發(fā)布時間：2018-03-25 20:17

  本文選題：需求管理　切入點：數(shù)據(jù)清洗　出處：《華東理工大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：在當今化妝消費品行業(yè)中,J化妝品事業(yè)部必須面對劇烈的需求波動,生產(chǎn)資源和供應資源有限的外部環(huán)境,在激烈的市場市場競爭中生存。為了平衡生產(chǎn)和銷售,在保證不缺貨的同時又不過度生產(chǎn),對供應鏈管理來說是一項巨大挑戰(zhàn)。改善需求管理,能從根本上提高顧客滿意度,提升產(chǎn)能利用率,降低新產(chǎn)品開發(fā)周期和庫存,及最終實現(xiàn)企業(yè)利潤率和投資回報率等方面帶來巨大好處。 本文以現(xiàn)代供應鏈銷售運營計劃和需求管理理論為依據(jù),先對J事業(yè)部的歷史數(shù)據(jù)收集清洗,找出真實需求并進行分析匯總,然后利用需求預測方法和統(tǒng)計技術建立水平和趨勢預測模型及季節(jié)性模型兩大類共十四種模型,驗證并修正模型以找出最符合發(fā)展趨勢的模型,并建立預測準確性考核體系KPI來評估預測質量。另一方面,還通過與經(jīng)銷商進銷存信息協(xié)同,獲取供應鏈下游信息,從而加強供應鏈的信息透明度并且提升預測準確度。 J化妝品事業(yè)部的需求預測管理,為企業(yè)下一步的供應和運營計劃提供了依據(jù),同時也為相關快銷品行業(yè)的需求分析和管理提供了一個很好的范例。
[Abstract]:In today's cosmetic consumer goods industry, the cosmetics division must face severe demand fluctuations, production resources and supply resources limited external environment, survive in the fierce market competition. In order to balance production and sales, It is a great challenge for supply chain management to improve demand management, improve customer satisfaction, increase capacity utilization, reduce the development cycle and inventory of new products. And the ultimate realization of corporate profit margins and return on investment and other aspects of great benefits. Based on the modern supply chain sales operation plan and demand management theory, this paper first collects and cleans the historical data of J business department, finds out the real demand, and analyzes and summarizes it. Then using demand forecasting methods and statistical techniques to establish level and trend forecasting model and seasonal model two categories of 14 models to verify and modify the model to find out the most consistent with the development trend of the model. On the other hand, the downstream information of the supply chain can be obtained by cooperating with the dealer, so as to enhance the information transparency of the supply chain and improve the accuracy of the prediction. The demand forecasting management of J Cosmetics Division provides the basis for the next supply and operation plan of the enterprise, and also provides a good example for the demand analysis and management of the related fast selling products industry.
【學位授予單位】：華東理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.72;F274

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本文編號：1664719