本文選題：國際貨幣體系　切入點：內(nèi)外失衡　出處：《南開大學(xué)》2012年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來，中國經(jīng)濟已深度融入全球經(jīng)濟金融一體化，中國已經(jīng)成為國際貨幣金融體系等全球“游戲規(guī)則”的重要參與者，受這些“游戲規(guī)則”的影響與制約也越來越大。尤其在當(dāng)今美元本位制下，中國不但面臨巨大的國際收支失衡壓力，而且內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟嚴重扭曲。一方面中國對外長期巨額順差，積累了全球最多的外匯儲備，且隨著美元不斷貶值遭受了巨大的匯兌損失；另一方面國內(nèi)消費長期低迷、儲蓄“過剩”。與之極不對稱的是，當(dāng)今國際貨幣體系的中心國家美國，，卻長期國際收支巨額赤字，并依賴美元的國際貨幣地位向中國等外圍國家不斷舉債以支撐其國內(nèi)過度消費。美元本位制下這種脆弱的“游戲”模式，最終導(dǎo)致了美國次貸危機的爆發(fā)。危機發(fā)生后，部分政府和學(xué)者把中、美經(jīng)濟內(nèi)外失衡以及這次金融危機，歸咎于中國依賴于出口拉動的外向型經(jīng)濟增長方式以及中國居民的高儲蓄、低消費行為；而另外一些學(xué)者則從當(dāng)今國際貨幣體系的弊端，深入考察中、美以及全球經(jīng)濟失衡的根源，并寄希望于通過國際貨幣體系改革緩解失衡，呼吁提升人民幣在國際貨幣體系中的地位。 本文所關(guān)心的問題：第一，以主權(quán)信用貨幣作為儲備貨幣的國際貨幣體系，是否是當(dāng)今全球失衡的重要原因？該國際貨幣體系對全球失衡調(diào)整有何影響？第二，在美元本位制下，人民幣的非國際貨幣地位是否是導(dǎo)致過去幾十年中國經(jīng)濟內(nèi)外失衡的原因？若是，則隨著人民幣國際化程度不斷提高及人民幣的國際地位的上升，又會對中國經(jīng)濟的內(nèi)外失衡調(diào)整有何影響？第三，為了緩解中國經(jīng)濟內(nèi)外失衡及全球失衡，國際貨幣體系應(yīng)如何改革？中國的占優(yōu)策略是什么？ 為此，本文首先基于金融史實，分析從1880年以來國際貨幣體系演變表現(xiàn)出的不對稱特征以及與全球失衡之間的關(guān)系，并重點考察了現(xiàn)行國際貨幣體系的不對稱總體特征，以及在現(xiàn)行國際貨幣體系下中國經(jīng)濟內(nèi)外失衡的經(jīng)驗事實。 基于上述經(jīng)驗事實，本文先建立了基于國際收支貨幣分析法的理論分析框架，探討了一國主權(quán)信用貨幣作為國際貨幣、其它主權(quán)國家貨幣為外圍貨幣（非國際貨幣）的不對稱國際貨幣體系安排下，是否會導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟失衡；以及在這種不對稱的國際貨幣體系下，全球失衡調(diào)整能否通過匯率調(diào)整順利進行。研究表明，在以一國主權(quán)貨幣作為國際貨幣的不對稱國際貨幣體系安排下，全球經(jīng)濟失衡將無法避免；并且，匯率調(diào)整將不再有效，國際貨幣體系中心國家任何針對國際收支調(diào)整的政策選擇都將導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟的不穩(wěn)定，甚至誘發(fā)金融危機。 在進行上述一般規(guī)律探討的基礎(chǔ)上，本文基于考慮了現(xiàn)行國際貨幣體系不對稱因素的開放經(jīng)濟條件下的動態(tài)隨機一般均衡（DSGE）模型和新開放經(jīng)濟宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)（NOEM）模型，著重研究了在不對稱的國際貨幣體系下，人民幣的非國際貨幣地位、以及人民幣的國際地位上升（即人民幣的不斷國際化）對中國經(jīng)濟內(nèi)外失衡與調(diào)整的影響。結(jié)論表明：人民幣的非國際貨幣地位，是導(dǎo)致中國經(jīng)濟內(nèi)外失衡——國內(nèi)消費長期不足、儲蓄過高，國際收支長期順差、外匯儲備過度增長的重要原因；而人民幣國際地位不斷提升——人民幣國際化程度不斷提高，其它國家對人民幣的需求不斷增加，將有助于增加中國居民消費、減少過度儲蓄、平衡國際收支，改善中國經(jīng)濟內(nèi)外失衡狀況。 基于上述分析，本文又對國際貨幣體系改革方向、當(dāng)前中國可行的最優(yōu)政策選擇進行了研究，并得到了如下主要政策建議：建立美元、人民幣、歐元等為主要國際貨幣的多元國際貨幣體系，將是解決中國和世界經(jīng)濟內(nèi)外失衡相對可行的最優(yōu)方案；而對于中國而言，穩(wěn)健推進人民幣適度國際化、以及進行必要的制度建設(shè)，對于解決我國經(jīng)濟內(nèi)外失衡具有重要意義。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the economy has Chinese depth into the global economic and financial integration, has become an important participant in the international monetary and financial systems Chinese global "game rules", the "rules of the game" and restrictive influence is growing. Especially in today's dollars of this system, China not only face a huge imbalance of payments pressure moreover, internal economic distortions. On the one hand, Chinese foreign long-term accumulated a huge surplus, the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, and with the continuous depreciation of the dollar suffered huge foreign exchange losses; on the other hand, the domestic consumption of long-term slump, "excess" savings. With very asymmetric, National Center of the international monetary system of the United States however, the long-term balance of payments deficits, and rely on the currency to Chinese peripheral countries such as debt to support its continued excessive domestic consumer dollars. Standard of this fragile "game" mode, eventually led to the outbreak of the subprime loan crisis. After the crisis, the government and scholars, the economic imbalances and the financial crisis, due to the China rely on export led export-oriented economic growth mode and the high savings China residents, low consumption behavior; while some scholars from the disadvantages of current international monetary system, in-depth study, beauty and global economic imbalances in the roots, and hope that through the reform of the international monetary system to ease the imbalance, to upgrade the status of RMB in the international monetary system.
