本文選題：人民幣升值 + 制造業(yè)就業(yè)��； 參考：《山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：2005年，央行宣布對(duì)人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制進(jìn)行改革，由單一盯住美元的固定匯率制變革為以外匯市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)、有管理的、參考一籃子貨幣的浮動(dòng)匯率制。自匯改以來人民幣不斷升值，引發(fā)了政府、社會(huì)、學(xué)者對(duì)人民幣升值影響就業(yè)的極大關(guān)注，升值影響就業(yè)成為一個(gè)社會(huì)熱點(diǎn)問題。近年來，，山東省制造業(yè)發(fā)展迅速，在吸納勞動(dòng)力、擴(kuò)大山東省就業(yè)總量、降低失業(yè)率方面起著舉足輕重的作用。進(jìn)入新的世紀(jì)以來，山東省仍面臨較大的就業(yè)壓力，山東省在積極打造半島藍(lán)色經(jīng)濟(jì)圈、加大經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整力度、大力發(fā)展制造業(yè)的的同時(shí)也在千方百計(jì)的擴(kuò)大就業(yè)，而人民幣升值勢(shì)必對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來一系列沖擊，這些沖擊將不可避免的影響山東省制造業(yè)的發(fā)展速度、制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，從而帶來山東省制造業(yè)就業(yè)總量、就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化。在此背景下，研究人民幣升值對(duì)山東省制造業(yè)就業(yè)的影響，不但能夠?qū)⑷嗣駧派涤绊懼圃鞓I(yè)的機(jī)理清晰化，還能為政府進(jìn)一步發(fā)展、調(diào)整制造業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)以充分發(fā)揮制造業(yè)在擴(kuò)大山東省就業(yè)方面所起的重要作用而指明方向及提供政策建議。 本文首先就國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)匯率變化和就業(yè)之間關(guān)系所進(jìn)行的研究以及得出的觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行闡述，并對(duì)上述觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行概括總結(jié)；界定了名義匯率、實(shí)際匯率、勞動(dòng)就業(yè)等概念，同時(shí)，介紹了匯率影響就業(yè)的相關(guān)理論，包括總需求理論、資本代替勞動(dòng)效應(yīng)、馬歇爾勒納條件等，然后以這些理論為分析依據(jù)，認(rèn)真研究人民幣升值影響制造業(yè)就業(yè)的機(jī)理，規(guī)范性闡述人民幣升值如何影響制造業(yè)就業(yè)。 其次，以山東省制造業(yè)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。對(duì)人民幣升值影響就業(yè)進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)，并運(yùn)用OLS法、誤差修正（ECM）等方法進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，研究人民幣升值對(duì)山東省制造業(yè)就業(yè)影響的顯著程度。 最后，通過理論分析加實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，得出結(jié)論：一、人民幣的小幅升值利于山東省制造業(yè)就業(yè)總量的擴(kuò)大；即人民幣小幅升值對(duì)制造業(yè)就業(yè)帶來的崗位創(chuàng)造效應(yīng)大于破壞效應(yīng)，總效應(yīng)為正。二、人民幣升值對(duì)不同的制造業(yè)部門有不同的影響：抑制勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展，減少其就業(yè)量；利于高科技制造業(yè)的發(fā)展從而利于就業(yè)的擴(kuò)大。
[Abstract]:In 2005, the central bank announced the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, from a single fixed exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar to a floating exchange rate system based on supply and demand in the foreign exchange market and managed with reference to a basket of currencies. Since the exchange rate reform, RMB appreciation has aroused great concern from the government, society and scholars that RMB appreciation affects employment, which has become a hot social issue. In recent years, the manufacturing industry of Shandong Province has developed rapidly, which plays an important role in absorbing labor force, expanding the total employment of Shandong Province and reducing the unemployment rate. Since entering the new century, Shandong Province is still facing greater employment pressure. While actively building the blue economic circle on the peninsula, increasing the intensity of economic restructuring, and vigorously developing manufacturing industries, Shandong Province is also doing everything possible to expand employment. The appreciation of RMB is bound to bring a series of shocks to the economy, which will inevitably affect the speed of the development of manufacturing industry in Shandong Province, the adjustment of the industrial structure of manufacturing industry, thus bringing about the total employment volume and the change of employment structure of manufacturing industry in Shandong Province. In this context, studying the impact of RMB appreciation on manufacturing employment in Shandong Province can not only clarify the mechanism of RMB appreciation affecting manufacturing industry, but also further develop the government. Adjusting the structure of manufacturing industry to give full play to the important role of manufacturing industry in expanding employment in Shandong Province, pointing out the direction and providing policy suggestions. In this paper, first of all, the author expatiates on the relationship between exchange rate change and employment, and summarizes the above views, defines the concepts of nominal exchange rate, real exchange rate, labor employment and so on. This paper introduces the relevant theories of exchange rate influencing employment, including the theory of aggregate demand, the effect of capital replacing labor, Marshall Lerner condition and so on. Based on these theories, the paper studies the mechanism of RMB appreciation influencing the employment of manufacturing industry. Normative expound how appreciation of RMB affects manufacturing employment. Secondly, the employment data of Shandong manufacturing industry are analyzed empirically. On the basis of stability test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, OLS method and error correction method are used to analyze the influence of RMB appreciation on employment. To study the impact of RMB appreciation on manufacturing employment in Shandong Province. Finally, through theoretical analysis and empirical test, we draw a conclusion: first, the small appreciation of RMB is conducive to the expansion of the total employment of manufacturing industry in Shandong Province; that is, the effect of small appreciation of RMB on the employment of manufacturing industry is greater than the destructive effect. The total effect is positive. Second, the appreciation of RMB has different effects on different manufacturing sectors: restraining the development of labor-intensive industries and reducing their employment, and benefiting the development of high-tech manufacturing industry and thus the expansion of employment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F427;F249.27;F224

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