發(fā)布時間：2018-05-05 00:25

  本文選題：合同能源管理 + 全生命周期��； 參考：《合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：合同能源管理作為一種全新的充分應(yīng)用市場機制的商業(yè)化能源管理模式。它是基于節(jié)能服務(wù)公司和用能客戶之間建立一組復(fù)雜的契約關(guān)系,能夠有效降低能源成本,提升能源利用效率的節(jié)能模式,它不單是推銷節(jié)能產(chǎn)品和技術(shù),也同時是一種減少能源成本的管理技術(shù)、財務(wù)管理方法,是推進生態(tài)文明建設(shè)的重要手段。由于合同能源管理項目中業(yè)務(wù)過程與契約的復(fù)雜性和不完備性,使得合同能源管理項目實施過程中存在眾多風(fēng)險源,嚴重制約了合同能源管理項目的順利實施,因此,系統(tǒng)的識別和科學(xué)評價合同能源管理項目全生命周期的風(fēng)險具有重要的理論與現(xiàn)實意義。文章的主要創(chuàng)新性工作如下:(1)系統(tǒng)梳理分析了相關(guān)理論文獻�？茖W(xué)界定合同能源管理項目風(fēng)險內(nèi)涵的基礎(chǔ)上,總結(jié)了合同能源管理項目的主要運作模式和基本實施步驟。以全生命周期理論為基礎(chǔ),把項目劃分為實施前需求分析、實施方案設(shè)計、運營與調(diào)控、項目完成合同履行四個階段。采用流程圖分析法,優(yōu)化出一個更具科學(xué)性、更全面的項目業(yè)務(wù)工作流程,對合同能源管理項目全生命周期業(yè)務(wù)流程進行全面分析,建立了項目總流程圖和各階段分流程圖,展示項目實施的全部工作活動。統(tǒng)一表述項目主要工作步驟,項目的重點環(huán)節(jié),便于檢查各環(huán)節(jié)工作進展狀況,能夠及時發(fā)現(xiàn)問題和調(diào)整,形成了一個開放的不斷發(fā)展、積累和總結(jié)的項目實施構(gòu)架。(2)進行了基于全生命周期的合同能源管理項目風(fēng)險識別和風(fēng)險評價指標體系構(gòu)建。應(yīng)用了 WBS-RBS 法(Work Breakdown Structure, Risk Breakdown Structure,工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)和風(fēng)險分解結(jié)構(gòu))和德爾菲法對合同能源管理項目進行風(fēng)險識別,通過對項目的細致分解,把項目可交付成果和工作分解成較小,易于管理的部分,在此基礎(chǔ)上對每項子工作任務(wù)進行風(fēng)險辨識與分析,彌補了傳統(tǒng)方法的隨機性所導(dǎo)致風(fēng)險識別有可能發(fā)生遺漏的缺點。充分考慮了項目各階段與風(fēng)險之間動態(tài)的影響關(guān)系,克服將風(fēng)險視為靜態(tài)的、單階段出現(xiàn)、相互獨立的不足,每一階段工作任務(wù)對應(yīng)本階段所遇見主要風(fēng)險,進行整理、歸納后,構(gòu)建了合同能源管理項目風(fēng)險評價指標體系。并詳細剖析了各類風(fēng)險源。(3)構(gòu)建了合同能源管理項目全生命周風(fēng)險綜合評價模型。合同能源管理項目風(fēng)險是典型的多階段多屬性信息融合問題,評價中存在大量不確定性問題。文章將AHP法和D-S證據(jù)理論有機融合,AHP法重點解決項目全生命周期各階段指標權(quán)重,而D-S證據(jù)理論作為多源信息融合的工具,可以較好的解決信息融合過程中的不確定性問題,同時在處理定量指標時采用了白化權(quán)函數(shù)來獲取基本可信度,解決了混合屬性一致性轉(zhuǎn)化問題。兩方法的結(jié)合有效利用領(lǐng)域?qū)＜业慕?jīng)驗,不僅能科學(xué)合理得出項目總風(fēng)險,也能得出項目生命周期內(nèi)各階段風(fēng)險水平,利于更好風(fēng)險掌控。并以某市節(jié)能服務(wù)公司實施的項目作為案例分析對象,驗證所構(gòu)建風(fēng)險綜合評價模型的有效性。在評估確定性和準確性方面相比較模糊綜合評估法(FCE)有了顯著的改善。本文圍繞合同能源管理項目的全生命周期風(fēng)險評價開展相關(guān)研究,可以促進節(jié)能服務(wù)公司、用能客戶及其他相關(guān)利益方提高風(fēng)險識別與評估能力,實施項目有效的風(fēng)險管理,實現(xiàn)預(yù)期節(jié)能減排目標。
[Abstract]:As a brand new commercial energy management model, the contract energy management is based on the establishment of a complex contract relationship between energy saving service companies and customers, which can effectively reduce energy cost and improve energy efficiency. It is not only the sale of energy saving products and technology, but also the energy saving products and technology. It is a kind of management technology to reduce the cost of energy, and the financial management method is an important means to promote the construction of ecological civilization. Because of the complexity and incompleteness of the business process and contract in the contract energy management project, there are many sources of risk in the implementation of the contract energy management project, which seriously restricts the contract of the contract energy management project. