人民幣國際化的作用、影響與路徑
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-20 13:11
【摘要】：國際化貨幣是指那些在發(fā)行國以外被廣泛用于貿(mào)易與金融交易計價與結(jié)算,并被外國公共及私人部門廣泛持有的貨幣。與國內(nèi)范疇的貨幣職能相同,國際化貨幣在國際范圍內(nèi)執(zhí)行計價單位、交易媒介以及價值儲藏三大職能。這些職能同時也是衡量該貨幣國際化程度的標準和依據(jù),具體來說,一種貨幣達到國際化貨幣的主要表現(xiàn)是：國內(nèi)企業(yè)廣泛使用本國貨幣作為其一部分或者全部出口貿(mào)易的計價貨幣;外國公司、金融機構(gòu)、政府及個人可以通過合法途徑持有該貨幣和相關(guān)金融資產(chǎn)等。 大部分國家都希望本國的貨幣可以國際化,這是因為對于私人部門來說,國際化可以幫助企業(yè)完全規(guī)避匯率風險；而對于公共部門,國際化可以使該國政府在國際金融市場上的借貸成本大大降低,而這種公共借貸開支的節(jié)省也會使私人部門融資的成本降低,從而為企業(yè)的發(fā)展提供一個更好的環(huán)境。同時,貨幣國際化也會給該國帶來一定的負面影響,這種風險一方面可以用著名的“蒙代爾三角”理論來解釋,另一方面,由于外國投資者的加入,為本國金融市場帶來了更多的風險因素。因此,一國貨幣的國際化,首先要權(quán)衡這種利益與風險的對比關(guān)系,即不應(yīng)冒進,也不要過于保守。在適當?shù)那闆r下,政府可以進行政策干預(yù),從而加速貨幣的國際化進程。 政府要推動國際化,首先要搞清楚貨幣國際化的決定因素,從而選擇合適的方法達到該目標。本文考察了美元的成功經(jīng)驗與日元失敗的教訓：美國在經(jīng)濟規(guī)模達到一定水平的情況下,為推動美元國際化建立了美聯(lián)儲,從而加強了投資者對市場的信心,同時支持銀行發(fā)行銀行承兌等金融產(chǎn)品,并在該市場形成的初期對其進行了合理的干預(yù)。此外,美國還開拓了歐洲美元的市場,極大的拓寬了美元國際使用的地域范圍,從而很快的使美元成為了最重要的國際貨幣。反觀日本,其推動日元國際化的時機選擇并不理想,且一直使用稅收等間接手段刺激日元的國際使用,這樣的方法以及日本經(jīng)濟在同期低迷的表現(xiàn)導致了日元國際化的失敗。這些經(jīng)驗說明,貨幣國際化的根本動力在于需求,一國經(jīng)濟總量和在國際貿(mào)易中的地位決定了這種需求。在此基礎(chǔ)上,政府可以推行開放的貨幣政策滿足國際需要,從而推動貨幣的國際化。 隨著發(fā)展中國家的發(fā)展,其在世界經(jīng)濟的整體份額已經(jīng)達到了一半左右,而且以我國為代表的發(fā)展中國家已經(jīng)在世界貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)中占據(jù)了非常重要的地位,因此,現(xiàn)在對于主要發(fā)展中國家貨幣國際化情況的考察是非常及時而且必要的。為此,本文考察了金磚五國貨幣的國際供需情況,并發(fā)現(xiàn)除人民幣外,其他四國貨幣的國際需求距離主要國際貨幣的水平還有很大的差距,而人民則是唯一具有在短期內(nèi)實現(xiàn)國際化潛質(zhì)的貨幣。以人民幣為首的發(fā)展中國家貨幣的國際化,可以為公共部門和私人部門的投資經(jīng)理提供更多樣的資產(chǎn)選擇,同時也有利于推動相關(guān)區(qū)域金融一體化進程及規(guī)避外匯風險。 為此,我國已經(jīng)制定了一系列推動人民幣國際化的政策并開展了相關(guān)工作。但是,我國為了積累人民幣在離岸市場的流動性,實施了鼓勵進口交易在離岸市場人民幣結(jié)算的政策。由于人民幣存在很強的升值預(yù)期,該政策誘使很多貿(mào)易商以貿(mào)易結(jié)算為名進行套利,這一方面不利于人民幣海外流動性的積累,同時還為離岸市場制造了巨大的風險。為了解決這一問題,我國應(yīng)該將人民幣國際化與開放資本賬戶結(jié)合起來,循序漸進的推動各項工作。 除了資本賬戶的開放,人民幣離岸市場的發(fā)展策略對國際化也具有舉足輕重的作用。我國已經(jīng)實行了一系列的優(yōu)惠政策來支持以香港為樞紐的離岸市場的發(fā)展。在短期內(nèi),倫敦和新加坡等后起之秀仍然無法替代香港在離岸市場中的核心地位,同時上海金融市場也很難達到一定的開放程度,因此,我國還是要以發(fā)展香港為中心,并利用香港的金融市場發(fā)達的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施等優(yōu)勢帶動其他市場的發(fā)展,從而全面推動人民幣的國際使用。 人民幣國家化的一個重要影響就是人民幣加入特別提款權(quán)貨幣籃子,這是對人民幣國際貨幣地位的一種官方承認,同時是否達到貨幣籃子的加入標準也是對人民幣國際化程度的一種考察。面對嚴峻的國際金融形勢,IMF希望人民幣于2015年加入特別提款權(quán)。根據(jù)本文論證,盡早加入雖然有利于我國的外匯儲備管理,但是卻并不利于我國金融市場的穩(wěn)定,而加快香港離岸市場的發(fā)展也會給在岸市場帶來風險。因此人民幣加入特別提款權(quán)不宜過急。恰當?shù)倪x擇時機是國際化成功的關(guān)鍵。
[Abstract]:Internationalized currencies refer to those currencies that are widely used in the valuation and settlement of trade and financial transactions outside the issuing country and are widely held by foreign public and private sectors. As with domestic monetary functions, international currencies perform three major functions in the international arena: unit of valuation, medium of exchange and value storage. It is also a standard and basis for measuring the degree of internationalization of a currency. Specifically, the main manifestations of a currency's internationalization are: domestic enterprises widely use their own currency as a denominator of part or all of their export trade; foreign companies, financial institutions, governments and individuals can hold the currency through legal channels. And related financial assets.
Most countries want their currencies internationalized, because internationalization can help companies avoid exchange rate risk altogether for the private sector; for the public sector, internationalization can greatly reduce the government's borrowing costs in the international financial market, and this savings in public borrowing costs can also make private. At the same time, the internationalization of the currency will also bring some negative effects on the country. On the one hand, this risk can be explained by the famous "Montreal Triangle" theory. On the other hand, the entry of foreign investors has brought about a better environment for the development of domestic financial markets. Therefore, the first step in the internationalization of a country's currency is to weigh the contrast between its interests and risks, that is, it should not be ventured or too conservative.
