【摘要】：本文通過構建符合中國經(jīng)濟特征的新凱恩斯貨幣動態(tài)隨機一般均衡模型,并利用貝葉斯統(tǒng)計推斷方法測度和分析我國1992～2009年期間的貨幣政策有效性問題。研究結果表明,我國貨幣政策和經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)始終處于非決定性均衡路徑中,由于貨幣政策并不完全遵循"泰勒規(guī)則"模式并能夠引致"自我實現(xiàn)預期"的呈現(xiàn),從而致使經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)出現(xiàn)非決定性因素,而此非決定性因素能夠在一定程度上扭曲市場的供需反應信號。在我國"太陽黑子沖擊"雖然能夠?qū)?nèi)生變量產(chǎn)生顯著的沖擊影響,但是對基礎沖擊傳導的作用卻極為有限和微弱,經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中的非決定性因素不僅能夠改變基礎沖擊的傳導方式,而且能夠引發(fā)基礎沖擊效果的劇烈波動。對內(nèi)生變量波動的貢獻率而言,我國貨幣政策沖擊和"太陽黑子沖擊"的作用都較為微弱,而需求沖擊和供給沖擊的作用較為顯著。
[Abstract]:This paper constructs a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of money in accordance with the characteristics of Chinese economy, and measures and analyzes the effectiveness of monetary policy in China during 1992-2009 by using Bayesian statistical inference method. The results show that China's monetary policy and economic system have always been in an indecisive equilibrium path, because monetary policy does not fully follow the Taylor rule model and can lead to the presentation of "self-fulfilling expectations". This leads to the emergence of non-decisive factors in the economic system, which can distort the response signal of market supply and demand to a certain extent. Although the "sunspot shock" in China can have a significant impact on endogenous variables, it has a very limited and weak effect on the conduction of the base shock. The non-decisive factors in the economic system can not only change the conduction mode of the base shock, but also cause the violent fluctuation of the base shock effect. As far as the contribution rate of endogenous variable fluctuations is concerned, the effects of monetary policy shocks and sunspot shocks in China are relatively weak, while the effects of demand shocks and supply shocks are more significant.
【作者單位】： 吉林大學數(shù)量經(jīng)濟研究中心;
【基金】：國家社科基金重大項目“‘十二五’期間我國經(jīng)濟周期波動態(tài)勢與宏觀經(jīng)濟調(diào)控模式研究”(批準號10ZD&006) 國家自然科學基金項目“非線性隨機波動模型估計方法及應用研究”(批準號70971055) 國家自然科學基金項目“貨幣政策規(guī)則非線性的理論模型與計量研究”(批準號71001087) 吉林大學科學前沿與交叉學科創(chuàng)新項目“后金融危機時期我國經(jīng)濟周期波動態(tài)勢與宏觀調(diào)控模式研究”(2010JC026)資助
【分類號】：F822.0

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