This paper concerns: first, the sovereign credit currency as a reserve currency of the international monetary system, whether it is an important reason for today's global imbalances in the international monetary system? What is the effect of adjustment of global imbalances? Second, under the dollar standard, the renminbi non international currency is the cause of the past few decades of economic China the internal and external imbalance? If so, then increase with the degree of internationalization of the RMB rising and the international status of the RMB, how it will affect the China economic imbalance adjustment? Third, in order to alleviate the Chinese economic imbalances and global imbalances, the international monetary system should be how to reform? What is the dominant strategy for Chinese?
Therefore, this paper based on the financial facts, from the analysis of the asymmetry of the evolution of the international monetary system since 1880 shows and global imbalances between, and focuses on the general characteristics of the asymmetry of the current international monetary system, as well as in the existing international monetary system under unbalanced Chinese internal and external economic facts.
The experience is based on the fact, this article first established a monetary approach to balance of payments based on the theoretical analysis framework, discusses the sovereign credit currency as an international currency, other sovereign currency for outer currency (non international currency) for asymmetric international monetary system, will lead to global economic imbalances; and in this asymmetric international the monetary system, the global imbalance adjustment can be carried out smoothly through the adjustment of the exchange rate. The results show that in a country's currency as international monetary asymmetry of the international monetary system, the global economic imbalance will not be avoided; and the exchange rate adjustment will no longer be valid, center of the International Monetary System for any country to the balance of payments policy choice will lead to the instability of the global economy, and even induce financial crisis.
Based on the general rules of study, based on the consideration of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium factors of the current international monetary system asymmetry under the open economy condition (DSGE) model and the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) model, focuses on the asymmetry of the international monetary system, non international currency status of RMB, rising and the international status of RMB (i.e. RMB internationalization) influence on the Chinese economic imbalances and adjustment. Conclusion: non international currency status of RMB, is the result of Chinese economic imbalances, domestic consumption is insufficient in the long term, high savings, long-term balance of payments surplus, an important reason for excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves and the international status of RMB; - constantly improve the degree of internationalization of the RMB rising demand for RMB in other countries continue to increase, will help increase To increase the consumption of Chinese residents, to reduce excessive savings, to balance the balance of payments and to improve the internal and external imbalance in China's economy.
Based on the above analysis, this paper on the reform direction of the international monetary system, the choice of China feasible optimal policy is studied, and obtained the following policy recommendations: the establishment of the RMB and Euro dollars, as the main international currency diversified international monetary system, will be China and resolve internal and external imbalances in the world economy is relatively feasible optimal solution; for China, steadily push forward the RMB internationalization, and the necessary system construction, to solve China's economic imbalances and has important significance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南開大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F821;F224

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