【摘要】：農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的研究隨著人們的生活的提高也日益受到國內的學者關注，但生活中時�？梢姷馁I菜貴和賣菜難的現(xiàn)象。筆者認為農(nóng)超建設的關鍵在于供應鏈利益分配，合理的利益分配才能使得合作具有穩(wěn)定性和推廣性。在合作形成的供應鏈模式中將以訂單為主，此時合作的關鍵在于供求信息的預測分析。于是本文結合供求與流通兩個環(huán)節(jié)出發(fā)進行分析。希望能為農(nóng)超合作提供一些數(shù)理依據(jù)，旨在為農(nóng)超合作提供切實有效的建設指導。 在供求方面以傳統(tǒng)的蛛網(wǎng)模型作為基礎的同時結合了羊群效應理論，以利潤率為視角驗證了價格漲幅對未來供給量波動的影響視角。證實了在行為經(jīng)濟視角中農(nóng)戶種植仍然存在著蛛網(wǎng)模型效應。同時建立了Q Q0R的模型預測收益變化時下一個周期的銷量。 在流通方面分析了農(nóng)超合作的收益分配模型，得出了在農(nóng)超合作的供應鏈下，如何通過利益分配能夠有效的穩(wěn)定供應鏈的合作關系得到了供應鏈利益分配α的區(qū)間。 最后，融合了供求和流通兩個方面的分析，將實際的數(shù)據(jù)進行代入擬算。交易量預測模型的預測平均準確率為87.19%，，白花菜樣本的利益分配的取值區(qū)間為[0.16，0.2]，同時還得出了農(nóng)超建設的合作距離范圍，為農(nóng)超建設規(guī)劃提供了依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of people's life, the research of agricultural products has been paid more and more attention by domestic scholars, but it is often seen in life that it is expensive to buy and difficult to sell. The author believes that the key to the construction of Nongchao lies in the distribution of interests in the supply chain, and the reasonable distribution of interests can make the cooperation stable and popularize. Orders will be the main supply chain model formed by cooperation, and the key to cooperation lies in the prediction and analysis of supply and demand information. So this article combines the supply and demand and circulation two links to carry on the analysis. It is hoped that it can provide some mathematical basis for the cooperation of Nongchao, and provide practical and effective construction guidance for the cooperation of Nongchao. In the aspect of supply and demand, based on the traditional spider web model, combined with herding effect theory, the influence of price increase on future supply fluctuation is verified from the perspective of profit margin. It is confirmed that there is still spider web model effect in farmers' planting from the perspective of behavioral economy. At the same time, the model of Q Q 0 R is established to predict the sales volume in the next cycle when the return changes. In the aspect of circulation, this paper analyzes the income distribution model of agricultural super cooperation, and obtains the interval of supply chain benefit distribution 偽 through the cooperative relationship of benefit distribution which can effectively stabilize the supply chain under the supply chain of agricultural super cooperation. Finally, the actual data are calculated by combining the analysis of supply and demand and circulation. The average prediction accuracy of the transaction volume prediction model is 87.19%, and the range of benefit distribution of cauliflower samples is [0.16, 0.2]. At the same time, the cooperation distance range of Nongchao construction is obtained, which provides the basis for the construction planning of Nongchao.
【學位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F326.6

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