發(fā)布時間：2018-04-14 06:00

  本文選題：貨幣政策 + 非對稱性��； 參考：《湘潭大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)效應作為貨幣政策非對稱效應的重要議題，一直是理論界及宏觀決策者研究和關注的熱點問題。產(chǎn)業(yè)結構是否合理，直接關系到國民經(jīng)濟能否持續(xù)、健康、協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。傳統(tǒng)的理論研究大多是對貨幣政策的進行總量效應分析，并且假設貨幣政策對整個經(jīng)濟影響一致，或在產(chǎn)業(yè)間的效應均衡。然而，事實上這種假設并不完全成立。近年來，貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對稱效應現(xiàn)象也逐漸被證實，但是由于缺乏相應的實證檢驗，對其產(chǎn)生機制及決定因素并未形成統(tǒng)一的認識，因此，深入研究貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對稱效應的形成機制，為更好的發(fā)揮貨幣政策調(diào)節(jié)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構功能，及對貨幣政策的制定都具有十分重要的理論及現(xiàn)實意義。 以貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對稱效應存在的理論為基礎，深入探討這種非對稱效應存在的理論根源——產(chǎn)業(yè)間的資本流動，從而試圖打開實證分析的理論黑箱。通過對貨幣政策的產(chǎn)業(yè)傳導、資本在產(chǎn)業(yè)間流動、產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變化的途徑機制進行理論分析，并借鑒Jefrey WurgIer資本配置模型，結合我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構特征，將貨幣供應量、產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值、產(chǎn)業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資、產(chǎn)業(yè)景氣指數(shù)指標納入，構建產(chǎn)業(yè)資本配置效率模型，并以第一、二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)為研究對象，采用2001-2010年的季度數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析。實證分析結果表明：在統(tǒng)一貨幣政策調(diào)控下，由于資本逐利性、避險性、收益性特征，產(chǎn)業(yè)資本會受產(chǎn)業(yè)利潤率、產(chǎn)業(yè)景氣指數(shù)、貨幣供應量等影響而在產(chǎn)業(yè)間相互配置，從而使產(chǎn)業(yè)因資本要素投入規(guī)模不同而發(fā)展不均，，即貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對稱效應。其中第二產(chǎn)業(yè)受貨幣政策影響最強烈，其次是第三產(chǎn)業(yè)，第一產(chǎn)業(yè)受貨幣政策反應最遲鈍。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處主要有兩點：一是研究視角上的創(chuàng)新。當前國內(nèi)外學術界將貨幣政策和產(chǎn)業(yè)結構結合，并以總量調(diào)整和結構調(diào)整結合的研究并不多，尤其從宏觀視角和中觀層面上，貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對稱效應的研究相對較少，其中分析其形成原因和機制的探討則更加有限。本文從資本流動這一角度來揭示貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對稱效應產(chǎn)業(yè)的根源，具有一定的創(chuàng)新性。二是模型上的創(chuàng)新。在Jeffrey Wurgler的資本配置效率模型的基礎上，結合我國貨幣政策與產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的實際情況，將貨幣供應量增長率、行業(yè)景氣指數(shù)、產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值等相關變量引入模型進行實證分析，以此說明資本流動致使貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對稱效應的成因機理，具有一定的創(chuàng)新價值。
[Abstract]:As an important topic of asymmetric effect of monetary policy, the industrial effect of monetary policy has always been a hot topic in the field of theory and macroscopical decision makers.Whether the industrial structure is reasonable or not is directly related to the sustainable, healthy and coordinated development of the national economy.The traditional theoretical research is mostly to analyze the aggregate effect of monetary policy, and assume that monetary policy has a consistent effect on the whole economy, or the effect equilibrium between industries.In fact, however, this assumption is not entirely true.In recent years, the phenomenon of asymmetric effect of monetary policy industry has been gradually proved, but due to the lack of corresponding empirical test, there is no unified understanding of its mechanism and determinants.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the formation mechanism of asymmetric effect of monetary policy industry in order to better play the function of adjusting industrial structure of monetary policy and to formulate monetary policy.Based on the theory of the existence of asymmetric effect in monetary policy industry, this paper probes into the theoretical root of the existence of asymmetric effect, the capital flow between industries, and tries to open the theoretical black box of empirical analysis.Based on the theoretical analysis of the industrial transmission of monetary policy, the capital flow among industries and the mechanism of industrial structure change, and drawing lessons from the Jefrey WurgIer capital allocation model, combining the characteristics of China's industrial structure, the money supply and industrial added value are put forward.Industrial fixed asset investment and industrial prosperity index are included to construct the industrial capital allocation efficiency model. The first, second and third industries are taken as the research object, and the quarterly data from 2001-2010 are used to carry on the empirical analysis.The results of empirical analysis show that under the unified monetary policy regulation, industrial capital will be allocated to each other among industries because of the characteristics of profit driven, risk aversion and profitability, and industrial capital will be affected by industrial profit margin, industrial prosperity index, money supply and so on.Therefore, the industry is unevenly developed because of the different scale of capital input, that is, the asymmetric effect of monetary policy industry.The second industry is most strongly influenced by monetary policy, followed by the tertiary industry, and the first industry is the least responsive to monetary policy.The innovation of this paper has two main points: one is the innovation from the perspective of research.At present, there are few researches on the combination of monetary policy and industrial structure, and the combination of aggregate adjustment and structural adjustment, especially from the macro perspective and the meso level, the research on asymmetric effect of monetary policy industry is relatively few.Among them, the analysis of the causes and mechanism of its formation is more limited.This paper reveals the origin of asymmetric effect industry of monetary policy industry from the angle of capital flow.Second, the innovation on the model.On the basis of the capital allocation efficiency model of Jeffrey Wurgler and the actual situation of monetary policy and industry development in China, the paper introduces the relevant variables, such as money supply growth rate, industry boom index and industry added value, into the model for empirical analysis.It is of great value to explain the mechanism of asymmetric effect of monetary policy industry caused by capital flow.
【學位授予單位】：湘潭大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F124;F822.0

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