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to identify and scientifically evaluate the whole life cycle risk of the contract energy management project. The main innovative work of this article is as follows: (1) systematic analysis of the relevant theoretical literature. Based on the scientific definition of the risk connotation of the contract energy management item, the contract energy management is summarized. On the basis of the whole life cycle theory, the project is divided into pre implementation demand analysis, implementation plan design, operation and control, project completion of the four stages of contract performance. The whole life cycle business process of the energy management project is analyzed comprehensively, the total project flow chart and the process diagram of each stage are set up, all the work activities of the project are displayed, the main work steps of the project, the key link of the project, the inspection of the progress of each link, the timely discovery of the problems and the formation of the problems and the formation of the problems and adjustments can be found. An open and continuous development, accumulation and summary of the project implementation framework. (2) a whole life cycle based contract energy management project risk identification and risk evaluation index system construction. The application of the WBS-RBS method (Work Breakdown Structure, Risk Breakdown Structure, work decomposition structure and risk decomposition structure) and Delphy Through the detailed decomposition of the project, the method decomposes the deliverables and work into smaller and manageable parts. On this basis, the risk identification and analysis of each sub task can be made up, which make up for the missing of risk identification caused by the traditional methods. Taking full consideration of the dynamic relationship between each stage and the risk of the project, overcoming the risk regarded as static, single stage, independent and independent, each stage work task corresponds to the main risks encountered in this stage, and then constructs the risk evaluation index system of the contract energy management project. All kinds of risk sources. (3) the whole life cycle risk assessment model of the contract energy management project is constructed. The risk of the contract energy management project is a typical multi-stage multi attribute information fusion problem. There are a lot of uncertainties in the evaluation. The paper combines the AHP method with the D-S evidence theory, and the AHP method focuses on the whole life cycle of the project. The weight of phase index, and D-S evidence theory as a tool for multi source information fusion, can better solve the uncertainty in the process of information fusion. At the same time, the whitening weight function is used to obtain the basic credibility in the processing of quantitative indexes, and the problem of the conversion of the conformance of mixed attributes is solved. The combination of the two method can effectively use the experts in the field. The experience, not only can scientifically and rationally draw the total project risk, but also can get the risk level of each stage in the life cycle of the project, which is beneficial to the better risk control. Compared with the whole life cycle risk assessment of the contract energy management project, the relevant research on the whole life cycle risk assessment of the contract energy management project can promote the energy saving service companies to improve the ability to identify and evaluate the risk with the customers and other relevant stakeholders, implement the effective risk management of the project, and realize the expected energy saving and emission reduction target. Mark.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F206

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