【摘要】：服裝業(yè)作為我國傳統(tǒng)支柱性的產(chǎn)業(yè)，對(duì)我國的國民收入、出口創(chuàng)匯以及國內(nèi)就業(yè)有著非常重大的影響。目前，我國服裝出口正面臨著勞動(dòng)力成本上漲、原材料國內(nèi)外價(jià)差拉大、國外貿(mào)易壁壘越來越多以及人民幣持續(xù)升值等多重壓力。然而人民幣升值對(duì)我國服裝出口究竟有沒有負(fù)面影響一直是一個(gè)不確定的問題。 本文從兩個(gè)角度分析人民幣兌美元升值對(duì)我國服裝對(duì)美貿(mào)易的影響。從彈性的角度，本文利用C-D函數(shù)模型選取2009-2012年的季度數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算出中國服裝對(duì)美國的出口彈性值為2.3，滿足馬歇爾-勒那條件，得出人民幣兌美元升值會(huì)對(duì)我國服裝對(duì)美出口有不利影響；從匯率的角度，本文利用了向量自回歸模型分別選取了2000-2012和2005-2012年的季度數(shù)據(jù)得出人民幣兌美元升值對(duì)我國服裝對(duì)美貿(mào)易的差額是有負(fù)面影響，但是在匯率制度改革之后，匯率對(duì)中美服裝貿(mào)易差額的沖擊影響大大減弱，只有0.33個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，是匯率改革之前的十分之一，即人民幣兌美元升值對(duì)中美服裝貿(mào)易差額雖然有負(fù)面影響，但是影響微弱；同時(shí)也發(fā)現(xiàn)我國服裝對(duì)外依存度很高，匯率改革前后對(duì)外依存度均高達(dá)50%；中美兩國的國民收入對(duì)中美服裝貿(mào)易差額的影響在匯率改革之后增強(qiáng)，分別從原來的從原來的0.5和1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)上升到1.6個(gè)和1.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于匯率的沖擊影響。 最后本文對(duì)政府和企業(yè)提出建議，，希望政府從更高層面上調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需，促進(jìn)服裝的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈升級(jí)，為服裝行業(yè)創(chuàng)造良好的內(nèi)外部環(huán)境；希望企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)變管理理念，從技術(shù)和品牌上著手，加強(qiáng)企業(yè)間合作，合理分配資源，打造出更多一流的品牌。
[Abstract]:As a traditional industry in our country, the garment industry has a very important influence on our national income, foreign exchange and domestic employment. At present, China's clothing export is facing multiple pressures such as the rising of the labor cost, the widening of the spread of raw materials at home and abroad, the increasing number of foreign trade barriers and the continuous appreciation of the RMB. However, the negative impact of the appreciation of the RMB on China's clothing exports has been an uncertain problem. This paper analyses the reflection of the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar against the U.S. dollar against the US dollar from two angles In response, from the angle of elasticity, this paper uses the C-D function model to select the quarterly data from 2009 to 2012 to calculate the export elasticity value of Chinese clothing to the United States, and to meet the conditions of the Marshall-Le, it is concluded that the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will have a negative effect on the export of Chinese clothing to the US; from the angle of the exchange rate In this paper, we use the vector autoregressive model to select the quarterly data of 2000-2012 and 2005-2012, which has a negative effect on the difference between China's clothing and the US trade, but after the reform of the exchange rate system, the impact of the exchange rate on the trade balance between China and the United States is greatly reduced. The weak, only 0.33 percentage points, is one-tenth of the exchange rate reform, that is, the appreciation of the RMB against the United States dollar has a negative impact on the trade balance between China and the United States, but the impact is weak; at the same time, it is also found that China's clothing has a high degree of foreign trade, and the foreign exchange rate before and after the exchange rate reform is as high as 50 The impact of national income on the trade balance between China and the United States has increased after exchange rate reform, from the original 0.5 and 1.1 percentage points to 1.6 and 1.8 percentage points, far higher than the impact of the exchange rate In the end, the paper makes a suggestion to the government and the enterprise, and it is hoped that the government will adjust the industrial structure from the higher level, expand the domestic demand, promote the upgrade of the industrial chain of the clothing, create a good internal and external environment for the clothing industry, hope the enterprise to change the management idea, from the technology and the brand Let's start with, strengthen the cooperation between enterprises, allocate resources reasonably, and make more top-class
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江蘇科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F752.7;F832.6

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