【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟全球化進程的不斷加快，2007年由美國次貸危機引發(fā)的全球金融海嘯給世界經(jīng)濟帶來了巨大的沖擊，世界各國都逐漸意識到消費金融對于本國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要作用。在我國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的背景下，消費作為促進經(jīng)濟增長的有效手段和途徑，在整個國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中的地位和作用日益凸顯。消費金融可以在一定程度上滿足消費者資金融通的需要，起到刺激國內(nèi)消費需求進而帶動我國經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展的目的。在我國，消費金融仍是一片新興的研究領(lǐng)域，回顧以往對消費金融的研究，主要是從消費金融的概念和范疇或微觀層面上消費者個人和家庭的消費金融狀況進行探討，，但從宏觀角度講，到底為什么要發(fā)展消費金融業(yè)務(wù)，消費金融的發(fā)展能否為我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展帶來切實的利益，都有待于我們進一步去深入地探討。 基于此，本文創(chuàng)新性地選取我國消費金融發(fā)展?fàn)顩r與居民消費需求之間的關(guān)系作為研究的切入點。本文首先對國內(nèi)外消費金融的研究現(xiàn)狀進行了評述，梳理了相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)理論，隨后從五個方面對我國消費金融發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀進行闡述，并分別從人口結(jié)構(gòu)、家庭生命周期、社會保障、消費者偏好和宏觀經(jīng)濟政策等方面定性分析了消費金融的影響因素。本文選取1997—2011年消費信貸余額和居民消費水平的數(shù)據(jù)作為衡量指標(biāo)，構(gòu)建了時間序列自回歸模型，并依次運用單位根檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗和格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗對回歸模型進行了驗證。通過實證分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，消費信貸余額與居民消費水平之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系，并得出消費金融發(fā)展能夠在一定程度上帶動居民消費水平提高這一重要結(jié)論，為消費金融在我國的發(fā)展提供了有力的理論支持。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the process of economic globalization, the global financial tsunami triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 has brought a tremendous impact to the world economy. All countries in the world have gradually realized the important role of consumer finance in their economic development. Under the background of the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of economic development mode, consumption, as an effective means and means to promote economic growth, is playing an increasingly important role in the development of the whole national economy. Consumer finance can meet the needs of consumer finance to a certain extent and stimulate domestic consumption demand and promote the sustainable development of our economy. In China, consumer finance is still a new research field. Reviewing the previous research on consumer finance, mainly from the concept and scope of consumer finance or micro-level consumer financial situation of consumers and households. But from the macro point of view, why should we develop consumer finance business, and whether the development of consumer finance can bring real benefits to the development of our country's economy needs to be further discussed. Based on this, this paper innovatively selects the relationship between the development of consumer finance and the consumption demand of residents as the starting point. This paper first reviews the current research situation of consumer finance at home and abroad, combs the basic theory of related research, then expounds the current situation of consumer finance development in China from five aspects, and respectively from the population structure, family life cycle. Social security, consumer preference and macroeconomic policy are analyzed qualitatively. In this paper, the data of the balance of consumer credit and the consumption level of residents from 1997 to 2011 are selected as indicators, and the time series autoregressive model is constructed, and the unit root test is used in turn. Cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to verify the regression model. Through the empirical analysis, it is found that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the balance of consumer credit and the consumption level of residents, and it is concluded that the development of consumer finance can promote the improvement of consumption level to a certain extent. For the development of consumer finance in China to provide a strong theoretical support.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.4;F126.1

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