【摘要】：建筑業(yè)是我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),而作為建筑業(yè)細(xì)分行業(yè)中產(chǎn)值規(guī)模占比最大的建筑施工企業(yè),隨著建筑業(yè)的不斷發(fā)展以及國際化進(jìn)程的加快,其面臨的競爭與面對的各種風(fēng)險也隨之增加,尤其是財務(wù)風(fēng)險對企業(yè)的威脅最大。如何在風(fēng)險發(fā)生前科學(xué)的預(yù)測風(fēng)險,并因此做好風(fēng)險防范工作對企業(yè)的發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警作為預(yù)測財務(wù)風(fēng)險的一種重要方法,能有效幫助企業(yè)及時地進(jìn)行財務(wù)風(fēng)險的預(yù)測,是企業(yè)防范財務(wù)風(fēng)險的基礎(chǔ),對企業(yè)的發(fā)展起著保駕護(hù)航的作用。財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警作為企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)運行的觀測指南,不僅具有較高的理論研究意義,而且具有較強(qiáng)的實際應(yīng)用價值。目前在傳統(tǒng)的企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警研究中,大多選取的指標(biāo)是建立在權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制基礎(chǔ)上的傳統(tǒng)指標(biāo)體系,該種指標(biāo)體系最大的缺陷就是存在被經(jīng)營者人為操縱的可能。因此,也有一些研究全部選取了現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)進(jìn)行財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警,但是已有研究也表明,有些傳統(tǒng)指標(biāo)是不能被現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)完全取代的,比如:杠桿率指標(biāo)。正是基于以上原因,論文嘗試將傳統(tǒng)財務(wù)指標(biāo)和現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)混合使用建立財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系,并加大了現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)的選取比重,以求能更好的達(dá)到預(yù)警效果。本文之所以加大現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)的比重,一方面是基于建筑施工企業(yè)生產(chǎn)周期長、資金耗用量大的特點,其財務(wù)風(fēng)險的產(chǎn)生往往與現(xiàn)金流出現(xiàn)的嚴(yán)重問題密不可分;另一方面是因為使用現(xiàn)金流指標(biāo)能夠為財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警提供更直觀、更有價值的信息。因此,本文基于選取傳統(tǒng)財務(wù)指標(biāo)和現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)雙視角構(gòu)建適用于建筑施工企業(yè)的財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警。在對建筑施工企業(yè)面臨的財務(wù)風(fēng)險及風(fēng)險影響因素分析的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合其特點分別從盈利、營運、償債、成長和資產(chǎn)管理五個維度選取傳統(tǒng)財務(wù)指標(biāo)和現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo),運用功效系數(shù)法構(gòu)建建筑施工企業(yè)的財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警,并進(jìn)行結(jié)果檢驗和結(jié)果分析,最后提出建筑施工企業(yè)在實施財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警時的相關(guān)對策建議。目的在于通過合理運用財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警,幫助建筑施工企業(yè)更好的進(jìn)行財務(wù)風(fēng)險的預(yù)測,在預(yù)測的基礎(chǔ)上科學(xué)防范財務(wù)風(fēng)險,以促進(jìn)建筑施工企業(yè)健康、持續(xù)的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The construction industry is the pillar industry of the national economy of our country, and as the construction enterprise with the largest output value in the construction industry subdivision industry, with the continuous development of the construction industry and the acceleration of the internationalization process, The competition and all kinds of risks are also increasing, especially the financial risk is the biggest threat to the enterprise. How to predict risk scientifically before the occurrence of risk, and therefore do a good job of risk prevention is very important for the development of enterprises. As an important method to predict financial risk, financial risk early warning can effectively help enterprises to forecast financial risk in time, is the basis of preventing financial risk, and plays an important role in protecting the development of enterprises. As an observation guide for enterprises' economic operation, financial risk early warning not only has a high theoretical significance, but also has a strong practical application value. At present, in the traditional enterprise financial risk early warning research, most of the selected indicators are based on the accrual basis of the traditional index system, the biggest defect of this index system is the possibility of being manipulated by the operator. Therefore, some studies have all selected cash flow indicators for financial risk early warning, but it has also been shown that some traditional indicators can not be completely replaced by cash flow indicators, such as: leverage index. Based on the above reasons, this paper tries to establish the financial risk early warning index system by using the traditional financial index and cash flow index, and increase the proportion of the cash flow index, in order to achieve better early warning effect. The reason why this paper increases the proportion of cash flow index, on the one hand, is based on the characteristics of long production cycle and large capital consumption of construction enterprises, and its financial risks are often closely related to the serious problems of cash flow. On the other hand, the use of cash flow indicators can provide more intuitive and valuable information for financial risk warning. Therefore, based on the traditional financial indicators and cash flow indicators, this paper constructs the financial risk early warning which is suitable for construction enterprises. Based on the analysis of the financial risks and risk factors faced by construction enterprises, the traditional financial indicators and cash flow indicators are selected from the five dimensions of profitability, operation, debt service, growth and asset management. This paper applies the efficiency coefficient method to construct the financial risk early warning of construction enterprises, and carries on the result inspection and the result analysis, finally puts forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions when the construction enterprises carry out the financial risk early warning. The purpose of this paper is to help the construction enterprises to forecast the financial risks by using the financial risk early warning reasonably, and to prevent the financial risks scientifically on the basis of the forecast, so as to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the construction enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F406.7;F426.92

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