【摘要】：作為一個處于經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)軌時期的發(fā)展中大國，我國現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟和金融發(fā)展中，普遍存在地區(qū)經(jīng)濟金融發(fā)展水平參差不齊的特征。我國目前實行的統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策經(jīng)由各區(qū)域金融機構(gòu)和金融市場，傳導到企業(yè)和居民等微觀主體，再由企業(yè)和居民做出反饋后共同作用于經(jīng)濟體系。高度統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策或許并不能產(chǎn)生令人滿意的政策效果，甚至引發(fā)區(qū)域發(fā)展不平衡的負面效應，，造成經(jīng)濟的結(jié)構(gòu)性問題。 在上述背景下，本文將全國省級行政單位按國家統(tǒng)計局的劃分標準分成三個區(qū)域，利用2005年一季度到2012年一季度的季度數(shù)據(jù)，建立向量自回歸模型（VAR）和動態(tài)面板模型，利用脈沖響應、SYS-GMM矩估計等方法研究我國貨幣政策區(qū)域效應的現(xiàn)狀及原因。 本文首先驗證貨幣政策效果區(qū)域差異在我國的存在性，發(fā)現(xiàn)我國貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟總量的效果各區(qū)域大致相同，而對人均消費、固定資產(chǎn)投資、物價水平的影響卻呈現(xiàn)顯著的區(qū)域效應，這種區(qū)域效應通過敏感性、反應程度、時滯等形式表現(xiàn)出來。然后依據(jù)貨幣政策傳導機制理論，用比較分析的方法闡述引起這種區(qū)域差異的原因，并做橫截面數(shù)據(jù)回歸再次驗證比較分析的結(jié)論，本文認為，導致我國貨幣政策區(qū)域效應的原因主要是區(qū)域居民消費傾向不同、地區(qū)間金融發(fā)展程度不同、企業(yè)規(guī)模和性質(zhì)不同、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不同和通貨膨脹預期不同等。最后根據(jù)實證結(jié)果和分析結(jié)論提出相應的政策建議。
[Abstract]:As a large developing country in the period of economic transition, the regional economic and financial development level varies widely in our country at the present stage of economic and financial development. At present, the unified monetary policy in China is transmitted to the micro subjects such as enterprises and residents through regional financial institutions and financial markets, and then acted on the economic system by feedback from enterprises and residents. A highly unified monetary policy may not produce satisfactory policy effects, or even lead to negative effects of regional development imbalances, resulting in structural problems of the economy. Under the above background, this paper divides the national provincial administrative units into three regions according to the criteria of the National Bureau of Statistics. Using the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2012, the paper establishes the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and the dynamic panel model. The present situation and causes of regional effects of monetary policy in China are studied by means of impulse response and SYS-GMM moment estimation. This paper first verifies the existence of regional differences in the effect of monetary policy in China, and finds that the effect of monetary policy on economic aggregate is roughly the same in all regions, while on per capita consumption, fixed assets investment. However, the influence of price level shows a significant regional effect, which can be expressed in the form of sensitivity, degree of reaction and time delay. Then, according to the theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism, using comparative analysis method to explain the causes of this regional difference, and do cross-section data regression to verify the conclusion of comparative analysis. The regional effect of monetary policy in China is mainly due to the different consumption tendency of regional residents, the different degree of financial development among regions, the different size and nature of enterprises, the different industrial structure and the different expectations of inflation. Finally, according to the empirical results and analysis of the conclusions of the corresponding policy recommendations.
【學位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.0

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