【摘要】：國務院于2015年發(fā)布的《中國制造2025》拉開了我國制造強國戰(zhàn)略十年綱領計劃的序幕,在隨后的2016年,《裝備制造業(yè)標準化和質量提升規(guī)劃》的推廣更是為制造業(yè)的發(fā)展鋪好了前進的階石,制造強國的思路已成為我國當前最重要的指導思想之一。而作為裝備制造業(yè)領頭軍的設備制造業(yè),它的發(fā)展水平已經成為衡量國家硬實力的重要標準,同時,設備制造業(yè)也是我國經濟發(fā)展的重要支柱產業(yè),更是產業(yè)升級的重要保障。設備制造業(yè)可分為專用設備制造業(yè)和通用設備制造業(yè)。專用設備制造業(yè)是為我國第一產業(yè)、第二產業(yè)、第三產業(yè)和防務設施以及基礎設施供應行業(yè)專用固定資產的行業(yè)。它的發(fā)展受到很多因素的影響,比如國家政策、稅收政策、產業(yè)轉型趨勢、投資力度大小、上下游產業(yè)發(fā)展狀態(tài)等,總體來說,在現(xiàn)階段專用設備制造業(yè)呈現(xiàn)出快速發(fā)展的軌跡。通用設備制造業(yè)是為工業(yè)提供動力、傳動、基礎加工、等基礎零部件,行業(yè)產品應用領域廣泛,主要涵蓋航空航天、交通運輸、石油化工等市場,是設備制造業(yè)中的基礎性產業(yè)。近年來,專用設備制造業(yè)和通用設備制造業(yè)的稅收收入呈不斷上升趨勢,這不僅與我國經濟的快速增長有關,更與設備制造業(yè)在我國基礎設施中所扮演的角色越來越重要有著密切的關系。稅收收入不僅構成了國家財政收入的大部分,更是我國行使各種職能的物質基礎,有效進行某一行業(yè)的稅收收入預測能夠幫助稅務工作人員預見未來的稅收情況,也可以很好的對行業(yè)的發(fā)展情形作出規(guī)劃,更可以對稅收政策的制定提供參考價值。設備制造業(yè)稅收收入預測是在是對設備制造業(yè)歷史稅收數(shù)據收集、稅收影響因素分析等共同作用下進行的,對設備制造業(yè)稅收管理計劃的制定有參考意義�，F(xiàn)今雖然有很多稅收收入預測模型,但大部分是針對其他行業(yè)、同一稅種或全國稅收收入來進行預測的,對設備制造業(yè)稅收收入來說難以做到預測的精和準。本文在緒論章節(jié)后首先對專用設備制造業(yè)和通用設備制造業(yè)的內涵、發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及行業(yè)發(fā)展特點進行梳理;其次從宏觀和微觀兩個角度對專用設備制造業(yè)和通用設備制造業(yè)的稅收收入進行模型的構建、預測及分析,其中宏觀角度涉及到時間序列法、回歸分析法和趨勢外推法,微觀分析則利用經濟意義和逐步回歸兩種辦法對數(shù)據進行分析;最后,通過相對誤差的對比及預測結果的分析將模型進行優(yōu)劣評價,對于分析設備制造業(yè)稅收收入情況、促進專用設備制造業(yè)和通用設備制造業(yè)稅收征收管理具有重要作用?
[Abstract]:The "made in China 2025", released by the State Council in 2015, kicked off the 10-year strategic program of China's manufacturing power, followed by 2016. The promotion of "Standardization and quality improvement Program for equipment Manufacturing Industry" has laid a good stone for the development of manufacturing industry, and the thinking of manufacturing power has become one of the most important guiding ideology at present in our country. As the leader of equipment manufacturing industry, the development level of equipment manufacturing industry has become an important standard to measure national hard strength. At the same time, equipment manufacturing industry is also an important pillar industry of our country's economic development and an important guarantee of industrial upgrading. Equipment manufacturing industry can be divided into specialized equipment manufacturing industry and general equipment manufacturing industry. The special equipment manufacturing industry is a special fixed assets industry for China's primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, defense facilities and infrastructure supply industry. Its development is affected by many factors, such as national policies, tax policies, industrial transformation trends, investment dynamics, upstream and downstream industrial development status, etc. Generally speaking, At the present stage, the special equipment manufacturing industry presents a rapid development track. The general equipment manufacturing industry provides power, transmission, basic processing, and other basic components for industry. The products in the industry are widely used in a wide range of fields, mainly covering markets such as aerospace, transportation, petrochemical, etc. Is the basic industry in the equipment manufacturing industry. In recent years, the tax revenue of the special equipment manufacturing industry and the general equipment manufacturing industry has been on the rise, which is not only related to the rapid economic growth of our country. More and more, the equipment manufacturing industry plays an increasingly important role in China's infrastructure. Tax revenue not only constitutes the majority of the national financial revenue, but also the material basis for our country to exercise all kinds of functions. Effective tax revenue forecasting in a certain industry can help tax officials to foresee the future tax situation. It can also make a good plan for the development of the industry and provide reference value for the tax policy formulation. The tax revenue forecast of the equipment manufacturing industry is carried out under the joint action of collecting the historical tax data of the equipment manufacturing industry and analyzing the influencing factors of the tax revenue. It has reference significance for the establishment of the tax management plan of the equipment manufacturing industry. Although there are many tax revenue forecasting models nowadays, most of them are for other industries, the same tax category or national tax revenue to forecast, and it is difficult to predict the tax revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry. After the introduction, this paper firstly combs the connotation, current situation and characteristics of the special equipment manufacturing industry and the general equipment manufacturing industry. Secondly, the tax revenue model of special equipment manufacturing industry and general equipment manufacturing industry is constructed, predicted and analyzed from the macro and micro perspectives, including time series method, regression analysis method and trend extrapolation method, in which the macroscopic angle is related to time series method, regression analysis method and trend extrapolation method. Microanalysis uses economic meaning and stepwise regression to analyze the data. Finally, through the comparison of relative errors and the analysis of forecast results, the model is evaluated, which plays an important role in analyzing the tax revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry and promoting the tax collection and management of the special equipment manufacturing industry and the general equipment manufacturing industry.
【學位授予單位】：云南財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812.42;F406.7

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