本文選題：財務風險預警 + 功效系數(shù)法　； 參考：《湘潭大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著國際經(jīng)濟一體化步伐的加快,市場的開放環(huán)境一方面為企業(yè)提供了更加寬廣、自由的發(fā)展空間,另一方面又使企業(yè)不得不面臨著更多的競爭與挑戰(zhàn),增加了企業(yè)的經(jīng)營風險。對于一個企業(yè)來說,合理的評估財務危機,及時的提出風險策略,采取相應措施規(guī)避財務風險,是企業(yè)賴以長久生存及穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的基礎。構建財務風險預警系統(tǒng),對企業(yè)管理水平的提升,企業(yè)人員風險防范意識的建立,公司經(jīng)營策略的改善有著明顯的作用,對緩解和減輕財務危機,避免企業(yè)陷入財務困境,提升企業(yè)的經(jīng)濟效益有著十分顯著的意義,因此建立預警系統(tǒng)對當代企業(yè)的生存和發(fā)展至關重要。本文首先介紹了家紡行業(yè)的發(fā)展進程,以及財務風險預警系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展及意義,同時在大量閱讀國內外文獻的基礎上,對相關理論與方法進行了綜述分析,確定了論文的研究方法,并提出了論文的研究思路,同時介紹了財務風險、財務風險預警、熵值法和功效系數(shù)法的相關理論,為后文公司指標的選擇奠定了理論基礎。其次介紹了G公司的基本情況及組織結構,并從內部和外部兩方面對公司的風險現(xiàn)狀進行分析,提出公司財務風險預警管理現(xiàn)狀及存在問題。接著提出了G公司預警指標選取的原則,從公司盈利水平、營運水平、償債水平及發(fā)展水平四方面計算了公司的財務指標,然后通過熵值法得出各指標以及指標類的權重,并利用Pearson相關分析對財務指標進行篩選。最后建立G公司財務預警模型,運用功效系數(shù)法結合公司實際財務數(shù)據(jù),對指標進行綜合評分,根據(jù)指標所處的警戒線范圍,得出公司5年的風險預警等級,結合其預警程度以及評分結果,提出相關風險防范措施。本文創(chuàng)造性的將功效系數(shù)法與熵權法相結合,彌補了以往研究中由于主觀性帶來的缺陷,以期提高G公司的風險預知水平,改善公司的財務問題,使公司能夠穩(wěn)健的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the pace of international economic integration, the open market environment on the one hand provides enterprises with a wider and more free space for development, on the other hand, the enterprises have to face more competition and challenges. Increased business risk. For an enterprise, reasonable evaluation of financial crisis, timely putting forward risk strategy, and taking corresponding measures to avoid financial risk are the basis for the enterprise to survive and develop steadily for a long time. The construction of financial risk warning system plays an obvious role in improving the level of enterprise management, establishing the awareness of risk prevention of enterprise personnel, and improving the company's management strategy, which can alleviate and alleviate the financial crisis and avoid the financial distress of the enterprise. It is of great significance to improve the economic benefits of enterprises, so it is very important to establish early warning system for the survival and development of modern enterprises. This paper first introduces the development process of home textile industry, and the development and significance of financial risk early warning system. At the same time, on the basis of reading a large number of domestic and foreign literature, it summarizes and analyzes the relevant theories and methods. This paper determines the research method of the paper, and puts forward the research ideas of the paper. At the same time, it introduces the related theories of financial risk, financial risk early warning, entropy value method and efficiency coefficient method, which lays a theoretical foundation for the selection of the index of the following company. Secondly, it introduces the basic situation and organization structure of company G, analyzes the risk situation of the company from the internal and external aspects, and puts forward the current situation and existing problems of financial risk forewarning management of the company. Then put forward the principle of G company early warning index selection, from the company profit level, operating level, debt service level and development level of four aspects of the company's financial indicators, and then through the entropy method to get the weight of each index and index class. Pearson correlation analysis is used to screen the financial indexes. Finally, the financial early-warning model of G company is established. The efficiency coefficient method is used to combine with the actual financial data of the company to score the index synthetically. According to the warning line range of the index, the risk warning level of the company for 5 years is obtained. Combined with the early warning degree and the score result, the paper puts forward the relevant risk prevention measures. This paper creatively combines the efficiency coefficient method and entropy weight method to make up for the defects brought by subjectivity in the previous research, in order to improve the risk prediction level of company G, improve the financial problems of the company, and enable the company to develop steadily.
【學位授予單位】：湘潭大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F406.7;F426.81

【參考文獻】

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1 朱國榮;馮昊;徐e，

本文編號：1815374