本文關(guān)鍵詞： 證券分析師 盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性 公司因素　出處：《華中科技大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：證券分析師(Securities Analyst)是指服務(wù)于機(jī)構(gòu)以及個(gè)人投資者，向其提供投資分析意見，并指導(dǎo)其投資行為的專業(yè)人士。由于證券市場的投資者受專業(yè)知識(shí)以及分析水平的限制，，無法對(duì)上市公司的信息進(jìn)行有針對(duì)性地搜集，并進(jìn)行全面地分析，證券分析師的出現(xiàn)填補(bǔ)了這一空白。證券分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)在一定程度上為投資者進(jìn)行有效投資提供了指導(dǎo)作用。因此研究證券分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性及其影響因素對(duì)于提高證券市場效率有著非常重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文在總結(jié)國內(nèi)外學(xué)者研究的基礎(chǔ)上，以2010-2011年被證券分析師關(guān)注的創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司為研究樣本，利用多元線性回歸模型，從公司基本特征、公司財(cái)務(wù)特征、公司治理結(jié)構(gòu)、公司信息披露狀況這幾個(gè)公司因素出發(fā)，研究公司因素對(duì)于分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)： （1）將證券分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)誤差分成“具有較高的可靠性”、“一定的準(zhǔn)確性”、“發(fā)生了重大的預(yù)測(cè)誤差”這三種狀態(tài)進(jìn)行研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，前兩種狀態(tài)的樣本量所占比重接近60%，表明證券分析師對(duì)于創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司盈利預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性相對(duì)較高。將證券分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)誤差分成大于零和小于零的兩組進(jìn)行研究，結(jié)果表明盈利預(yù)測(cè)誤差大于零的樣本所占比重較高，說明證券分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)呈樂觀的正向偏差。 （2）本文將公司因素分為公司基本特征、公司財(cái)務(wù)特征、公司治理結(jié)構(gòu)以及信息披露質(zhì)量四個(gè)方面進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，研究結(jié)果表明，上市公司的多元化程度、無形資產(chǎn)占比與盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性負(fù)相關(guān)；上市公司營利的可預(yù)測(cè)性、發(fā)展能力、信息披露質(zhì)量與盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性正相關(guān)。 （3）本文將盈利預(yù)測(cè)誤差分為樂觀的正向偏差與悲觀的負(fù)向偏差兩組進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，研究結(jié)果表明，上市公司的多元化程度、無形資產(chǎn)占比、營利的可預(yù)測(cè)性、發(fā)展能力、信息披露質(zhì)量這幾個(gè)因素影響證券分析師預(yù)測(cè)的正向偏差；無形資產(chǎn)占比、盈余波動(dòng)性、凈利潤增長率、機(jī)構(gòu)持股比例影響證券分析師預(yù)測(cè)的負(fù)向偏差。
[Abstract]:Securities analyst refers to serving both institutional and individual investors and providing them with investment analysis advice. Because the investors in the securities market are restricted by their professional knowledge and analysis level, they can not collect the information of listed companies in a targeted way and make a comprehensive analysis. The emergence of securities analysts fills this gap. To a certain extent, the earnings forecast of securities analysts provides guidance for investors to invest effectively. Therefore, the accuracy and impact of earnings forecasts of securities analysts are studied. Factors to improve the efficiency of the securities market has a very important practical significance. On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign scholars' research, this paper takes the listed companies listed on the gem, which has been concerned by the securities analysts in 2010-2011, as the research sample and uses the multiple linear regression model to analyze the basic characteristics of the companies. Based on corporate financial characteristics, corporate governance structure and corporate information disclosure, this paper studies the impact of corporate factors on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. 1) dividing the profit forecast error of securities analyst into three kinds of states: "having high reliability", "certain accuracy" and "significant prediction error". The sample size of the first two states is close to 60%. It shows that the accuracy of earnings forecast of gem listed companies is relatively high. The error of earnings forecast of securities analysts is divided into two groups: greater than zero and less than zero. The results show that the proportion of the sample whose error of earnings forecast is greater than zero is higher, which indicates that the positive deviation of earnings forecast of securities analysts is optimistic. In this paper, the company factors are divided into four aspects: corporate basic characteristics, corporate financial characteristics, corporate governance structure and the quality of information disclosure. The research results show that the degree of diversification of listed companies. The proportion of intangible assets is negatively correlated with the accuracy of earnings forecast; The predictability of profit, the ability of development and the quality of information disclosure are positively related to the accuracy of profit prediction. This paper divides the profit forecast error into two groups: optimistic positive deviation and pessimistic negative deviation. The results show that the degree of diversification of listed companies, the proportion of intangible assets. The predictability of profit, the ability of development and the quality of information disclosure affect the positive deviation of the forecast of securities analysts; The share of intangible assets, earnings volatility, net profit growth and institutional shareholdings affect the negative bias of equity analysts' forecasts.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

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