【摘要】：近年來,隨著煤炭市場的大幅波動和電力市場的持續(xù)低迷,煤電間的矛盾不斷凸顯,能源供應(yīng)形勢愈加嚴(yán)峻,燃煤發(fā)電企業(yè)為降低供電煤耗成本不得不摻燒劣質(zhì)煤,這就使得電廠進煤來源復(fù)雜化、煤種多樣化,并且由于市場煤受煤礦、鐵路、港口、中間商等中間物流環(huán)節(jié)種種復(fù)雜因素的限制,使得煤炭供應(yīng)形勢變得異常復(fù)雜,煤炭供應(yīng)風(fēng)險對企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營過程的影響更加深化,同時煤炭作為燃煤發(fā)電企業(yè)的最重要的生產(chǎn)要素,燃料成本影響企業(yè)盈虧的風(fēng)險明顯動態(tài)化。本文站在燃煤發(fā)電企業(yè)的角度,運用風(fēng)險管理及供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險管理理論,從電煤供應(yīng)的業(yè)務(wù)流程和價值鏈環(huán)節(jié)進行煤炭供應(yīng)風(fēng)險識別,并在對其風(fēng)險因素全方位識別的基礎(chǔ)上進行電煤供應(yīng)風(fēng)險分析。然后,根據(jù)當(dāng)前電煤供應(yīng)的實際形勢將燃料成本、供需結(jié)構(gòu)及庫存方案為風(fēng)險分析研究的核心,結(jié)合燃煤發(fā)電企業(yè)實際經(jīng)營情況建立火電機組成本一利潤動態(tài)模型、原煤混配經(jīng)濟模型及燃煤庫存風(fēng)險控制模型并進行分析。最后,根據(jù)電煤供應(yīng)鏈特點和企業(yè)經(jīng)營實踐經(jīng)驗運用風(fēng)險應(yīng)對理論,提出了燃煤發(fā)電企業(yè)煤炭供應(yīng)風(fēng)險防控策略、方法及建議。本文研究貼合燃煤發(fā)電企業(yè)煤炭供應(yīng)實際狀況,對燃煤發(fā)電企業(yè)如何更好的進行煤炭供應(yīng)風(fēng)險防范、規(guī)避燃煤價格風(fēng)險,加強發(fā)供電成本控制,提高企業(yè)盈利能力具有重要意義。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the large fluctuation of coal market and the continuous downturn of electricity market, the contradiction between coal and electricity is becoming increasingly prominent, and the situation of energy supply is becoming more and more severe. In order to reduce the cost of coal consumption, coal-fired power generation enterprises have to burn inferior coal. This has complicated the sources of coal intake in power plants, diversified the types of coal, and because the market coal is restricted by various complicated factors such as coal mines, railways, ports, middlemen and other intermediate logistics links, the coal supply situation has become extremely complex. The influence of coal supply risk on enterprise production and management process is deepened. Meanwhile, as the most important production factor of coal-fired power generation enterprise, the risk of fuel cost influencing enterprise profit and loss is obviously dynamic. Based on the theory of risk management and supply chain risk management, this paper identifies the coal supply risk from the business process and value chain of coal supply. On the basis of identifying the risk factors, the risk of coal supply is analyzed. Then, according to the actual situation of power coal supply at present, the fuel cost, supply and demand structure and inventory plan are taken as the core of risk analysis and research, and a dynamic model of coal-fired unit cost-profit is established according to the actual operating conditions of coal-fired power generation enterprises. Raw coal mixed economic model and coal inventory risk control model and analysis. Finally, according to the characteristics of coal supply chain and the practical experience of enterprises, the paper puts forward the coal supply risk prevention and control strategy, methods and suggestions based on the theory of risk response. This paper studies the actual situation of coal supply in coal-fired power generation enterprises, how to better prevent coal supply risks, avoid the price risks of coal, and strengthen the cost control of power generation. It is of great significance to improve the profitability of enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F274;F426.21

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