本文選題：外匯儲(chǔ)備　切入點(diǎn)：Agarwal模型　出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：作為一國(guó)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)體系的重要部分，外匯儲(chǔ)備也是一國(guó)國(guó)際貨幣體系的核心部分，是一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的重要標(biāo)志之一，衡量一國(guó)綜合實(shí)力的重要指標(biāo)之一。外匯儲(chǔ)備一直是各國(guó)政府工作中的重點(diǎn)，也是政府部門(mén)和學(xué)術(shù)界重點(diǎn)研究對(duì)象。因?yàn)橥鈪R儲(chǔ)備是否充足直接影響我國(guó)的國(guó)際信譽(yù)及金融安全。但是，我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模自外匯體制改革后一直保持高增長(zhǎng)的態(tài)勢(shì)，到2011年底達(dá)到31811.48億美元。外匯儲(chǔ)備是把雙刃劍，規(guī)模過(guò)小無(wú)法保證經(jīng)濟(jì)安全，規(guī)模過(guò)大會(huì)阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。所以，保持外匯儲(chǔ)備適度規(guī)模關(guān)系一個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)安全。 文章對(duì)成本收益法原始的Agarwal模型進(jìn)行修正，利用修正的Agarwal模型對(duì)我國(guó)2000-2011年間的外匯儲(chǔ)備進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，計(jì)算出我國(guó)近十二年的外匯儲(chǔ)備適度規(guī)模，結(jié)合實(shí)際比較分析后得出結(jié)論：我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備在2003年前處于不足狀態(tài)，但是逐漸在縮小與適度規(guī)模之間的差值，向適度規(guī)模靠近；從2004年開(kāi)始處于嚴(yán)重過(guò)剩狀態(tài)，且這種過(guò)剩程度不斷在攀升，從2007年開(kāi)始過(guò)剩程度已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了100%，并且預(yù)計(jì)這種嚴(yán)重過(guò)剩狀態(tài)會(huì)持續(xù)下去。 文章從政府和民間角度對(duì)我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模管理進(jìn)行了分析，提出了幾點(diǎn)建議：1、要加強(qiáng)監(jiān)控資本的流入尤其是短期資本，，增加歐元和日元等資產(chǎn)在外匯儲(chǔ)備中的比重，完善我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備的幣種結(jié)構(gòu)，確保多元化；2、完善人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制改革和優(yōu)化外匯管理機(jī)制，完善統(tǒng)計(jì)系統(tǒng)，防止“熱錢(qián)”流入；3、積極拓寬外匯儲(chǔ)備的投資渠道，減少外匯儲(chǔ)備存儲(chǔ)的機(jī)會(huì)成本；4、完善我國(guó)金融法律體系，優(yōu)化對(duì)外直接投資，盡快制定專(zhuān)門(mén)的《外匯儲(chǔ)備管理法》，建立更加有效的安全預(yù)警機(jī)制；5、適度放松資本管制，平衡外匯流入，實(shí)現(xiàn)藏匯于民。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，民間用匯需求增加。國(guó)家應(yīng)制定相關(guān)法律政策，適當(dāng)放寬持有與使用外匯的政策限制，鼓勵(lì)民間持有外匯，逐步滿(mǎn)足民間用匯需求，也能減輕外匯儲(chǔ)備超長(zhǎng)增長(zhǎng)的負(fù)擔(dān)。
[Abstract]:As an important part of a country's international economic system, foreign exchange reserves are also the core part of an international monetary system, one of the important symbols of a country's economic strength and one of the important indicators to measure a country's comprehensive strength.Foreign exchange reserve has been the focus of government work, and also the key research object of government and academia.Because whether the foreign exchange reserve is sufficient or not directly affects our country's international prestige and the financial security.However, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves has maintained a high growth trend since the reform of the foreign exchange system, reaching $3.181148 trillion by the end of 2011.Foreign exchange reserve is a double-edged sword, too small to ensure economic security, too large to hinder economic development, inhibit economic growth.Therefore, maintaining the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves is related to the economic security of a country.In this paper, the original Agarwal model of cost-income approach is revised, and the empirical analysis of China's foreign exchange reserves from 2000 to 2011 is carried out by using the modified Agarwal model, and the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves in recent 12 years is calculated.The conclusion is that China's foreign exchange reserves were in a state of insufficiency before 2003, but the difference between reducing and moderate scale gradually approached to a moderate scale, and since 2004, China's foreign exchange reserves have been in a serious surplus state.And the glut is rising, well over 100 since 2007, and is expected to continue.This paper analyzes the scale management of China's foreign exchange reserves from the angle of government and private sector, and puts forward several suggestions: to strengthen the monitoring of capital inflows, especially short-term capital, and to increase the proportion of assets such as euro and yen in foreign exchange reserves.To improve the currency structure of China's foreign exchange reserves, to ensure diversification, to perfect the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, to reform and optimize the foreign exchange management mechanism, to perfect the statistical system, to prevent "hot money" from flowing into China, and to actively broaden the investment channels for foreign exchange reserves.To reduce the opportunity cost of storing foreign exchange reserves; to improve our financial legal system; to optimize foreign direct investment; to formulate a special Foreign Exchange Reserve Management Law as soon as possible; to establish a more effective security early warning mechanism; and to relax capital controls moderately.Balance the inflow of foreign exchange and realize the transfer of foreign exchange to the people.With economic development, private exchange demand increased.The state should formulate relevant legal policies, appropriately relax the policy restrictions on the holding and use of foreign exchange, encourage the private sector to hold foreign exchange, gradually meet the demand for private exchange exchange, and reduce the burden of excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6;F224

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