本文關(guān)鍵詞：資本項目下人民幣可兌換風險評估與防范策略　出處：《湖南大學》2012年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人民幣可兌換 資本項目 匯率風險 金融危機 風險控制

【摘要】：人民幣完全可兌換無疑是中國未來金融改革的一個重要戰(zhàn)略目標，也是長期以來的一個既定目標。早在1993年，黨的十四屆三中全會通過的《中共中央關(guān)于建立社會主義市場經(jīng)濟體制若干問題的決定》就提出“逐步使人民幣成為可兌換貨幣”；2005年，黨的十六屆五中全會通過的“十一五規(guī)劃”再次提出“逐步實現(xiàn)人民幣資本項目可兌換”；2008年，國務院修訂通過的《中華人民共和國外匯管理條例》為未來進一步改革明確了方向——繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步推進資本項目開放，實現(xiàn)人民幣完全可兌換。在具體政策層面，自2002年特別是2005年7月匯改以來，資本項目開放進程重新提速。根據(jù)國家外匯管理局的統(tǒng)計，自2002年至2008年，調(diào)整涉及資本項目外匯管理的法規(guī)共有57個，其中涉及管制程度加強的17個，放松的40個。經(jīng)過最近一段時間的改革，較多限制和嚴格管制的項目越來越少，中國嚴格的資本管制時代已經(jīng)結(jié)束，較為開放的格局初步形成。 與改革的漸進性所呈現(xiàn)的難易程度相一致，剩下的資本項目開放的難度和風險也在不斷提高，項目的關(guān)聯(lián)性和影響程度遠大于目前已經(jīng)開放的類別，未來實現(xiàn)資本項目完全可兌換進程是否平穩(wěn)還存在相當?shù)牟淮_定性。開放資本項目會有多大風險？什么樣的開放策略才能將風險降至最低？如何才能有效控制甚至消除這些風險？回答這三個問題對進一步加速推進資本項目自由化的中國而言，重要性是不言而喻的。 本文先從資本項目下貨幣可兌換的必然性入題，明確研究的現(xiàn)實性和戰(zhàn)略性，闡釋研究的背景和意義；然后通過國別經(jīng)驗和實證研究，對資本項目下貨幣可兌換的風險展開全面分析，，梳理資本項目開放的各種風險以及它們形成的原因，并對資本項目可兌換與金融危機的關(guān)系進行歷史回顧性探討；再次具體從最小的資本項目分類出發(fā)探討最優(yōu)的開放策略和順序，以及相應的風險控制措施，以提高理論對實踐的指導能力；最后作為風險控制的根本手段，研究資本項目下貨幣可兌換進程中的風險監(jiān)測和危機應急機制建設。 在實證研究部分，本文首先以一個“可兌換促進經(jīng)濟增長”的計量回歸模型從側(cè)面論證資本項目下貨幣可兌換的必然性；然后利用一個存在“風險轉(zhuǎn)移”、“信貸不確定”的數(shù)理模型，論證資本項目下貨幣可兌換可能通過信貸可得性增加風險的機制；最后在風險預警實證部分，以三個指標分析法模型評估中國金融安全的動態(tài)變化，分析資本項目下貨幣可兌換對金融安全的實際影響效果，同時又以狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)換模型對中國金融安全中期預測的可行性進行分析。 本文認為，人民幣完全可兌換是隨著經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展必然的演進目標，其中伴隨著風險甚至可能導致危機的產(chǎn)生，也正因為如此，辨識風險來源，有計劃地采取適當可兌換順序、妥善構(gòu)架嚴格的開放風險應對措施，建立全面的風險監(jiān)測體系和危機應急機制才能有效控制風險，保證可兌換的順利推進，并最終實現(xiàn)國民經(jīng)濟的福利最大化。
[Abstract]:Full convertibility of the renminbi is undoubtedly an important strategic goal Chinese future financial reform, has long been a goal. In early 1993, the Party adopted in the third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee < CPC Central Committee on some issues concerning the establishment of the socialist market economy "put forward" decided to gradually make the RMB became convertible in 2005 the fifth Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee, the party "; through the" 11th Five-Year plan "put forward again" gradually realize the convertibility of RMB capital account "; in 2008, the State Council revised the" People's Republic of China foreign exchange management regulations > clear direction - continue to steadily promote the opening of the capital projects for further reform in the future, full convertibility of RMB. In the specific policy level since 2002, especially since the exchange rate reform in July 2005, the process of capital account opening to speed. According to the State Administration of foreign exchange The Bureau of statistics, from 2002 to 2008, the adjustment of the management of foreign exchange capital account regulations involving a total of 57, which involves the control degree of strengthening of the 17, 40 to relax. After the reform in recent days, many restrictions and strict control of the project is less and less, Chinese strict capital control era has ended, the more open the pattern shape.
Consistent with the progressive degree of difficulty of the reform, the rest of the capital account opening difficulty and risk is also rising, relevance and influence of the project is far greater than the currently open category, the future to achieve full convertibility of the capital account process is stable and there are still considerable uncertainty. The opening of the capital projects will be how much risk? What kind of strategy can open to minimize the risks? How to effectively control and even eliminate these risks? To answer these three questions to further accelerate the liberalization of capital projects to promote China, the importance is self-evident.
In this paper, the necessity of currency convertibility under the capital account, practical and strategic of the research background and significance, explains the research; and then through the international experience and empirical research, to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the risk of currency convertibility under the capital account, all kinds of risk capital project open and sort out the reasons for their formation and on the relationship between capital account convertibility and financial crisis of historical retrospective study; again specifically from the minimal capital project classification of the optimal open strategy and order, and the corresponding risk control measures, in order to improve the ability to guide the theory on practice; finally, as the basic means of risk control, construction risk monitoring and emergency mechanism of Monetary Crisis Study on capital account convertibility process in.
In the part of empirical research, this paper takes an "convertible economic growth" econometric model from the necessity of currency convertibility under the capital side argument; then the existence of a "risk transfer", "mathematical model of credit uncertainty, currency convertibility under the capital account may be demonstrated through the credit mechanism of increased risk; in the last part of the dynamic changes of risk early warning, assessment China financial security based on three index analysis model, analysis of currency convertibility under the capital account the actual impact on financial security, feasibility analysis and state transition models to forecast the financial security Chinese mid-term.
This paper argues that the full convertibility of the renminbi is the inevitable evolution with the economic and social development goal, which is accompanied by the risk may even lead to a crisis, but also because of this, the identification of risk sources, there are plans to take appropriate account order, open risk response measures to properly frame strictly, to establish risk monitoring system and comprehensive crisis emergency mechanism the effective risk control, to ensure the smooth progress of convertibility, and ultimately maximize the welfare of the national economy.

【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

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本文編號：1363124