【摘要】：全球經(jīng)濟與金融一體化加速了各國資本的國際流動、市場的開放,進一步從微觀上改進了全球范圍內的資源優(yōu)化配置。但是貨幣政策實施所依賴的整個金融運行環(huán)境的變化,因此從宏觀角度上為政府制定整體經(jīng)濟政策帶來了一定的難度。在制定貨幣政策的過程中,各國政府不僅要考慮到本國國內宏觀經(jīng)濟運行狀況,還要關注國際資本流動、世界經(jīng)濟波動等外部環(huán)境因素。于此同時,國際資本流動和世界經(jīng)濟形式也會對本國貨幣政策的改變做出反應,進而改變貨幣政策在國內的作用效果。在當前開放經(jīng)濟條件下,傳統(tǒng)的貨幣政策工具已不能適應新的金融環(huán)境,貨幣政策目標制的選擇需要適應新的變化。進入新世紀以來,我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展一直面臨十分復雜的內外部環(huán)境,具體表現(xiàn)為人民幣升值壓力、對外貿易摩擦加劇、資產(chǎn)價格膨脹等多種矛盾匯聚。盡管,我國央行出臺一系列貨幣政策,但是效果卻并不明顯。因而,我國貨幣政策的有效性、貨幣政策目標框架選擇等問題值得深入研究。 概括地說,本文是在經(jīng)濟學研究的基本框架下,在廣泛收集數(shù)據(jù)的基礎上,特別注重方法的運用與問題的研究相結合,從中國經(jīng)濟增長的基本問題出發(fā),對我國貨幣政策目標制的選擇問題進行研究。全文共分為七章,具體內容如下： 第一章：緒論。在此部分,將對全文做出概括性介紹,并分別就三個方面的內容進行了闡述。包括研究意義和研究背景,研究方法和技術路線,創(chuàng)新點和研究內容。 第二章：貨幣政策的相關理論概述。本章首先對貨幣政策的相關概念進行了界定和辨析,重點介紹了與本文研究密切相關的貨幣政策、中介目標、最終目標、最終目標規(guī)則與名義錨等概念；其次,介紹了貨幣政策中介目標選擇的相關理論,主要包括貨幣主義學派、凱恩斯主義學派、后凱恩斯主義學派等理論；再次,介紹了貨幣政策最終目標的相關理論,包括貨幣政策的時間不一致理論、理性預期理論等,并分析規(guī)則與相機抉擇的貨幣政策選擇原則；最后,回顧了我國貨幣政策的演變歷程。 第三章：開放經(jīng)濟下我國貨幣政策有效性分析。在對貨幣政策有效性進行理論分析的基礎上,從宏觀經(jīng)濟目標實現(xiàn)和貨幣政策工具選擇兩個角度出發(fā),基于我國貨幣政策的歷史演變,采用方差分解和基于VAR模型的脈沖響應函數(shù)等計量方法,利用實證模型評價和分析我國貨幣政策自亞洲金融危機依賴的有效性問題。在這一章,本文通過對金融危機以來,我國貨幣政策調控經(jīng)歷的“防通縮”、“控溫降速防通脹”和“保增長、防通縮與通脹”三個階段分別建立實證模型以及對整體樣本期建立實證模型,實證比較了不同經(jīng)濟階段下我國貨幣政策的有效性問題, 第四章：開放經(jīng)濟下我國貨幣供應量中介目標的選擇。本章基于貨幣政策中介目標選擇的三個標準,并結合我國目前的經(jīng)濟形勢,分別從相關性、可測性、可控性和傳導機制效果四個方面對我國貨幣供應量作為貨幣政策中介指標的可行性進行了理論與實證分析,得出相應的研究結論。 第五章：開放經(jīng)濟下我國利率中介目標的選擇。本章從理論與實證兩個方面論證了Taylor規(guī)則及其擴展形式是否能夠很好地模擬我國的貨幣政策變化趨勢,進一步具體分析了利率能否作為評價貨幣政策有效性的中介目標,并在實證結論的基礎上分析了Taylor規(guī)則在中國具體實施過程中所面臨的一些問題。本章的研究結論為利率規(guī)則是貨幣當局對利率政策進行調控時所依據(jù)的政策規(guī)則；原始的Taylor規(guī)則并不適用于我國,擴展的Taylor規(guī)則對我國更加適用。 第六章：開放經(jīng)濟下我國貨幣政策目標制的選擇。本章首先通過對我國現(xiàn)行的匯率目標制、貨幣目標制與通貨膨脹目標制的比較分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)通貨膨脹目標制能很好的彌補我國現(xiàn)行目標制中存在的缺點。然后,從制度、經(jīng)濟、技術、市場四個角度分析了通貨膨脹目標制在我國實行所需滿足的條件。最后,從央行貨幣政策損失函數(shù)最小化的角度出發(fā)建立理論模型并進行了實證研究,研究表明,“通貨膨脹目標制”下的通脹偏差要相對小于“相機抉擇機制”情況下的通脹偏差,因而,我國可以把通貨膨脹目標制作為未來的貨幣政策取向。 第七章：匯總了本文的總體研究結論,給出了相應的政策建議,并提出未來研究展望。 本文在以下幾個方面做出創(chuàng)新性的研究：第一,不僅評價了傳統(tǒng)研究下貨幣政策制定實施的目標有效性,而且還分析了到貨幣政策在調控工具選擇方面的有效性。將整個樣本期劃分為不同的階段進行研究,考察不同時期下貨幣政策的有效性。第二,國內很多學者在研究中并沒有清晰區(qū)分貨幣政策中介目標與最終目標之間的關系,本文在研究過程中明確對二者加以區(qū)分。第三,在我國貨幣供應量中介目標可行性、影響因素及適用條件進行實證檢驗的基礎上,對利率中介目標進行了深入研究。通過構建一個包含主要資產(chǎn)和金融信息的金融狀況指數(shù)納入Taylor規(guī)則中進行研究,同時也對其他所有可能的Taylor規(guī)則進行對比分析,證明了本文的研究模型是適用和可靠的。第四,通過對我國現(xiàn)行目標制與靈活的通貨膨脹目標制的對比分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)靈活的通貨膨脹目標制是我國貨幣政策目標制的一個可行選擇。通過數(shù)理推導得出靈活通貨膨脹目標制下的最優(yōu)貨幣規(guī)則,并應用中國的實際數(shù)據(jù)進行實證檢驗。但絕大多數(shù)的研究中僅僅從實證的角度加以說明,沒有明確的理論基礎。
[Abstract]:The global economic and financial integration has accelerated the international flow of national capital, the opening of the market, and further improved the allocation of resources in the global scope. But the whole financial operation environment depends on the monetary policy implementation, so it brings some difficulty to the government's overall economic policy from a macro perspective. In the process of formulating monetary policy, governments should not only take into account the domestic macro-economic health situation, but also pay attention to external factors such as international capital flow and world economic fluctuation. At the same time, the international capital flow and the world economic form will respond to the change of national currency policy and change the effect of monetary policy in China. Under the current open economy condition, the traditional monetary policy tool cannot adapt to the new financial