本文選題：大數(shù)據(jù) + 盈利能力�。� 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：發(fā)電行業(yè)作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的基石行業(yè),在經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展中起著至關(guān)重要的作用。2015年9號(hào)文的頒布及新電力改革配套政策措施的實(shí)施,標(biāo)志著電力行業(yè)市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程的進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)。在電力市場(chǎng)引入競(jìng)爭(zhēng)機(jī)制之后,發(fā)電企業(yè)面臨著前所未有的發(fā)展機(jī)遇及挑戰(zhàn)。在面對(duì)市場(chǎng)化的未來環(huán)境中,發(fā)電企業(yè)將要參與市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng),而企業(yè)盈利能力的高低正是占有市場(chǎng)的關(guān)鍵,如何提高發(fā)電企業(yè)盈利能力水平成為亟待突破的發(fā)展要求。因此客觀評(píng)價(jià)電力企業(yè)的盈利能力,基于過去預(yù)測(cè)未來,為電力企業(yè)管理決策提供有力的依據(jù)就顯得尤為重要。本文以發(fā)電企業(yè)為研究對(duì)象,應(yīng)用相關(guān)數(shù)學(xué)模型,對(duì)發(fā)電上市公司盈利能力做出評(píng)價(jià)與預(yù)測(cè),以期為企業(yè)提供其盈利能力綜合指標(biāo)計(jì)算并追根溯源分析其影響因素,從而達(dá)到指導(dǎo)管理層決策的作用。本文首先通過閱讀大量文獻(xiàn)資料,從電力行業(yè)、盈利能力評(píng)價(jià)、盈利能力預(yù)測(cè)三個(gè)角度總結(jié)了國(guó)內(nèi)外的發(fā)展動(dòng)態(tài)及研究現(xiàn)狀,在此基礎(chǔ)上確定了論文的基本思路與框架。其次,通過對(duì)盈利能力內(nèi)涵的學(xué)習(xí)及評(píng)價(jià)與預(yù)測(cè)理論的研究,梳理了本文應(yīng)用模型的理論與方法。再次,論文以實(shí)證分析為主要內(nèi)容,分析了發(fā)電上市公司的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,選取了9個(gè)具有代表性且對(duì)盈利能力影響較大的量化指標(biāo),構(gòu)建了發(fā)電上市公司盈利能力評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。再次,搜集和處理了60家發(fā)電上市公司2011-2016年度與季度的指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù),并分別從橫向和縱向角度探討了其總體發(fā)展趨勢(shì)及子行業(yè)、資金規(guī)模和資本結(jié)構(gòu)三個(gè)分類下的盈利指標(biāo)特殊表現(xiàn)。由于簡(jiǎn)單的財(cái)務(wù)分析并不能體現(xiàn)對(duì)企業(yè)盈利能力綜合能力水平,本文在對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)有了初步分析之后,選用60家發(fā)電上市公司2011-2015年年度數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)估。針對(duì)指標(biāo)較多且為面板數(shù)據(jù)的特點(diǎn),選擇了因子分析與逼近理想值法相結(jié)合的評(píng)價(jià)模型,用以確定各上市公司2011-2015年期間內(nèi)盈利能力指標(biāo)得分和次序排名,并依據(jù)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果具體分析和總結(jié)不同子行業(yè)的盈利能力表現(xiàn),針對(duì)具體子行業(yè)提出盈利能力建議。由于市場(chǎng)環(huán)境的變化,發(fā)電上市公司也面臨著前所未有的障礙。總結(jié)過去的目的是為了指導(dǎo)未來。本文以盈利能力綜合指標(biāo)為預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)象,結(jié)合自回歸模型與支持向量機(jī)模型進(jìn)行盈利能力短期預(yù)測(cè),并基于因子分析的評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果給出一家公司的預(yù)測(cè)算例以證實(shí)其預(yù)測(cè)模型的可行性。在模型的運(yùn)用上,具體分析了企業(yè)盈利影響因素變動(dòng)后對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)指標(biāo)可能產(chǎn)生的影響,以期分析企業(yè)未來可能發(fā)生的變化并以此為基礎(chǔ)提出相關(guān)的應(yīng)對(duì)建議,為企業(yè)管理層決策提供方法與思路。
[Abstract]:As the cornerstone of national economic growth, power generation industry plays a vital role in economic and social development. Marks the electric power industry marketization advancement further advancement. After the introduction of competition mechanism in the electricity market, power generation enterprises are facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges. In the face of the future market environment, power generation enterprises will participate in market competition, and the profitability of enterprises is the key to occupy the market. How to improve the profitability of power generation enterprises has become an urgent need for development. Therefore, it is very important to objectively evaluate the profitability of electric power enterprises and forecast the future based on the past. This paper takes the power generation enterprise as the research object, applies the correlation mathematics model, makes the appraisal and the forecast to the power generation listed company's profit ability, in order to provide the enterprise with its profit ability comprehensive index calculation and trace back to the source analysis its influence factor. In order to guide the management decision-making role. Firstly, through reading a lot of literature, this paper summarizes the development trend and research status of power industry, profitability evaluation and profitability prediction, and then determines the basic ideas and framework of the paper. Secondly, through the study of the connotation of profitability and the research of evaluation and prediction theory, this paper combs the theory and method of applying the model. Thirdly, the paper takes empirical analysis as the main content, analyzes the current situation of power generation listed companies, selects nine representative quantitative indicators which have a greater impact on profitability, and constructs the evaluation index system of power generation listed companies' profitability. Thirdly, we collect and process the index data of 60 listed power generation companies in 2011-2016, and discuss their overall development trend and sub-industries from the horizontal and vertical angles, respectively. Capital size and capital structure under the three categories of profit indicators special performance. Because the simple financial analysis can not reflect the comprehensive ability level of the enterprise profitability, this paper selects 60 listed power generation companies to make a comprehensive evaluation of the annual data from 2011-2015 after a preliminary analysis of the data. In view of the characteristics of more indicators and panel data, the evaluation model combining factor analysis and approximation ideal value method is selected to determine the score and order of profitability index of each listed company in the period 2011-2015. According to the evaluation results, the paper analyzes and summarizes the performance of profitability of different sub-industries, and puts forward suggestions on profitability of specific sub-industries. Due to the change of market environment, listed power generation companies are also facing unprecedented obstacles. The purpose of summing up the past is to guide the future. This paper takes the comprehensive index of profitability as the prediction object, combines the autoregressive model and the support vector machine model to predict the profitability in the short term. Based on the evaluation results of factor analysis, a forecasting example of a company is given to verify the feasibility of its forecasting model. In the application of the model, the paper analyzes the influence of the influence factors on the forecast index, in order to analyze the possible changes in the future and put forward some relevant suggestions. Provides the method and the thought for the enterprise management decision-making.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61;F406.7

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