發(fā)布時間：2018-03-25 04:18

  本文選題：熱錢流動　切入點：人民幣升值預(yù)期　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展勢頭強勁，人民幣升值預(yù)期增加，大量的熱錢被其吸引，通過各種渠道進入我國進行套利，嚴重影響了我國的經(jīng)濟增長。 自從2007年美國次貸危機爆發(fā)之后，美國為了應(yīng)對危機對國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟的影響，先后幾次實行了量化寬松政策，加大了貨幣的供給，這又使得國際上熱錢數(shù)量大大增加，而次貸危機后，以我國為代表的新興市場國家經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇迅速，市場前景一片大好，這些熱錢大量涌入以我國為代表的新興市場國家，這其中又以流入我國的為最。 2009年底，迪拜主權(quán)債務(wù)危機爆發(fā)，這使得之前存在于中東地區(qū)的熱錢大量外逃，轉(zhuǎn)而進入新興市場國家，由于我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展迅速，這些熱錢被大量吸引進入我國。 隨著歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機的持續(xù)惡化，國際金融市場大幅動蕩，到2011年下半年，我國人民幣匯率變化趨勢和預(yù)期也開始分化，自9月底開始，人民幣匯率結(jié)束了持續(xù)兩年多的單邊升值預(yù)期，在海外無本金交割遠期外匯市場上，人民幣匯率首次出現(xiàn)了貶值的預(yù)期，出于避險動機，我國海外人民幣遭到拋售，，市場流動性壓力大增，我國的外匯占款也出現(xiàn)了連續(xù)3個月的負增長，這些跡象都表明熱錢在逃離我國，我國熱錢流動的波動性增加。 本文就是在這種背景下研究進入我國變化莫測的熱錢所造成的影響。熱錢大量充斥在我國的房地產(chǎn)，股票市場上，造成了經(jīng)濟的不穩(wěn)定，嚴重影響著我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展，而熱錢流動方向的逆轉(zhuǎn)更是引發(fā)金融危機的導(dǎo)火線，對熱錢進行有效監(jiān)管是我國現(xiàn)階段必須面對和解決的難題。 因此，本文通過對熱錢流動的來源、渠道、規(guī)模和流入我國原因進行的分析，掌握了熱錢進出我國的基本情況；然后對熱錢如何影響我國經(jīng)濟金融體系進行了詳細研究；最后通過對熱錢流動利益相關(guān)三方的利益博弈分析，得出了我國應(yīng)對熱錢流動的思路，就我國應(yīng)如何監(jiān)管熱錢提出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economic development momentum is strong, RMB appreciation is expected to increase, a large number of hot money is attracted, through various channels to arbitrage into our country, seriously affected the economic growth of our country. Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, in order to cope with the impact of the crisis on the domestic economy, the United States has successively implemented quantitative easing policies and increased the supply of money, which has greatly increased the amount of hot money in the international community. After the subprime mortgage crisis, the emerging market countries, represented by our country, are recovering rapidly, and the market prospect is very good. These hot money poured into the emerging market countries represented by our country, among which, the one that flows into our country is the most. At the end of 2009, Dubai's sovereign debt crisis broke out, prompting hot money that had previously existed in the Middle East to flee to emerging markets, which had been lured into the country by the country's rapid economic growth. With the continuous deterioration of the European sovereign debt crisis and the sharp turbulence in the international financial market, by the second half of 2011, the trend and expectations of the RMB exchange rate in China have also begun to diverge, beginning at the end of September. The RMB exchange rate ended the expectation of unilateral appreciation that lasted for more than two years. In the overseas non-deliverable forward foreign exchange market, the RMB exchange rate was expected to depreciate for the first time. Out of risk aversion, China's overseas RMB was sold off. The liquidity pressure in the market has increased greatly, and the foreign exchange in China has increased for three months in a row. These indications indicate that hot money is escaping from China, and the volatility of hot money flows in China is increasing. It is against this background that this paper studies the impact of the unpredictable hot money that has entered our country. Hot money is flooded in the real estate and stock market of our country, causing economic instability and seriously affecting the development of our country's economy. The reversal of hot money flow is the trigger of the financial crisis. The effective supervision of hot money is a difficult problem that our country must face and solve at the present stage. Therefore, through the analysis of the source, channel, scale and reason of hot money flowing into our country, this paper grasps the basic situation of hot money in and out of our country, and then makes a detailed study on how hot money affects our country's economic and financial system. Finally, through the benefit game analysis of the interest related to the hot money flow, the thinking of how to deal with the hot money flow in our country is obtained, and the policy suggestions on how to supervise the hot money in our country are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

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本文編號：1661512