本文關鍵詞：基于層次分析法的巖溶隧道突水突泥風險評估，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

第32卷第6期 巖 土 力 學 Vol.32 No.6 2011年6月 Rock and Soil Mechanics Jun. 2011

文章編號：1000－7598 (2011) 06－1757－10

基于層次分析法的巖溶隧道突水突泥風險評估

許振浩1，李術才1，李利平1，侯建剛2，隋 斌1，石少帥1

(1. 山東大學 巖土與結構工程研究中心，濟南 250061；2. 中交一公局 橋隧工程有限公司，河北 高碑店 074000)

摘 要：為控制巖溶隧道突水突泥風險，通過統(tǒng)計與理論分析相結合的方法，研究了相關工程實例，并基于層次分析法研究了巖溶隧道突水突泥控制因素與因素權值，提出了巖溶隧道突水突泥風險3階段評估與控制方法。權值分析結果表明，不良地質、超前地質預報、地層巖性、地下水位是突水突泥風險的主控因素；其次為宏觀前兆、監(jiān)控量測、可溶巖與非可溶巖接觸帶、地形地貌、開挖支護；最后為微觀前兆、巖層產狀、層面與層間裂隙、圍巖級別。3階段評估包括初步評估、二次評估與動態(tài)評估，其中，初步評估是在施工方案制定前，為估計風險，對孕險環(huán)境(巖溶水文地質與工程地質條件)的評估；二次評估是在施工前，為評估施工組織設計合理性，綜合考慮孕險環(huán)境與致險因子(施工因素)而進行的評估；動態(tài)評估是在施工期，為了動態(tài)評估與控制風險，綜合考慮孕險環(huán)境、致險因子與風險控制反饋信息的評估。3階段評估與控制方法可實時、有效、準確地控制巖溶隧道施工風險，實現(xiàn)風險的動態(tài)修正與管理。研究成果在翻壩高速雞公嶺隧道取得了成功應用，對類似工程具有一定的借鑒意義。

關 鍵 詞：層次分析法；巖溶隧道；突水突泥風險；因素權值；三階段評估 中圖分類號：U45；P64 文獻標識碼：A

Risk assessment of water or mud inrush of karst tunnels

based on analytic hierarchy process

XU Zhen-hao, LI Shu-cai, LI Li-ping, HOU Jian-gang2, SUI Bin1, SHI Shao-shuai1

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（1. Research Center of Geotechnical and Structural Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China; 2. Bridge & Tunnel Co., Ltd., China First Highway Engineering Co., Ltd., Gaobeidian, Hebei 074000, China）

Abstract: In order to control the construction risk of karst tunnels, through statistical and theoretical analyses of relevant engineering projects, controlling factors and factors’ weight of water or mud inrush risks of karst tunnels are studied based on analytic hierarchy process; and a three-stage risk assessment and management method is proposed for the evaluation and controlling of construction risk of karst tunnels. Factors’ weight analysis results show that unfavorable geology, geological prediction, formation lithology and groundwater level are the main control ingredients of water or mud inrush risk. Macroscopic geological precursory information, monitoring measurement, contact zones of dissolvable and insoluble rock, geographic and geomorphic conditions, tunnel excavation and supporting are the minor significant factors; microcosmic precursory information, attitude of rock formation, layer and interlayer fissures, surrounding rock mass classification are the least important elements. The three-stage risk assessment method includes preliminary, secondary and dynamic assessment of water or mud inrush risk. Preliminary assessment is the evaluation of risk surroundings (karst hydrogeological and engineering geological conditions), and it is carried out for the estimation of risk before the enactment of the construction program. Secondary assessment is the evaluation of risk surroundings and risk factors (construction factors), and it is actualized for the appraisal of construction organization plan pre construction. Dynamic assessment is the evaluation of risk surroundings, risk factors and feedback information of risk management; and it is brought into operation for dynamic risk assessment and management. The three-stage risk evaluation and controlling process can be instantly, effectively, and accurately used for the management of construction risk of karst tunnels, and to realize dynamically amending and governing of risk. The research results are successfully applied to Jigongling Tunnel on the line of Fanba Expressway; and it is of consultant significance for similar engineerings.

Key words: analytic hierarchy process; karst tunnel; risk of water or mud inrush; factors’ weight; three-stage assessment

收稿日期：2010-06-08

基金項目：交通部西部交通建設科技項目資助（No. 2009318000008）；中國博士后科學基金面上資助項目（No. 20090461235）；山東大學研究生自主創(chuàng)新基金資助項目（No. 31410070613049）。 第一作者簡介：許振浩，，男，1985年生，博士研究生，主要從事巖溶地質、隧道工程災害預測與控制研究方面的工作。E-mail：issacxuzhenhao@

  本文關鍵詞：基于層次分析法的巖溶隧道突水突泥風險評估，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。