本文選題：人民幣匯率 + 對(duì)外升值　； 參考：《內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：自從2005年7月匯率改革以來(lái),我國(guó)出現(xiàn)了兩個(gè)突出的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象：一是人民幣匯率穩(wěn)中有升,尤其是對(duì)美元一直持續(xù)保持小幅的升值,截止到2013年3月,已經(jīng)累計(jì)升值30%；二是國(guó)內(nèi)的物價(jià)水平從結(jié)構(gòu)性上漲演變?yōu)槿娉掷m(xù)上漲,也就是人民幣在國(guó)內(nèi)的購(gòu)買力越來(lái)越低。這個(gè)看似有悖經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律的現(xiàn)象引起了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的普遍關(guān)注。 面對(duì)我國(guó)這樣一種特殊的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象,本文在綜合了以往國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,首先對(duì)影響通貨膨脹和人民幣升值的各個(gè)因素進(jìn)行理論分析,然后運(yùn)用ADL模型對(duì)影響人民幣匯率的因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析和檢驗(yàn),運(yùn)用(?)AR模型對(duì)影響通貨膨脹的各個(gè)因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析和檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)兩者的理論分析和實(shí)證分析結(jié)論雖然不完全吻合,但是基本相同：在影響通貨膨脹的因素當(dāng)中,通貨膨脹預(yù)期和外匯儲(chǔ)備與其相關(guān)性最大；在影響人民幣匯率的因素當(dāng)中,外匯儲(chǔ)備與貨幣發(fā)行量與人民幣匯率的相關(guān)性最強(qiáng)。因此人民幣對(duì)外升值對(duì)內(nèi)貶值的原因一是內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡,二是國(guó)際政治壓力與人民幣國(guó)際化的矛盾。就國(guó)內(nèi)外現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境而言,人民幣對(duì)外升值是主導(dǎo)性的,對(duì)內(nèi)貶值是派生性的,人民幣幣值國(guó)內(nèi)外存在差異這一背離經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律的現(xiàn)象將隨著結(jié)售匯制度退出歷史舞臺(tái)而逐漸消失。
[Abstract]:Since the exchange rate reform in July 2005, there have been two prominent economic phenomena in China: first, the RMB exchange rate has risen steadily, especially against the US dollar, which has maintained a small appreciation until March 2013. There has been a cumulative appreciation of 30%; second, the domestic price level has evolved from a structural rise to an overall sustained rise, meaning that the purchasing power of the RMB is getting lower and lower at home. This phenomenon, which seems to be contrary to the economic law, has aroused the widespread concern of scholars at home and abroad. In the face of such a special economic phenomenon in China, this paper, on the basis of synthesizing the previous research results of scholars at home and abroad, firstly makes a theoretical analysis of the factors affecting inflation and RMB appreciation. Then the ADL model is used to analyze and test the factors influencing RMB exchange rate, and the AR model is used to analyze and test the factors that affect inflation. It is found that although the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the two are not completely consistent, they are basically the same: among the factors that affect inflation, inflation expectations and foreign exchange reserves are the most relevant; among the factors that affect the exchange rate of RMB, The correlation between foreign exchange reserves and currency issuance and RMB exchange rate is the strongest. Therefore, the internal and external economic imbalance and the contradiction between the international political pressure and the internationalization of RMB are the main causes of RMB's external appreciation and devaluation. In terms of the real economic environment at home and abroad, the external appreciation of the RMB is dominant, and the internal devaluation is derivative. The phenomenon that there are differences in the value of RMB at home and abroad, which deviates from the economic law, will disappear with the withdrawal from the historical stage of the system of foreign exchange settlement and sale.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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