本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)的貨幣政策與匯率政策均應(yīng)及時(shí)調(diào)整　出處：《國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論》2010年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 總需求 通脹 利率 房?jī)r(jià) 匯率

【摘要】：2010年第1季度中國(guó)總需求已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)過(guò)熱跡象,但全年增長(zhǎng)形勢(shì)仍具不確定性,關(guān)鍵在于房地產(chǎn)投資與凈出口增速如何變動(dòng)。綜合食品價(jià)格、輸入型通脹壓力以及基期效應(yīng)的分析,CPI同比增速在7、8月份可能超過(guò)4%,從而提高3季度加息的概率。從流動(dòng)性、供求缺口與通脹預(yù)期來(lái)看,2季度房?jī)r(jià)仍有上漲壓力,下半年房?jī)r(jià)走勢(shì)不確定。4月份新出臺(tái)的政府調(diào)控措施短期內(nèi)將導(dǎo)致量?jī)r(jià)齊跌,但如果低利率與寬信貸的格局不改變,房?jī)r(jià)中期內(nèi)仍有上漲空間。人民幣匯率存在一定低估,匯率形成機(jī)制彈性化成為當(dāng)務(wù)之急。最可能的升值方式仍是小幅漸進(jìn)升值,但同時(shí)應(yīng)控制熱錢流入。2010年第2季度是人民幣匯率彈性化的最佳時(shí)間窗口。
[Abstract]:China's aggregate demand has shown signs of overheating in in the first quarter of 2010, but growth for the full year remains uncertain, depending on how real estate investment and net export growth fluctuate. Analysis of imported inflationary pressure and base period effect the CPI growth rate may exceed 4% in July and August, thus increasing the probability of raising interest rates in the third quarter. From the perspective of liquidity, supply and demand gap and inflation expectations. House prices in the second quarter still have upward pressure, the second half of the trend of house prices uncertainty in April the new government regulatory measures will cause volume prices to fall in the short term, but if low interest rates and broad credit pattern does not change. There is still room for the rise of house prices in the medium term. The RMB exchange rate is somewhat undervalued, and the flexibility of exchange rate formation mechanism has become a top priority. The most likely way of appreciation is still a small gradual appreciation. But at the same time, hot money inflows should be controlled. In the second quarter of 2010 is the best time window for RMB exchange rate flexibility.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院世界經(jīng)濟(jì)與政治研究所;
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F822.0
【正文快照】： 一、總需求在第1季度出現(xiàn)過(guò)熱跡象,但全年增長(zhǎng)形勢(shì)仍具不確定性2010年第1季度GDP同比增速達(dá)到11.9%,環(huán)比折年率約為10.5%,這反映了經(jīng)濟(jì)3季增度長(zhǎng)起強(qiáng),勁中,國(guó)總G需DP求增熱速度已較經(jīng)高重。新通超過(guò)過(guò)用了H潛P(yáng)在濾增波長(zhǎng)法率衡,量產(chǎn)的出產(chǎn)缺出口缺由口負(fù)來(lái)轉(zhuǎn)看正,。從2009第*，

本文編號(hào)：1360572