In order to promote the internationalization of the US dollar, the government must first find out the determinants of the internationalization of the currency and choose the right way to achieve this goal. Confidence in the market and support of banks in issuing financial products such as bank acceptance and reasonable intervention in the early stages of the market formation. In addition, the United States also opened up the European dollar market, greatly broadening the scope of international use of the dollar, thus quickly making the dollar the most important international currency. Essentially, the timing for the internationalization of the yen is not ideal, and indirect measures such as taxation have been used to stimulate the international use of the yen. This method and the performance of the Japanese economy in the same period of downturn have led to the failure of the internationalization of the yen. The position of international trade determines this demand. On this basis, the government can implement an open monetary policy to meet international needs, thus promoting the internationalization of money.
With the development of developing countries, their overall share in the world economy has reached about half, and the developing countries represented by China have occupied a very important position in the world trade network. Therefore, it is very timely and necessary to investigate the currency internationalization of the major developing countries. This paper examines the international supply and demand of BRICS currencies and finds that the international demand of the currencies of the other four countries is far from the level of the major international currencies except RMB, while the people are the only currencies with the potential to achieve internationalization in the short term. It can provide diversified asset choices for investment managers in both the public and private sectors, as well as promote regional financial integration and avoid foreign exchange risks.
To this end, China has formulated a series of policies to promote the internationalization of the RMB and has carried out related work. However, in order to accumulate the liquidity of the RMB in the offshore market, China has implemented a policy to encourage the RMB settlement of import transactions in the offshore market. Arbitrage in the name of trade settlement is not conducive to the accumulation of RMB overseas liquidity, but also creates a huge risk for offshore markets. In order to solve this problem, China should combine the internationalization of RMB with the opening of capital account, and gradually promote the work.
In addition to the opening of the capital account, the development strategy of the RMB offshore market also plays an important role in internationalization. Our country has implemented a series of preferential policies to support the development of the offshore market with Hong Kong as its hub. At the same time, Shanghai's financial market is also difficult to achieve a certain degree of openness. Therefore, China should take the development of Hong Kong as the center, and make use of the developed infrastructure of Hong Kong's financial market to promote the development of other markets, so as to promote the international use of the RMB in an all-round way.
