人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)中美貿(mào)易失衡影響問(wèn)題的實(shí)證研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-01-29 04:43
【摘要】：近年來(lái)，，中美貿(mào)易失衡問(wèn)題已成為影響中美關(guān)系發(fā)展最主要的因素之一，而人民幣匯率是否作為中美貿(mào)易失衡的主要原因則更為學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)注。迫于美國(guó)等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的政治壓力和經(jīng)濟(jì)手段，中國(guó)人民幣匯率已持續(xù)8年連續(xù)升值，這種提供穩(wěn)定升值預(yù)期的匯率變動(dòng)是否真正能夠解決中美貿(mào)易失衡問(wèn)題更成為現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究中最受關(guān)注的問(wèn)題。因此，對(duì)人民幣匯率升值是否真正能夠緩解中美貿(mào)易失衡問(wèn)題，以及人民幣升值對(duì)中美兩國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的實(shí)質(zhì)性影響進(jìn)行研究具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)和理論意義。 為從更深層次揭示人民幣匯率升值與中美貿(mào)易以及中美經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的關(guān)系，本文從以下幾個(gè)方面對(duì)該問(wèn)題進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究：其一，美國(guó)對(duì)華政治態(tài)度變化是否真正影響人民幣匯率制度改革或?qū)θ嗣駧派凳欠翊嬖谝蚬P(guān)系。若存在必然聯(lián)系甚至存在因果則證明人民幣匯率對(duì)中美經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系至關(guān)重要，已在某種程度上成為解決中美關(guān)系的橋梁；其二，人民幣升值是否能夠緩解或者解決中美貿(mào)易失衡問(wèn)題。貿(mào)易失衡不利于任何國(guó)家的長(zhǎng)久發(fā)展，必將損害國(guó)家利益。若人民幣升值能夠緩解或解決中美貿(mào)易失衡問(wèn)題則應(yīng)選擇合理的升值途徑；其三，人民幣升值是否影響中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展。對(duì)外貿(mào)易是拉動(dòng)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要?jiǎng)恿�，選擇合理的匯率升值方式對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)系重大；其四，人民幣升值與美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系。盡管中美貿(mào)易相互依存度較高，但人民幣匯率變動(dòng)是否對(duì)美國(guó)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生直接影響值得商榷。經(jīng)過(guò)嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)囊?guī)范研究和實(shí)證分析，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)美國(guó)長(zhǎng)期通過(guò)政治壓力影響中國(guó)匯率，人民幣匯率已經(jīng)成為中美雙邊關(guān)系中重要談判內(nèi)容之一，但中美雙邊貿(mào)易不符合馬歇爾勒納條件，人民幣升值在解決中美貿(mào)易失衡問(wèn)題方面作用不顯著。同時(shí)，中國(guó)作為貿(mào)易大國(guó)，人民幣升值不利于中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展，而且以美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力就業(yè)為例進(jìn)行分析后發(fā)現(xiàn)，人民幣升值也不能解決美國(guó)就業(yè)問(wèn)題。 中美貿(mào)易失衡有自身的內(nèi)部原因，是國(guó)際產(chǎn)業(yè)分工和美國(guó)實(shí)行選擇性對(duì)外貿(mào)易政策的結(jié)果。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)看，人民幣市場(chǎng)化改革是必然趨勢(shì)，但應(yīng)該綜合考慮中國(guó)貿(mào)易環(huán)境和金融環(huán)境兩方面內(nèi)容，根據(jù)不同發(fā)展情況選擇最適合中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)化改革道路。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of Sino-US trade imbalance has become one of the most important factors affecting the development of Sino-US relations, and whether the RMB exchange rate is the main cause of Sino-US trade imbalance is more concerned by academic circles. Under the political pressure and economic means of the United States and other developed countries, China's RMB exchange rate has been continuously appreciated for eight consecutive years. Whether this exchange rate change, which provides a stable appreciation expectation, can really solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States has become the most concerned issue in the current economic research. Therefore, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to study whether the appreciation of RMB exchange rate can really alleviate the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and whether the real impact of RMB appreciation on the economies of China and the United States. In order to reveal the relationship between RMB exchange rate appreciation, Sino-US trade and Sino-US economy from a deeper level, this paper makes an empirical study on this issue from the following aspects: first, Whether the change of American political attitude towards China really affects the reform of RMB exchange rate regime or whether there is a causal relationship to RMB appreciation. If there is an inevitable connection or even cause and effect, it proves that the RMB exchange rate is very important to Sino-US economic relations, and has become a bridge to solve Sino-US relations to some extent. Second, whether the appreciation of the RMB can alleviate or solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Trade imbalance is not conducive to the long-term development of any country, and will certainly harm the national interests. If the appreciation of RMB can alleviate or solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States, it should choose a reasonable way of appreciation. Thirdly, whether the appreciation of RMB will affect the development of China's foreign trade. Foreign trade is the main driving force to stimulate China's economic growth, and choosing a reasonable way of exchange rate appreciation is of great importance to China's economic development. Fourth, the relationship between the appreciation of RMB and the economic development of the United States. Despite the high degree of trade interdependence between China and the United States, it is questionable whether the yuan's exchange rate movements have a direct impact on the U.S. real economy. Through rigorous normative research