新產品上市階段供應鏈運作的魯棒決策分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-05 18:56
【摘要】：創(chuàng)新是企業(yè)發(fā)展的永恒主題，成功推出新產品、新服務與新解決方案則是企業(yè)發(fā)展的核心訴求。新產品上市階段作為成功推出新產品的關鍵環(huán)節(jié)，是典型的合作型工作鏈，需要企業(yè)內各部門及供應鏈各企業(yè)節(jié)點的參與與合作。然而新產品固有的創(chuàng)新性造成的市場信息缺失使得上市階段運作面臨巨大的風險和決策困難，可誘使供應鏈成員采取魯棒的決策行為。基于此，本文研究新產品上市階段企業(yè)魯棒決策行為下的供應鏈運作管理問題。通過對新產品需求信息缺失特征及企業(yè)魯棒決策行為刻畫，揭示魯棒行為下的新產品供應鏈決策特點，進而緊緊圍繞新產品上市階段的重要決策，設計供應鏈合作激勵機制與管理干預舉措，優(yōu)化新產品供應鏈，促進新產品成功推出。具體做了以下幾個方面的工作： 首先，利用分布魯棒方法，建立基本的新產品供應鏈，構建本文的研究基礎。通過與需求分布信息完全已知的傳統(tǒng)供應鏈的數值分析結果比較，揭示出信息缺失的新產品供應鏈的特點。并且，結合已有實證研究結果提出了提高新產品上市成功率的思路：加強零售商激勵、加強信息獲取、加強營銷和運營的協(xié)調，用于解決以下新產品上市的渠道、鋪貨、定價和訂貨等具體決策問題。 面對經銷商因承擔較大銷售風險不愿意大量鋪貨，難以建立起新產品的銷售渠道的現實問題，文章在新產品上市的現行操作模式基礎上，設計了“VMI+寄售+返利”的供應鏈契約，研究了面對新產品市場信息缺失，制造商和零售商都存在魯棒決策行為的供應鏈。通過定理證明了該契約能實現零售商績效改進的同時激勵零售商制定較低零售價格，從而有利于快速有效地建立起新產品銷售渠道，支持新產品入市，且發(fā)現該供應鏈具有很強的穩(wěn)定性和適應性。 面對新產品市場信息缺失、擴散不確定造成的上市階段鋪貨決策困難，文章試圖通過多個市場預測來更準確地描述新產品上市的需求，構建了基于多個市場預測的新產品鋪貨決策模型，并以CVaR風險指標定量化地度量了鋪貨決策的風險，以最低期望收益為約束，利用worst-case魯棒優(yōu)化方法研究了對每種預測出現的可能性完全無法估計以及能粗略估計這兩種情況下的最優(yōu)鋪貨決策。數值分析通過將多市場預測與單一市場預測、及加權平均策略下的鋪貨和績效比較發(fā)現魯棒決策行為下的鋪貨決策相對保守，但在防范新產品上市后的小概率事件風險上有優(yōu)勢，且能保證在各種新產品市場情形下獲得平穩(wěn)回報，進一步還發(fā)現了該方法的有效性和魯棒性。 在“營銷和運營相互協(xié)調”的研究視角下，文章還研究了有魯棒決策行為的零售商對新產品的定價訂貨進行聯(lián)合決策的問題，通過優(yōu)化求解得到新產品魯棒最優(yōu)定價與訂貨決策，及期望收益的上下界。研究發(fā)現在魯棒決策行為下，與單一決策相比，聯(lián)合決策方式推出新產品能帶來巨大的績效改進，通過運營和營銷的相互調整和配合也使得新產品供應鏈更穩(wěn)定，能更有效地應對上市過程中的不確定性。 最后，在確定了魯棒聯(lián)合決策對信息缺失的新產品供應鏈的價值基礎上，結合營銷學實證研究結果，刻畫了同時存在價格參考效應和價格質量效應的新產品價格需求函數，并進一步分析了不同創(chuàng)新度新產品的消費者價格心理特點。研究結果發(fā)現了適合不同創(chuàng)新度新產品的營銷策略，從理論上印證了營銷實證方法得到的結論，，同時發(fā)現消費者的參考價格對于新產品上市的重要性。 隨著對新產品上市供應鏈運作的需求特征、風險來源、決策行為的進一步認識，以及不確定性魯棒決策理論方法自身的進一步完善，新產品上市管理中的問題必將得到更深入的關注和研究。
[Abstract]:Innovation is the eternal theme of enterprise development, the successful introduction of new products, new services and new solutions is the core demand of enterprise development. As the key link of the successful launch of new products, the new product listing stage is a typical cooperative work chain, which requires the participation and cooperation of all departments in the enterprise and the enterprise nodes of the supply chain. However, the new production is new. The lack of market information inherent in the product makes the operation of the market facing huge risks and decision-making difficulties, which can induce the supply chain members to take robust decision-making behavior. Based on this, this paper studies the operation management of the supply chain under the robust decision-making behavior of the new product in the market stage. The characteristics and the characterization of the firm's robust decision-making behavior reveal the characteristics of the supply chain decision under the robust behavior, and then closely around the important decision of the new product listing stage, design the supply chain cooperation incentive mechanism and management intervention measures, optimize the new product supply chain, and promote the successful introduction of new products.
First, we use the distributed robust method to establish the basic new product supply chain and build the research foundation of this paper. Through the comparison of the numerical analysis results of the traditional supply chain with the fully known distribution information, it reveals the characteristics of the new product supply chain with the lack of information, and puts forward the improvement of the new product listing with the results of the existing empirical research. The idea of the success rate: strengthen the retailer incentive, strengthen the information acquisition, strengthen the coordination of marketing and operation, and solve the specific decision problems of the following new products, such as the marketing channels, the pricing and ordering.