An important influence of RMB nationalization is that RMB joins the SDR currency basket, which is an official recognition of RMB's International Monetary status. At the same time, whether the RMB meets the entry criteria of the currency basket is also an examination of the degree of RMB internationalization. According to this paper, it is not conducive to the stability of China's financial market to join the SDR as soon as possible, but it is not conducive to the stability of China's financial market. The acceleration of the development of the offshore market in Hong Kong will also bring risks to the onshore market. The key to success.
【學位授予單位】：南開大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6
本文編號：2193728
[Abstract]:Internationalized currencies refer to those currencies that are widely used in the valuation and settlement of trade and financial transactions outside the issuing country and are widely held by foreign public and private sectors. As with domestic monetary functions, international currencies perform three major functions in the international arena: unit of valuation, medium of exchange and value storage. It is also a standard and basis for measuring the degree of internationalization of a currency. Specifically, the main manifestations of a currency's internationalization are: domestic enterprises widely use their own currency as a denominator of part or all of their export trade; foreign companies, financial institutions, governments and individuals can hold the currency through legal channels. And related financial assets.
Most countries want their currencies internationalized, because internationalization can help companies avoid exchange rate risk altogether for the private sector; for the public sector, internationalization can greatly reduce the government's borrowing costs in the international financial market, and this savings in public borrowing costs can also make private. At the same time, the internationalization of the currency will also bring some negative effects on the country. On the one hand, this risk can be explained by the famous "Montreal Triangle" theory. On the other hand, the entry of foreign investors has brought about a better environment for the development of domestic financial markets. Therefore, the first step in the internationalization of a country's currency is to weigh the contrast between its interests and risks, that is, it should not be ventured or too conservative.
In order to promote the internationalization of the US dollar, the government must first find out the determinants of the internationalization of the currency and choose the right way to achieve this goal. Confidence in the market and support of banks in issuing financial products such as bank acceptance and reasonable intervention in the early stages of the market formation. In addition, the United States also opened up the European dollar market, greatly broadening the scope of international use of the dollar, thus quickly making the dollar the most important international currency. Essentially, the timing for the internationalization of the yen is not ideal, and indirect measures such as taxation have been used to stimulate the international use of the yen. This method and the performance of the Japanese economy in the same period of downturn have led to the failure of the internationalization of the yen. The position of international trade determines this demand. On this basis, the government can implement an open monetary policy to meet international needs, thus promoting the internationalization of money.
With the development of developing countries, their overall share in the world economy has reached about half, and the developing countries represented by China have occupied a very important position in the world trade network. Therefore, it is very timely and necessary to investigate the currency internationalization of the major developing countries. This paper examines the international supply and demand of BRICS currencies and finds that the international demand of the currencies of the other four countries is far from the level of the major international currencies except RMB, while the people are the only currencies with the potential to achieve internationalization in the short term. It can provide diversified asset choices for investment managers in both the public and private sectors, as well as promote regional financial integration and avoid foreign exchange risks.
To this end, China has formulated a series of policies to promote the internationalization of the RMB and has carried out related work. However, in order to accumulate the liquidity of the RMB in the offshore market, China has implemented a policy to encourage the RMB settlement of import transactions in the offshore market. Arbitrage in the name of trade settlement is not conducive to the accumulation of RMB overseas liquidity, but also creates a huge risk for offshore markets. In order to solve this problem, China should combine the internationalization of RMB with the opening of capital account, and gradually promote the work.
In addition to the opening of the capital account, the development strategy of the RMB offshore market also plays an important role in internationalization. Our country has implemented a series of preferential policies to support the development of the offshore market with Hong Kong as its hub. At the same time, Shanghai's financial market is also difficult to achieve a certain degree of openness. Therefore, China should take the development of Hong Kong as the center, and make use of the developed infrastructure of Hong Kong's financial market to promote the development of other markets, so as to promote the international use of the RMB in an all-round way.
An important influence of RMB nationalization is that RMB joins the SDR currency basket, which is an official recognition of RMB's International Monetary status. At the same time, whether the RMB meets the entry criteria of the currency basket is also an examination of the degree of RMB internationalization. According to this paper, it is not conducive to the stability of China's financial market to join the SDR as soon as possible, but it is not conducive to the stability of China's financial market. The acceleration of the development of the offshore market in Hong Kong will also bring risks to the onshore market. The key to success.
【學位授予單位】：南開大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6
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