and empirical analysis, this paper finds that the United States has influenced China's exchange rate through political pressure for a long time, and the RMB exchange rate has become an important part of the negotiations between China and the United States. However, bilateral trade between China and the United States does not conform to Marshall Lerner's terms, and the appreciation of the yuan has not played a significant role in resolving the trade imbalance between China and the United States. At the same time, as a big trading country, the appreciation of RMB is not conducive to the long-term development of China's foreign trade. The trade imbalance between China and the United States has its own internal causes, which is the result of the division of international industries and the selective foreign trade policy of the United States. In the long run, the market-oriented reform of RMB is an inevitable trend, but we should consider the two aspects of China's trade environment and financial environment, and choose the most suitable market-oriented reform road according to different development conditions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F752.7;F757.12;F832.6
本文編號(hào)：2417656
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of Sino-US trade imbalance has become one of the most important factors affecting the development of Sino-US relations, and whether the RMB exchange rate is the main cause of Sino-US trade imbalance is more concerned by academic circles. Under the political pressure and economic means of the United States and other developed countries, China's RMB exchange rate has been continuously appreciated for eight consecutive years. Whether this exchange rate change, which provides a stable appreciation expectation, can really solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States has become the most concerned issue in the current economic research. Therefore, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to study whether the appreciation of RMB exchange rate can really alleviate the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and whether the real impact of RMB appreciation on the economies of China and the United States. In order to reveal the relationship between RMB exchange rate appreciation, Sino-US trade and Sino-US economy from a deeper level, this paper makes an empirical study on this issue from the following aspects: first, Whether the change of American political attitude towards China really affects the reform of RMB exchange rate regime or whether there is a causal relationship to RMB appreciation. If there is an inevitable connection or even cause and effect, it proves that the RMB exchange rate is very important to Sino-US economic relations, and has become a bridge to solve Sino-US relations to some extent. Second, whether the appreciation of the RMB can alleviate or solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Trade imbalance is not conducive to the long-term development of any country, and will certainly harm the national interests. If the appreciation of RMB can alleviate or solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States, it should choose a reasonable way of appreciation. Thirdly, whether the appreciation of RMB will affect the development of China's foreign trade. Foreign trade is the main driving force to stimulate China's economic growth, and choosing a reasonable way of exchange rate appreciation is of great importance to China's economic development. Fourth, the relationship between the appreciation of RMB and the economic development of the United States. Despite the high degree of trade interdependence between China and the United States, it is questionable whether the yuan's exchange rate movements have a direct impact on the U.S. real economy. Through rigorous normative research and empirical analysis, this paper finds that the United States has influenced China's exchange rate through political pressure for a long time, and the RMB exchange rate has become an important part of the negotiations between China and the United States. However, bilateral trade between China and the United States does not conform to Marshall Lerner's terms, and the appreciation of the yuan has not played a significant role in resolving the trade imbalance between China and the United States. At the same time, as a big trading country, the appreciation of RMB is not conducive to the long-term development of China's foreign trade. The trade imbalance between China and the United States has its own internal causes, which is the result of the division of international industries and the selective foreign trade policy of the United States. In the long run, the market-oriented reform of RMB is an inevitable trend, but we should consider the two aspects of China's trade environment and financial environment, and choose the most suitable market-oriented reform road according to different development conditions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F752.7;F757.12;F832.6
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