發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-13 22:28

  本文選題：資本賬戶開放　切入點(diǎn)：金融安全　出處：《寧波大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：資本賬戶開放一直以來都是各國謹(jǐn)慎對待和關(guān)注的金融問題之一。自九十年代以來，全球爆發(fā)了很多次大規(guī)模的金融危機(jī)，令人們傾向于將金融的不安全與資本賬戶開放相掛鉤。因此，在資本賬戶開放進(jìn)程中，對金融安全的維護(hù)成為各國經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域?qū)W術(shù)界及實(shí)務(wù)界關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)內(nèi)容。作為一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長的國家，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中扮演著舉足輕重的角色，其安全與否在一定程度上牽動著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的神經(jīng)，而經(jīng)濟(jì)安全中的核心問題就是金融安全。因?yàn)樵诂F(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)體系中，金融占據(jù)著核心關(guān)鍵的位置，金融安全直接影響到國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)安全。隨著金融國際化浪潮席卷全球，為適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，我國資本賬戶的開放已經(jīng)被提上日程，但在這個(gè)過程中，資本賬戶的開放程度是如何影響我國金融安全水平的，影響程度又到底有多大？這些問題都是亟待解決的，而且研究意義重大。 本文首先在前人理論和研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，明確了資本賬戶開放以及金融安全的定義和內(nèi)涵。關(guān)于資本賬戶開放對金融安全的影響是利還是弊，國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的看法不一，鑒于研究其不利結(jié)果更具現(xiàn)實(shí)意義，本文從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)安全、銀行安全、證券市場安全、對外安全以及貨幣安全五個(gè)方面詳細(xì)探討了資本賬戶開放給我國金融安全帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)效應(yīng)。 但理論在分析資本賬戶開放對我國金融安全的影響時(shí)可能還不夠充分，因此，本文采用了實(shí)證分析的方法進(jìn)行了深入的研究。實(shí)證過程中，在測度資本賬戶開放時(shí)我們選取的是流量指標(biāo)。但是對金融安全的測度卻沒有權(quán)威的定論，因此本文構(gòu)建了金融安全指標(biāo)體系，在構(gòu)權(quán)過程中選用的方法是層次分析法和熵權(quán)法的結(jié)合。為研究資本賬戶開放度和金融安全度之間的數(shù)量關(guān)系，本文構(gòu)建了協(xié)整模型以及誤差修正模型，結(jié)果表明長期內(nèi)我國資本賬戶開放和金融安全呈現(xiàn)正相關(guān)關(guān)系，而短期內(nèi)當(dāng)期的資本賬戶開放度對金融安全度影響不顯著。接下來，在對兩個(gè)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)，雖然兩指標(biāo)正相關(guān)，但是在金融安全水平提高后，我國才選擇對資本賬戶的進(jìn)一步開放。 針對文章的理論和實(shí)證，本文在最后一部分先對資本賬戶開放的進(jìn)程進(jìn)行了回顧，然后對如何維護(hù)金融安全以應(yīng)對資本賬戶的開放提出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:The opening of the capital account has always been one of the financial problems that countries have been carefully treating and paying close attention to. Since 90s, there have been many large-scale financial crises around the world. There is a tendency to link financial insecurity to the opening of the capital account. The maintenance of financial security has become the focus of attention of the academic and practical circles in the economic field of various countries. As a country with rapid economic growth, our economy plays a pivotal role in the global economy. To a certain extent, its security affects the nerves of the world economy, and the core issue of economic security is financial security, because in the modern economic system, finance plays a key role. Financial security has a direct impact on national economic security. With the wave of financial internationalization sweeping the world, in order to adapt to the economic development, the opening of China's capital account has been put on the agenda, but in this process, How does the openness of capital account affect the level of financial security in China? These problems are urgent to be solved, and the research is of great significance. On the basis of previous theories and research results, this paper defines the definition and connotation of capital account opening and financial security. Scholars at home and abroad have different views on whether the impact of capital account opening on financial security is good or bad. In view of the more practical significance of studying its adverse results, this paper focuses on macroeconomic security, bank security, and securities market security. The paper discusses the risk effect of capital account opening on China's financial security from five aspects: external security and monetary security. However, the theory may not be sufficient in analyzing the impact of capital account opening on the financial security of our country. Therefore, this paper adopts the method of empirical analysis to conduct in-depth research. When we measure the opening of the capital account, we choose the flow index. However, there is no authoritative conclusion on the measurement of financial security, so this paper constructs the financial security index system. In order to study the quantitative relationship between capital account openness and financial security, a co-integration model and an error correction model are constructed. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the opening of capital account and financial security in the long run, but the opening degree of capital account in the current period has no significant effect on the degree of financial security in the short term. Although the two indicators are positively correlated, China chose to further open its capital account after the improvement of financial security level. In the last part of this paper, the author reviews the process of capital account opening, and then puts forward some policy suggestions on how to maintain the financial security to deal with the capital account opening.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F224;F832

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