On the basis of the current operation mode of new product listing, the supply chain contract of "VMI+ consignment + rebate" is designed on the basis of the current operation mode of new product listing. The supply chain of robust decision-making behavior proves that the contract can improve the performance of the retailer and encourage retailers to make lower retail prices, which is conducive to the rapid and effective establishment of new product sales channels, support new products into the market, and find that the supply chain has a strong stability and adaptability.
In the face of the lack of information in the new product market and the uncertainty caused by the uncertainty of diffusion, the article tries to describe the demand of the new product more accurately by multiple market forecasts, and constructs a new product decision model based on multiple market forecasting, and quantificationally measures the risk of the decision making with the CVaR risk index. With the minimum expected return as the constraint, the worst-case robust optimization method is used to study the optimal decision making for the two cases in which the possibility of each prediction is completely unestimated and the rough estimate can be made. The numerical analysis is found by comparing the multi market forecast with the single market forecast and the comparison of the performance of the goods under the weighted average strategy. The decision making of the robust decision is relatively conservative, but it has the advantage in preventing the risk of small probability event after the new product is listed, and can guarantee the stable return in the market situation of various new products. Further, the effectiveness and robustness of the method are further found.
In the perspective of "coordination of marketing and operation", the article also studies the problem of joint decision making by retailers with robust decision-making behavior for the pricing and ordering of new products. By optimizing the solution, the robust optimal pricing and ordering decision of new products and the upper and lower bounds of expected returns are obtained. Compared with the decision making, the introduction of new products by joint decision making can bring great performance improvement. Through the adjustment and cooperation of operation and marketing, the new product supply chain is more stable, and the uncertainty in the process of listing can be more effectively dealt with.
Finally, on the basis of determining the value of the new product supply chain with the lack of information on the robust joint decision, combined with the results of the empirical study of marketing, it depicts the price demand function of the new product which has the price reference effect and the price quality effect simultaneously, and further analyzes the psychological characteristics of the consumer price of different new products. The result shows the marketing strategy suitable for new products with different innovation degrees. It proves the conclusion of the empirical method of marketing in theory, and finds the importance of the reference price of the consumer to the new product.
