本文選題：匯率波動(dòng)　切入點(diǎn)：進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易　出處：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：匯率通過影響一國的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易等活動(dòng),對(duì)一國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生多方面影響。我國實(shí)行有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度以來,人民幣對(duì)主要世界貨幣的匯率都出現(xiàn)了很大的波動(dòng),尤其是對(duì)美元的長期升值態(tài)勢引起了人們對(duì)于匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易影響問題的極度關(guān)注。入世以來,中國已成為了世界上的第一和第二大出口、進(jìn)口國,引人注目的原材料限制出口案和消費(fèi)品進(jìn)口熱潮無不隱含著進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易中的結(jié)構(gòu)性問題。區(qū)分生產(chǎn)資料和最終消費(fèi)品角度的匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易影響的路徑探索提供給了我們貼近現(xiàn)實(shí)熱點(diǎn)問題的一種研究思路,對(duì)于解開這些隱含著的結(jié)構(gòu)性問題很有幫助,也有助于了解匯率波動(dòng)在不同貿(mào)易形式中起到的作用。實(shí)際有效匯率考慮到了國與國之間的貿(mào)易往來比重和通貨膨脹引起的價(jià)格調(diào)整。在人民幣對(duì)美元強(qiáng)勢升值和CPI全民關(guān)注的背景下考察實(shí)際有效匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)于進(jìn)出口的影響能夠更真切地觀察到匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)于進(jìn)出口行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整情況。 天津市擁有北方最大的綜合性港口,進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易發(fā)達(dá)。2011年進(jìn)出口總額更是突破千億美元,貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)也發(fā)生了很大變化。研究實(shí)際有效匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)天津進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的影響具有深刻的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文采取定性與定量相結(jié)合的方法,先探究了匯率波動(dòng)影響進(jìn)出口的途徑。之后對(duì)匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)天津市進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的影響進(jìn)行了總量分析和分不同貿(mào)易形式的分類分析。得出的結(jié)論是,創(chuàng)新因素可以改變匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)于進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易影響的性質(zhì),可看做是匯率傳導(dǎo)的調(diào)劑閥。實(shí)際有效匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)天津市進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易有比較明顯的影響。1985年至今,實(shí)際有效匯率在各時(shí)段對(duì)于進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易有不同的影響�？傮w上,實(shí)際有效匯率每變動(dòng)1%,天津市的進(jìn)出口總額將會(huì)同向變動(dòng)約0.52%。而匯率波動(dòng)的幅度增加1%,天津市的進(jìn)出口總額的波動(dòng)幅度就會(huì)增加約3.12%。另外,匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)于天津市一般貿(mào)易形式進(jìn)出口的影響最大,對(duì)來料加工貿(mào)易的影響最小。最后,文章還提出了重視研發(fā),增強(qiáng)創(chuàng)新能力；優(yōu)化貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)；發(fā)展培植本市進(jìn)出口企業(yè)；開辟國外市場等建議。
[Abstract]:The exchange rate affects a country's economy in many ways by influencing the import and export trade of a country. Since China has implemented a managed floating exchange rate system, the exchange rate of the RMB against the major world currencies has fluctuated greatly. In particular, the trend of long-term appreciation against the US dollar has aroused people's extreme concern about the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on import and export trade. Since China entered the WTO, China has become the world's first and second largest exporter and importer. The structural problems in import and export trade are implied in the conspicuous export restriction cases of raw materials and the import boom of consumer goods. A path to distinguish the impact of Exchange rate fluctuations on Import and Export Trade from the Angle of means of production and final Consumer goods. So it provides us with a kind of research thinking that is close to the hot issues in reality. To help solve these implicit structural problems, It also helps to understand the role of exchange rate fluctuations in different forms of trade. The real effective exchange rate takes into account the proportion of trade between countries and price adjustments caused by inflation. Under the background of CPI, we can observe the effect of the real effective exchange rate change on the import and export more truthfully to the adjustment of the structure of the import and export industry by the exchange rate fluctuation. Tianjin has the largest comprehensive port in the north, with developed import and export trade. In 2011, the total import and export volume exceeded 100 billion US dollars. Great changes have taken place in the structure of trade, and it is of great practical significance to study the effect of the fluctuation of actual effective exchange rate on Tianjin's import and export trade. In this paper, qualitative and quantitative methods are adopted. This paper first explores the ways that exchange rate fluctuation affects import and export. Then, it analyzes the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on Tianjin's import and export trade and classifies it into different trade forms. The conclusion is that the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on Tianjin's import and export trade is as follows:. The innovative factors can change the nature of exchange rate fluctuation on import and export trade, and can be regarded as the adjustment valve of exchange rate conduction. The real effective exchange rate fluctuation has obvious influence on Tianjin import and export trade. From 1985 to present, The real effective exchange rate has different effects on import and export trade in different periods of time. For each change in the real effective exchange rate, the total volume of imports and exports of Tianjin will change in the same direction about 0.52.And the range of exchange rate fluctuations will increase by 1, and the fluctuation of the total volume of imports and exports of Tianjin will increase by about 3.12 percent. In addition, Exchange rate fluctuations have the greatest impact on the import and export of Tianjin's general form of trade, and the least on the processing trade of raw materials. Finally, the article also puts forward to pay attention to R & D, enhance the ability of innovation, optimize the trade structure, develop and cultivate the import and export enterprises in this city. Suggestions for opening up foreign markets.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.6;F224

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