environment, and the choice of the monetary policy target system needs to adapt to the new change. Since entering the new century, our country's economic development has been confronted with a very complicated internal and external environment, which is embodied in many contradictions, such as RMB appreciation pressure, aggravated foreign trade friction, asset price expansion and so on. Although the central bank of china has introduced a series of monetary policies, the effect is not obvious. Therefore, the effectiveness of monetary policy in our country, the choice of goal frame of monetary policy and so on deserve further study. In summary, under the basic framework of economic research, this paper, on the basis of extensive data collection, pays special attention to the combination of the application of the method and the research of the problem, and starts with the basic problem of China's economic growth, and carries out the choice of the target system of monetary policy in China. The full text is divided into seven chapters and specific contents. The following are the following: Chapter: Introduction. In this section, a general introduction of the whole text will be made, and the contents of three aspects are discussed separately. It is set forth, including research significance and research background, research methods and technical route, innovation point. Chapter II: Monetary Policy This chapter defines and analyzes the relevant concepts of monetary policy, and focuses on the concepts of monetary policy, intermediary target, ultimate goal, final objective rule and nominal anchor, which are closely related to the research of this paper. Secondly, the paper introduces the intermediary of monetary policy. The relevant theories of the selection of monetary policy mainly include the theory of monetary policy, Keynesian school and post-Keynesian school; once again, the relevant theories of the ultimate goal of monetary policy, including the time inconsistency theory of monetary policy, are introduced. The principle of monetary policy choice between the rules and the camera choice is analyzed and the Chinese goods are reviewed in the end. The evolution of currency policy. Chapter 3: Open Economy On the basis of theoretical analysis of the validity of monetary policy, based on the theoretical analysis of the validity of monetary policy, based on the historical evolution of monetary policy in China, variance decomposition and VAR model are adopted based on the historical evolution of monetary policy in China. An Empirical Model for the Evaluation and Analysis of China's Monetary Policy from Asian Gold Using Empirical Model The issue of the effectiveness of the crisis dependency. In this chapter, this article has passed since the financial crisis China's currency governance On the "Anti-Communication" of the Experience of Policy and Control contraction "Temperature-controlled spin-down anti-inflation" and The three stages of "insurance growth, deflation and inflation" establish an empirical model and establish an empirical model for the whole sample period. On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in China, Chapter Four: Open Economy The choice of medium target of money supply in China is based on the three standards selected by the medium target of monetary policy, and combined with the current situation in our country. The feasibility of monetary supply in China as an intermediary index of monetary policy is theoretically analyzed from four aspects: