本文關(guān)鍵詞： 煤炭生產(chǎn) 投入產(chǎn)出 EROI評(píng)價(jià)模型 預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《西安科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在對(duì)煤炭生產(chǎn)可行性進(jìn)行評(píng)估時(shí)常常選擇財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)作為評(píng)判標(biāo)準(zhǔn),但財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)僅能評(píng)價(jià)煤炭生產(chǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值而忽略了煤炭作為自然資源的生態(tài)價(jià)值。EROI(能源投入回報(bào))方法既能夠評(píng)價(jià)煤炭生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效率,還能評(píng)價(jià)煤炭生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)的生態(tài)價(jià)值。為此,本文以榆林市為研究對(duì)象,利用三階EROI模型對(duì)煤炭生產(chǎn)的投入產(chǎn)出進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,主要工作和結(jié)論如下:(1)系統(tǒng)的分析了榆林市煤炭資源現(xiàn)狀和煤炭開(kāi)采現(xiàn)狀。通過(guò)實(shí)地調(diào)研和文獻(xiàn)資料梳理,分析了榆林市煤炭資源賦存條件、煤炭開(kāi)采的技術(shù)、成本、資金以及環(huán)境承載條件現(xiàn)狀,指出環(huán)境污染嚴(yán)重、生態(tài)失衡加劇、投入產(chǎn)出效率不高是制約榆林市煤炭行業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的主要問(wèn)題。(2)構(gòu)建了榆林市煤炭生產(chǎn)的三階EROI評(píng)價(jià)模型。根據(jù)榆林市煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)特征和煤炭生產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀,以煤炭開(kāi)采洗選業(yè)為EROI研究邊界,構(gòu)建可以將環(huán)境治理投入考慮在內(nèi)的煤炭生產(chǎn)三階EROI評(píng)價(jià)模型。其中三階EROI評(píng)價(jià)模型能源產(chǎn)出包括原煤,能源投入包括直接能源投入、間接能源投入、勞動(dòng)力投入和環(huán)境治理投入。(3)對(duì)榆林市煤炭生產(chǎn)的三階EROI評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。首先,基于1995年至2015年間的歷史數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)榆林市煤炭生產(chǎn)三階EROI值的歷史趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行分析。其次,選擇ARMA模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型和ARMA模型與灰色GM(1,1)模型的組合模型對(duì)榆林市煤炭生產(chǎn)的三階EROI值進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。熱當(dāng)量法計(jì)算的三階EROI預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果表明,在2018年至2020年期間小于1,Divisia加總法計(jì)算的三階EROI預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果表明,在2016年至2020年期間小于1。由于當(dāng)EROI值小于1時(shí),煤炭生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)的能源投入大于能源產(chǎn)出,榆林市煤炭生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)并不能給社會(huì)帶來(lái)凈能源。以上研究成果對(duì)煤炭資源富集區(qū)的煤炭生產(chǎn)投入產(chǎn)出評(píng)價(jià)研究具有重要參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:In the evaluation of coal production feasibility often choose financial indexes as the evaluation standard, but financial indicators can only evaluate the economic value of coal production and ignore the ecological value of coal as.EROI natural resources (energy return) method can evaluate the economic efficiency of coal production, but also the ecological value evaluation of coal production activities for this. This paper, taking Yulin city as the research object, carries on the empirical research by using the three order EROI model of input and output of coal production, the main work and conclusions are as follows: (1) the system analyzes the status and present situation of coal mining of coal resources in Yulin city. Through the investigation and analysis of the literature review, the occurrence conditions of coal resource in Yulin city coal mining, technology, cost, capital and environmental carrying conditions, pointed out that the serious environmental pollution, ecological imbalance, input-output efficiency is not high About Yulin City, the main problems of the sustainable development of coal industry. (2) to construct three order EROI evaluation of coal production in Yulin city. According to the model of Yulin coal industry characteristics and the current status of coal production, coal mining coal washing industry for the study of EROI boundary, construction will produce three order EROI evaluation model of environmental governance investment account of coal the three order EROI. The evaluation model of energy output including coal, energy inputs including direct energy input, indirect energy input, labor input and environmental governance. (3) the three order EROI evaluation model of coal production in Yulin city conducted empirical analysis. First, analyze the historical trends of Yulin's coal production of three order EROI the value of historical data from 1995 to 2015. On the second, choosing ARMA model, gray GM (1,1) model and ARMA model and grey GM (1,1) of Yulin coal production combination model The three order EROI value prediction. Three order EROI prediction calculation results of thermal equivalent method showed that in the period from 2018 to 2020 is less than 1, three order EROI prediction results of Divisia sum method showed that in the period from 2016 to 2020 due to less than 1. when the EROI value is less than 1, the coal production activities of the energy input is greater than the energy output Yulin City, coal production can not bring net energy to the society. The research of coal production input-output evaluation the above research results on coal resource rich region has important reference value.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.21;F406.7

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