【摘要】：中國外匯儲備近年來保持了高速的增長勢頭，截至2012年12月底，中國的外匯儲備量達到了33,100億美元，成為世界第一大外匯儲備國。鑒于中國現(xiàn)在的發(fā)展階段，繼續(xù)擴大出口貿易，引進優(yōu)良外資仍是我國近一階段的發(fā)展方向。另一方面，充足的外匯儲備對中國金融穩(wěn)定和國際地位有重要作用。儲備價值面臨著嚴重的匯率風險而且存在較高機會成本，整體收益偏低。 持有巨額的外匯儲備面臨諸多風險，主要包括匯率風險、投資收益損失風險、流動性風險和債務違約風險。近年來，隨著人民幣升值不斷升值，美元不斷貶值，以美元資產為主的我國外匯儲備所面臨的匯率風險尤為突出。在這一方面，我國目前理論界的研究還是主要集中在外匯儲備規(guī)模適度性的管理上，對于如何控制包括匯率風險在內的外匯儲備風險管理也僅停留在定性研究上，對于儲備貨幣的幣種研究缺乏必要的定量分析工具，需要我們進一度加深對此問題的研究。 文章通過運用計量模型分析匯率對我國外匯儲備的影響。在分析影響我國外匯儲備幣種結構諸多因素后，著手于我國外匯儲備結構下的幣種結構研究，結合我國外匯儲備過多和雙順差的現(xiàn)實國情，從投資組合的角度分析最優(yōu)的中國幣種結構，從而最大限度的分散風險、降低風險。在借鑒日本先進外匯儲備管理經驗的基礎上最后提出我國外匯儲備管理的具體策略。
[Abstract]:China's foreign exchange reserves have maintained a rapid growth momentum in recent years. By the end of December 2012, China's foreign exchange reserves had reached US $3.31 trillion, making it the world's largest foreign exchange reserve country. In view of China's current stage of development, it is still the development direction of our country to continue to expand export trade and introduce excellent foreign capital. On the other hand, adequate foreign exchange reserves play an important role in China's financial stability and international status. The reserve value faces the serious exchange rate risk and has the high opportunity cost, the overall income is on the low side. Holding huge foreign exchange reserves faces many risks, including exchange rate risk, investment return loss risk, liquidity risk and debt default risk. In recent years, with the appreciation of RMB and the depreciation of the dollar, the exchange rate risk of China's foreign exchange reserves, which is dominated by US dollar assets, is particularly prominent. In this regard, the current theoretical research in China is still mainly focused on the management of the scale of foreign exchange reserves, for how to control the risk management of foreign exchange reserves, including exchange rate risk, also only stays in the qualitative research, for the lack of necessary quantitative analysis tools for the study of reserve currency, we need to deepen the study of this problem. This paper analyzes the influence of exchange rate on China's foreign exchange reserves by using econometric model. After analyzing many factors that affect the currency structure of foreign exchange reserve in China, this paper studies the currency structure under the structure of foreign exchange reserve in China, and analyzes the optimal currency structure in China from the point of view of investment portfolio in combination with the realistic situation of excessive foreign exchange reserve and double surplus, so as to maximize the risk dispersion and reduce the risk. On the basis of drawing lessons from the experience of advanced foreign exchange reserve management in Japan, this paper finally puts forward the concrete strategies of foreign exchange reserve management in China.
【學位授予單位】：首都經濟貿易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 張冀;王樂;;基于數(shù)值模擬下的中國外匯儲備潛在損失分析[J];財經研究;2011年06期

2 張思斯;;中國外匯儲備風險與防范問題研究[J];經濟研究導刊;2011年01期

3 劉欽文;;我國巨額外儲的成因、風險及管理對策[J];時代金融;2010年12期

4 吳洋;;論我國外匯儲備的風險防范[J];經濟研究導刊;2010年17期

5 曾之明;岳意定;;中國外匯儲備風險及優(yōu)化管理探討[J];經濟與管理;2010年04期

6 張明;;略論中國外匯儲備面臨的潛在資本損失[J];經濟理論與經濟管理;2010年01期

7 孔立平;;次貸危機后中國外匯儲備資產的風險及優(yōu)化配置[J];國際金融研究;2009年08期

8 葉秀涓;王鵬;;我國外匯儲備影響因素中匯率對外匯儲備的影響[J];現(xiàn)代商貿工業(yè);2009年10期

9 趙萍;蔣雙;;美元貶值背景下我國外匯儲備的管理[J];商場現(xiàn)代化;2009年03期

10 魏曉琴;李國林;;金融危機時期我國外匯儲備風險動態(tài)管理研究[J];中國集體經濟;2008年Z2期

相關碩士學位論文 前1條

1 林靜蘭;我國外匯儲備動態(tài)管理問題研究[D];蘇州大學;2007年

，

本文編號：2500621