correlation, separability, controllability and conduction mechanism. Based on the empirical analysis, we draw the conclusion of the study. This chapter demonstrates whether the Taylor rule and its expanded form can well simulate the changing trend of monetary policy in our country from both theoretical and empirical aspects, and further analyzes the interest rate. No, as an intermediary target to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy, and on the basis of empirical conclusions, the Taylor rules are analyzed. The research conclusion of this chapter is that the interest rate rule is the policy rule based on the monetary authority's regulation of interest rate policy; the original Taylor rule does not apply to our country. The Taylor rules of the exhibition are more suitable for our country. Chapter 6: The choice of China's monetary policy target system under the open economy. This chapter first analyzes the current exchange rate target system, the currency target system and the inflation target system, and finds the inflation target. System, economy, technology and market are analyzed from four aspects: system, economy, technology and market. The condition that the inflation target system needs to meet is introduced in our country. Finally, the angle of minimizing the loss function of the central bank's monetary policy Development of theoretical model in hand An empirical study was carried out, and the results showed that Inflation Targeting The inflation deviation under the system is relatively smaller than that in the case of "camera choice mechanism". Therefore, our country can To make the inflation target into the future monetary policy orientation. Chapter 7: summarizes the overall research of this paper Conclusion: The paper gives the corresponding policy suggestions and puts forward the future research prospect. The paper makes an innovative research on the following aspects: Firstly, it not only evaluates the effective target of monetary policy formulation under the traditional research. Sex, and also analyzes the effectiveness of monetary policy in the selection of regulatory tools. The whole sample period is divided Secondly, many scholars in China do not have a clear distinction between the target of monetary policy and the most In the course of the study, the relationship between the target and the end target is clearly distinguished. The third, the feasibility, the influencing factor and the applicable strip of the medium target of the money supply in our country. On the basis of empirical test, the target of interest rate intermediary is deeply studied. By constructing a financial condition index, which contains the main asset and financial information, it is included in the Taylor rule, and all the other possible Taylor series are also studied. Through the comparative analysis of the rules, it is proved that the research model of this paper is applicable and reliable. Fourth, through the comparative analysis of the existing target system and flexible inflation target system in our country, the spirit is found. Living inflation target system is a viable option in China's monetary policy goal system. The flexible inflation target is derived through mathematical deduction. The optimal monetary rules under the system, and the application of China's actual data to carry out the empirical test. However, most
【學位授予單位】：南開大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.0

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本文編號：2305975