【摘要】：物價的波動是貨幣政策重點關(guān)注的現(xiàn)象,很多國家將物價穩(wěn)定作為本國的貨幣政策目標。貨幣政策的調(diào)整影響利率和貨幣供應量這兩類金融指標,利率和貨幣供應量的變動又會對市場宏觀經(jīng)濟指標帶來影響。由于我國利率市場化程度不足,貨幣政策調(diào)控過程中利率渠道的作用相對不明顯,貨幣供應量成為我國貨幣政策調(diào)控工具的主力,國家通過對各層次貨幣供應量的調(diào)整應對社會物價的變化。 為了應對金融危機可能帶來的影響,我國政府在金融危機發(fā)生后推出了四萬億政策以刺激經(jīng)濟增長,這個時期的信貸擴張速度和貨幣供應量增加速度高于以往,隨后我國出現(xiàn)了較為顯著的通貨膨脹現(xiàn)象。這一輪物價上漲的特征不僅體現(xiàn)在全體商品物價的普遍上漲,而且部分商品出現(xiàn)了幅度非常明顯的價格波動,本文將關(guān)注此段時期的價格波動現(xiàn)象。 本文將首先從基礎(chǔ)理論和現(xiàn)狀兩方面分析貨幣供應量對生產(chǎn)消費過程中處于不同階段的商品價格帶來的影響,探討貨幣供應量對物價的普遍性影響以及貨幣供應量對產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈不同階段物價帶來的差異性變動。本文實證部分選取在生產(chǎn)消費過程中處于不同階段的物價指數(shù)與貨幣供應量構(gòu)建計量模型,通過實證方法驗證貨幣供應量對不同類型物價的影響。本文的結(jié)論是,貨幣供應量的變動會影響物價的普遍價格變化,也會帶來物價的相對價格變化,進而對我國資源配置、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和收入分配都帶來影響。因此,探討貨幣供應量與物價的關(guān)系對我國貨幣政策調(diào)控來說有非�，F(xiàn)實的經(jīng)濟意義,在貨幣政策制定過程中,應全面了解貨幣供應量對物價的影響情況�；诖�,本文提出系列建議：堅持以穩(wěn)定物價為貨幣政策目標、完善貨幣政策決策中的物價監(jiān)控機制、推進市場化商品價格形成機制。
[Abstract]:Price fluctuation is the focus of monetary policy. Many countries take price stability as their monetary policy goal. The adjustment of monetary policy affects the interest rate and money supply, and the change of interest rate and money supply will have an impact on the market macroeconomic indicators. Due to the lack of marketization of interest rates in China, the role of interest rate channels in the process of monetary policy regulation is relatively insignificant, and money supply has become the main instrument of monetary policy control in China. The state responds to changes in social prices by adjusting the money supply at all levels. In order to cope with the possible impact of the financial crisis, the Chinese government launched a 4 trillion policy to stimulate economic growth after the financial crisis. During this period, credit expansion and money supply increased faster than before. Then there is a relatively significant inflation phenomenon in China. The characteristics of this round of price rise are not only reflected in the general rise of commodity prices, but also in some commodities have a very obvious range of price fluctuations, this paper will pay attention to the price fluctuations in this period. This paper will first analyze the influence of money supply on commodity prices at different stages in the process of production and consumption from two aspects: basic theory and current situation. This paper probes into the general influence of money supply on price and the difference between money supply and price in different stages of industrial chain. The empirical part of this paper selects the price index and money supply which are in different stages in the process of production and consumption to construct the econometric model and verifies the influence of money supply on different types of prices through the empirical method. The conclusion of this paper is that the change of money supply will influence the general price of price and the relative price of price, which will affect the allocation of resources, the adjustment of industrial structure and the distribution of income. Therefore, discussing the relationship between money supply and price has very realistic economic significance for China's monetary policy regulation. In the process of monetary policy formulation, we should fully understand the influence of money supply on price. Based on this, this paper puts forward a series of suggestions: persist in taking stable price as monetary policy objective, perfect price monitoring mechanism in monetary policy decision, and promote market-oriented commodity price formation mechanism.
【學位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F726;F822.2

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