With the demand characteristics of the supply chain operation of the new product, the further understanding of the risk sources, the decision behavior, and the further improvement of the uncertain robust decision-making theory, the problems in the management of the new products will be paid more attention and research.
【學位授予單位】：重慶大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F274;F273.2
本文編號：2166688
[Abstract]:Innovation is the eternal theme of enterprise development, the successful introduction of new products, new services and new solutions is the core demand of enterprise development. As the key link of the successful launch of new products, the new product listing stage is a typical cooperative work chain, which requires the participation and cooperation of all departments in the enterprise and the enterprise nodes of the supply chain. However, the new production is new. The lack of market information inherent in the product makes the operation of the market facing huge risks and decision-making difficulties, which can induce the supply chain members to take robust decision-making behavior. Based on this, this paper studies the operation management of the supply chain under the robust decision-making behavior of the new product in the market stage. The characteristics and the characterization of the firm's robust decision-making behavior reveal the characteristics of the supply chain decision under the robust behavior, and then closely around the important decision of the new product listing stage, design the supply chain cooperation incentive mechanism and management intervention measures, optimize the new product supply chain, and promote the successful introduction of new products.
First, we use the distributed robust method to establish the basic new product supply chain and build the research foundation of this paper. Through the comparison of the numerical analysis results of the traditional supply chain with the fully known distribution information, it reveals the characteristics of the new product supply chain with the lack of information, and puts forward the improvement of the new product listing with the results of the existing empirical research. The idea of the success rate: strengthen the retailer incentive, strengthen the information acquisition, strengthen the coordination of marketing and operation, and solve the specific decision problems of the following new products, such as the marketing channels, the pricing and ordering.
On the basis of the current operation mode of new product listing, the supply chain contract of "VMI+ consignment + rebate" is designed on the basis of the current operation mode of new product listing. The supply chain of robust decision-making behavior proves that the contract can improve the performance of the retailer and encourage retailers to make lower retail prices, which is conducive to the rapid and effective establishment of new product sales channels, support new products into the market, and find that the supply chain has a strong stability and adaptability.
In the face of the lack of information in the new product market and the uncertainty caused by the uncertainty of diffusion, the article tries to describe the demand of the new product more accurately by multiple market forecasts, and constructs a new product decision model based on multiple market forecasting, and quantificationally measures the risk of the decision making with the CVaR risk index. With the minimum expected return as the constraint, the worst-case robust optimization method is used to study the optimal decision making for the two cases in which the possibility of each prediction is completely unestimated and the rough estimate can be made. The numerical analysis is found by comparing the multi market forecast with the single market forecast and the comparison of the performance of the goods under the weighted average strategy. The decision making of the robust decision is relatively conservative, but it has the advantage in preventing the risk of small probability event after the new product is listed, and can guarantee the stable return in the market situation of various new products. Further, the effectiveness and robustness of the method are further found.
In the perspective of "coordination of marketing and operation", the article also studies the problem of joint decision making by retailers with robust decision-making behavior for the pricing and ordering of new products. By optimizing the solution, the robust optimal pricing and ordering decision of new products and the upper and lower bounds of expected returns are obtained. Compared with the decision making, the introduction of new products by joint decision making can bring great performance improvement. Through the adjustment and cooperation of operation and marketing, the new product supply chain is more stable, and the uncertainty in the process of listing can be more effectively dealt with.
Finally, on the basis of determining the value of the new product supply chain with the lack of information on the robust joint decision, combined with the results of the empirical study of marketing, it depicts the price demand function of the new product which has the price reference effect and the price quality effect simultaneously, and further analyzes the psychological characteristics of the consumer price of different new products. The result shows the marketing strategy suitable for new products with different innovation degrees. It proves the conclusion of the empirical method of marketing in theory, and finds the importance of the reference price of the consumer to the new product.
With the demand characteristics of the supply chain operation of the new product, the further understanding of the risk sources, the decision behavior, and the further improvement of the uncertain robust decision-making theory, the problems in the management of the new products will be paid more attention and research.
【學位授予單位】：重慶大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F274;F273.2
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