of the slowdown of the international economic recovery momentum. This paper introduces the classification of nonferrous metals and the characteristics of domestic industry development. It is concluded that the development trend of small metals and rare earth permanent magnets is good and still has investment value. In the analysis of the internal value investment of the company, this paper chooses to analyze from the two aspects of company finance and market, while the former research is mainly from the financial aspect to carry on the appraisal. In the specific analysis, this paper first selects the commonly used corporate financial evaluation indicators, from the company's long-term and short-term solvency, corporate profitability, shareholders' profitability, development capacity, Cash flow and stock price seven aspects of a total of 18 indicators set up an investment value evaluation system. Then, using the moving average analysis method commonly used in the stock market, under the premise of taking the large market index as the reference, selecting the 120-day stock price average value of each company as the critical value, the preliminary evaluation of the listed company is carried out. And from the 62 listed companies to select the critical value of 31 listed companies. Then we use the annual report data of 2011 and the evaluation index system to do further principal component analysis on 31 listed companies. According to the results of principal component analysis, we calculate the comprehensive score ranking of each company. Finally, the latest stock market price trend is used to compare the three companies before and after ranking, and it is proved that the research results are correct, effective and applicable.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F426.32;F832.51;F224

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